Counting Possessions

[OgraAnDun]

Fair play for analysing it to such an extent AZ. Hope the Tipp CB are remunerating you for the time spent on this in expectation of a date with Dublin in September!

[brokencrossbar1]

Lies, damned lies...

I was at a game 2 weeks ago. 1 player, 10 or so possessions'. 1 goal, final pass on 3 goals and 1 point, final pass to 2 players who were subsequently fouled and the free scored, 1 touch where he was fouled and free scored. Now he was a full forward and that's his job but possession on its own its a false stat in my view. Think of Arsenal or Liverpool under Rodgers, lots of possession, no cutting edge. The flip side to that is the likes of United under Ferguson. Not concerned about possession but had real cutting edge. Football is going through a phase at the minute. I still don't understand why teams don't go full court press man to man instead of a zone to borrow basketball parlance. Once a manager has the balls to go for it I think it will flip the coin the other way.

[AZOffaly]

Agree fully about statistics. Stats without context are useless. I've always maintained that. Stats with context are very useful when applied to a specific problem or solution. Example, given Dublin knew Donegal would sit back, they determined to get Kilkenny as many touches as possible, and his instruction, I'm sure, was to retain the ball at all costs, try and switch the play from side to side, and inject pace into a move when possible.

A stats man from Kerry will be looking at that and saying, well, #1 it's probably useless because that won't happen against us. But if it does happen, Jaysus put a man marker on him. Pressure every possession he has and turn a few of those retentions into dispossessions, and you're away at a hack.I admire managers and coaches that can look at a stat, look at a game and marry the two to give them something useful to work on or work against.  I hate it when people quote stats like 'they only won 75% of their kickouts', whereas the opposition won 90% of theirs. The question is 'why' and what can you do about it, or with it?

[brokencrossbar1]

Context is everything but what had happened now is that the stats are seen as a truth in themselves. The funny thing about Kilkenny for instance is I fully believe he is wasted in his role the way he plays. He should spend the majority of his time sitting around the opposition 45 where he has the potential to cut them open. There is just too much fear in the box. I'd love to see a manger unleash the beast and bloody go for it. Mark all the men on kick outs. Press up on them and don't let them settled into their movements. Go and bloody win the game. It can actually be done if the basic skills are worked on.

[OgraAnDun]

Context is everything but what had happened now is that the stats are seen as a truth in themselves. The funny thing about Kilkenny for instance is I fully believe he is wasted in his role the way he plays. He should spend the majority of his time sitting around the opposition 45 where he has the potential to cut them open. There is just too much fear in the box. I'd love to see a manger unleash the beast and bloody go for it. Mark all the men on kick outs. Press up on them and don't let them settled into their movements. Go and bloody win the game. It can actually be done if the basic skills are worked on.

If a team plays marks 11 of the opposition's outfield players (leaving the 3 full backs marking 3 full forwards) whilst they are massed in or behind midfield, all it takes is three skillful full forwards left with acres of space, one good ball and possibly a runner coming through to rip them open.

[AZOffaly]

To be fair, I don't think Kilkenny would play like that, or be so lateral, against a Kerry or a Mayo or a Tipp. Those teams will play with more men around that area of the field, so it won't be an option to play keep ball there, and it will be more dangerous for Dublin, who love to attack, to do just that.

His game against Donegal was essentially a basketball point guard with no shot clock. He handled in nearly every possession, he directed traffic, he decided whether to go left or right, forward or back and he took his own sweet time in doing so. In a more open game, he'd be a different animal. If they play him at wing back, and he actually plays more like a wing back, then I think he might not enjoy it as much as he obviously did last weekend.

Against Westmeath, they pulled back at least 2 sweepers as well, but they contested the middle third, and you didn't see nearly as much lateral stuff.

I think Kilkenny will be used in whatever way makes sense, I wouldn't worry about him being pigeon holed like that. I'd be shocked if the game has the same shape v Kerry.

That role you are proposing for Kilkenny may well materialise, and that is the role I would love to see Gooch play for Kerry against Dublin. Float around the attacking 45, try and get on ball and directly influence attacks. A lot of Kilkenny's influence was indirect in terms of the final ball, but he was setting tempo and direction. Gooch would be more of a direct provider and scorer, and Kilkenny could do the same for the Dubs if they decide to try that.

[rosnarun]

As with all numbers the larger the sample the more accurate the deductions.
if Kilkenny has 50 plus Possessions in every game over a year or more then I think you could say he was a pivotal player compare to a player who toches the ball 7 or 8 times in a match,
A one off sample really doesn't tell you anything more than he the bare fact he handled the ball a lot.
its also possible that the wrong player gets too much possession the lad that's always shouting for the ball and does feck all good with it

[AZOffaly]

As with all numbers the larger the sample the more accurate the deductions.
if Kilkenny has 50 plus Possessions in every game over a year or more then I think you could say he was a pivotal player compare to a player who toches the ball 7 or 8 times in a match,
A one off sample really doesn't tell you anything more than he the bare fact he handled the ball a lot.
its also possible that the wrong player gets too much possession the lad that's always shouting for the ball and does feck all good with it

Absolutely. But I'm just talking about this match re his possession stats.
And he definitely wasn't the wrong player, it was the plan (for this match), you could see the Dubs looking for him.

[ashman]

Kilkenny was very poor for the first 20 minutes on Saturday

he was dispossessed at least 3 times

I think Ciaran Kilkenny is  overrated . Huge fitness level but nothing special.  Think any of the Dublin squad could have done that role tbh .

[Zulu]

That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.

[joemamas]

That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.

Zulu,

He may not be overrated, and to his credit did recover from a bad injury,  but how someone who is in reverse gear more than he is in forward gear, can be the favorite for footballer of the year does smell a little hype don't you think.

Saw him playing twice in the flesh this year, league final, where he hung around unmarked for last fifteen minutes between the two fifties and did get a lot of "possessions", but basically went lateral or backwards with more than 75% of same.

Ditto last Sunday, except he was doing it with almost twenty minutes to go, granted they were a man down.

Call me a traditionalist, or just old, but the sight of a talented footballer running back towards his own goal with the ball not even looking for somebody to pass it to, drives me crazy, as it did a few Dub supporters around me.

[AZOffaly]

That sprint back towards his own goal ended with Paul Mannion's goal

[ashman]

That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.

He is a good footballer and by all accounts is a sound skin .