China Coronavirus

[five points]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

You'll struggle.
1. The Citywest and Nightingale temporary hospitals were white elephants.
2. Unprovable in the short term but the effects of 2020 undiagnosed cancers etc will probably shock us all in years to come.
3. In some recent years, excess deaths from flu have rivalled those from covid this year.
4. 100% correct.

[GetOverTheBar]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

1) That kind of data is easy displayed on the daily dashboard, to be fair, lots are not at full capacity as per yesterday, Antrim is over capacity. Not sure what happens when you are over capacity if you are shifted to another area, presumably so. ( https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-db-221120.pdf - Page 20/21)

2) At the risk of this thread going mental....possibly. Would you have went to a hospital when all kinds of stuff was going around in May etc? Not sure I would have. How has that manifested? We don't, maybe we won't ever know. I don't think that kind of data will be something that is easy found but there can be no doubt there is / has been a profound knock on effect.

3) https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu (WHO estimates 290-650k per year die of Flu/Flu related per year. Covid is currently 1.3 million deaths worldwide.....I expect you would get a bit of blowback about death certs not being questioned etc....but it's fairly obvious now Covid has a much greater ruthless streak....in years to come, maybe these figures will align with vaccines on the way).

4) Death Certs that are registered as Covid related are not questioned. You could argue either way here. Why would someone do that however? If our General Practitioners are that lax regarding something as simple as general admin accuracy. We have bigger problems. There are things go round about how Care Homes get more money if the death is Covid related, to be honest I'm genuinely not sure, it would make sense with deep cleans etc but again, we have bigger problems if that is what people are at seeking more cash. Covid is kind of an umbrella term for a lot of things that tends to be the cause of death in the elderly. It's an argument you could have for awhile.

[five points]

I would ask which hospitals for point 1. Most of them here at the minute seem pretty full and overall hospitals are at 100%+ occupancy.

I think that has been true when we are not in a "wave" but we currently are.

2 probably holds somewhere though how much who knows. 3 depends on 4 and 4 while there is some truth to some of it I think conspiracy theorists have latched onto it and I don't know how anyone would ever quantify it but I do believe it's skewed both ways and people have died at home with it too and not been recorded.

I know of a case where someone dropped dead at home from an apparent heart attack and the remains couldn't be released until a covid test was done.

[JoG2]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

Even with ICU numbers dropping in the last few weeks, 6 out of the 8 hospitals are currently in 'surge' state. A couple more patients admitted to ICU and then the big decisions have to be made ie who lives and who dies.

And point number 2, the way hospitals are operating now ie services continuing along side covid fire fighting is very different to March / Paril when we were all facing into the unknown

[LCohen]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

It might seem an odd question but by any chance are you a chemical engineer by trade?

[JoG2]

Oxford vaccine at least 70% effective and likely to be 90% effective in certain dosage combinations. The best plan seems to be a low dose followed by a second slightly higher dose.
This is a really good, as this is already being produced and the logistics are straightforward as it can be kept in the fridge.

But we've been told repeatedly on here that science has failed us!! All messing aside, it's great news so far

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

1-Not empty but not full
2-Absolutely true
3-Not sure
4-True

[armaghniac]

2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.

Lockdown reduces pressure on the health services so likely improves life expectancy, so the opposite is true here.
Cancellation of other services has an adverse effect of course, but this is inevitable if you have more sick people, the only strategy to avoid this is to reduce the number of Covid patients. In general, you cannot conjure up more staff in order to greatly expand services.

4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

In the 6 counties, about 20,000 have had Covid in the last month or 1.1% of the population. Say that some people were not diagnosed so 2% of people had it. If Covid and death are not correlated then you would expect 2% of dead people to also have it. In October about 1500 people die in NI, so if Covid and death were not correlated than you would expect 60 of these to have Covid. But the Covid deaths are a couple of hundred higher than that. So somewhat true, but not very true.

In general, if someone is contending at this stage that Covid is just flu then I would remove them from my list of friends.

[johnnycool]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

1-Not empty but not full
2-Absolutely true
3-Not sure
4-True

The Ulster is operating at 110% capacity allegedly, but that wouldn't be anything exceptional for it. Dire hospital for A&E.

[JimStynes]

Rumours of schools closing early. So lockdown for 2 weeks and then when that's over, close the schools? So the children that are not in school can run about the shopping centres with their mates.

To placate the teachers and their unions I assume

Any of the teachers I know don't want the schools to close early. The extra week off will just be added in somewhere else in the year. Also, why have schools trained in online learning and then not let schools use this?

[lurganblue]

Oxford vaccine at least 70% effective and likely to be 90% effective in certain dosage combinations. The best plan seems to be a low dose followed by a second slightly higher dose.
This is a really good, as this is already being produced and the logistics are straightforward as it can be kept in the fridge.

But we've been told repeatedly on here that science has failed us!! All messing aside, it's great news so far

Having read the BBC article on how they've developed this so quickly I suddenly have some grounds for hope... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55041371

I know, I know... never trust the BBC

[Orior]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

It might seem an odd question but by any chance are you a chemical engineer by trade?

Nope. I'm in IT, and my friend is a landlord.

[LCohen]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

It might seem an odd question but by any chance are you a chemical engineer by trade?

Nope. I'm in IT, and my friend is a landlord.

Thanks for that.

(I assume you know why I had to ask?)

[Jeepers Creepers]

Oxford vaccine at least 70% effective and likely to be 90% effective in certain dosage combinations. The best plan seems to be a low dose followed by a second slightly higher dose.
This is a really good, as this is already being produced and the logistics are straightforward as it can be kept in the fridge.

But we've been told repeatedly on here that science has failed us!! All messing aside, it's great news so far

Having read the BBC article on how they've developed this so quickly I suddenly have some grounds for hope... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55041371

I know, I know... never trust the BBC

Following a good twitter thread today about this exact question. People saying they are not taking this vaccine that has been 'rushed' whereas previous ones take 10 years. A guy on claiming to be involved in that line of work countering that argument saying in this usual 10 years very little is done bar waiting for papers to be signed and fund raising to move onto next stage.   

[imtommygunn]

I have a friend who firmly believes that the lockdowns are a complete over-reaction.
1) They claim that covid wards in some hospitals are practically empty.
2) They claim that lockdown and cancellation of hospital services has killed people for reasons other than covid.
3) They claim that flu kills just as many as covid
4) They claim that the death stats are severely skewed because many people have died in hospital from non-covid but get counted as covid

Can anyone help me counteract these arguments?

You'll struggle.
1. The Citywest and Nightingale temporary hospitals were white elephants.
2. Unprovable in the short term but the effects of 2020 undiagnosed cancers etc will probably shock us all in years to come.
3. In some recent years, excess deaths from flu have rivalled those from covid this year.
4. 100% correct.

Wrt point 1- I don't think them being white elephants takes away from capacity issues. To me I agree they are white elephants but not because they are not needed because they are in the wrong place and they are a bit more of a political stunt than anything. Extra beds could have been provided elsewhere. As someone said to me with the nightingale one - it was placed in the middle of the hospital with the most immuno deficient people out there. That wasn't an NHS decision - it was political.