6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[oakleaflad]

Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?

Us vs Them suits Nolan

[Snapchap]

Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?

Us vs Them suits Nolan

Because most of those who complain about Nolan, continue to listen to him on a daily basis in huge numbers, instead of doing the responsible thing and boycotting him and his toxic sewer of a show.

[Mourne Red]

Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?

Rumour is Jamie knows something about Nolan’s private life

[imtommygunn]

The problem is enough listen for it to influence people - and the wrong kind of people at that. I wouldn't go anywhere near it but it's clear it is not having a positive influence on society in any way shape or form.

[armaghniac]

South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Alliance are targeting South Down, but if a few drift to SDLP from SF the SDLP may hold their seat. The Unionist side is interesting, with the former UU candidate up for the TUV and a new DUP face who might appeal to some more than Wells.
You can't beat a PR election.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Is Bryson running?

Why does Nolan give him so much oxygen?

Rumour is Jamie knows something about Nolan’s private life

Sure didn't even Gregory Campbell semi threaten Nolan with the big reveal of the world's worst kept secret on live TV

[Armagh18]

South Down might see a drop in the vote for the shinners due to Emma Rogan non-attendance and Sinead Ennis social media crap. But Cathy Mason is a sound girl and I expect 2 sf, 2 stoops and one unionist to get the seats. It will be interesting to see who will get the unionist vote as Harold McKee is now TUV and would be well known and respected in the Kilkeel area. Will the offical unionists follow him?

Newry and Armagh should be interesting with independent Gavin Malone throwing his hat into the ring. He seems to be well got in the area and it could put an sf seat in that area at risk

Malone be a near cert I’d say. Seems a decent enough skin but probably better suited to local issues.

What Shinner will get ousted then if he gets in

Hard to say. You’d think Boylann and Murphy are certs but Liz Kimmins would be fairly well got  around Newry as well.

[yellowcard]

Hoax bomb targeted at Simon Coveney sanctioned by UVF. Brick put through Doug Beatties office window. Loyalist intimidation of nationalist candidates putting up posters and other posters being burnt. The loyalist election strategy propping up the DUP is in full swing.

[Feckitt]

In South Down there is a lot of talk about the SDLP seat being at risk from Paddy Brown Alliance, but at the last Westminster election a low profile SDLP candidate almost caught Chris Hazzard SF.  This is natural SDLP territory and SF have a very poor and unlikeable candidate in Sinead Ennis who I think could be more at risk of losing out.

[Truth hurts]

I think McGrath has done enough in the area since the last election to warrant a seat, Paddy Brown is a good worker as well. Mason is also a good worker but people are not happy with how SF handled the Rogan not attendance.

[Harold Disgracey]

I’m in Newry & Armagh and have never heard of Gavin Malone. Where is he based? I still go for 3 shinners, one stoop and one DUP, if Willie Irwin is running.

[Feckitt]

I’m in Newry & Armagh and have never heard of Gavin Malone. Where is he based? I still go for 3 shinners, one stoop and one DUP, if Willie Irwin is running.

He's a very popular Independent Councillor from Newry. He's Newrier than a Friar Tucks boorger and a Timoneys ice cream.
I'd say he will get a lot of votes round Newry and if he can stay ahead of the low profile Liz Kimmins SF he could benefit from Alliance party transfers.  Maybe a long shot but not impossible

[Harold Disgracey]

I’m in Newry & Armagh and have never heard of Gavin Malone. Where is he based? I still go for 3 shinners, one stoop and one DUP, if Willie Irwin is running.

He's a very popular Independent Councillor from Newry. He's Newrier than a Friar Tucks boorger and a Timoneys ice cream.
I'd say he will get a lot of votes round Newry and if he can stay ahead of the low profile Liz Kimmins SF he could benefit from Alliance party transfers.  Maybe a long shot but not impossible

Thought that might be the case. He’ll need to pick up a lot of the Newry vote to stay in the race as I can’t see him picking up too many votes in the Armagh/Keady areas.

[tbrick18]

The state of NI politics with the DUP and Shinners dominant is interesting and reminds me of an Adlai Stevenson quote.
During the session in the Assembly to remember Christopher Stalford  the more erudite speeches came from the SDLP, Alliance and UUP benches.
Some of the Shinner and DUP MLAs were atrocious.

https://quotepark.com/authors/adlai-stevenson/?msclkid=2bffcc4baec711ec8f40b9148e2a3d31
The supposed response to a woman who called out to him: "Governor, you have the vote of every thinking person!" during one of his presidential campaigns. T
„That's not enough, madam, we need a majority!“

The standard of politician across the board in the 6 counties is definitely not great. Very few of them could hold their own in a serious debate hence the reason why the same politicians are wheeled out time and time again. On the other hand when it comes to social media presence there are plenty of charlatans about.

It's about as good as the standard in Westminster or in the south.
Very poor political leadership in this part of the world currently.
But in saying all that, I think Mary-Lou is a credible politician.

[tbrick18]

LucidTalk poll for Belfast Telegraph at the weekend:

SF 26% (+1 from Jan)

DUP 19% (+2)

Alliance 16% (+2)

UUP 13% (-1)

SDLP 11% (-)
 
TUV 9% (-3)

Have the Nationalist parties peaked? 37% is hardly an endorsement for a border poll. Obviously it's only an opinion poll but I thought the two of them combined has circa 43% at one stage?

Not sure we could equate this to what the results of a border poll would be.
There are Nationalists now who will be voting Alliance. There will be unionists who would vote for a UI as a means to return to the EU. The non-hardline-unionist.
Brexit has probably been the single biggest driving factor in making people who would never have entertained it, now consider a UI as a viable option.