Catalan Independence Movement

Started by gallsman, September 21, 2017, 10:37:37 AM

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OgraAnDun

Quote from: CiKe on September 23, 2017, 12:16:28 PM
Quote from: gallsman on September 23, 2017, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: StGallsGAA on September 23, 2017, 10:30:17 AM
Presumably if Catalonia goes the Basques will be next?

No. Completely different independence question altogether.

Why? If Cataluña goes, the chances of basques going increases exponentially I would think

The Basques get to keep their tax receipts and are generally content with being a highly autonomous region. If you go up into the mountains it's a different story but in the major towns and cities (along with pretty much all of Álava).

CiKe

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 10:56:01 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 23, 2017, 12:16:28 PM
Quote from: gallsman on September 23, 2017, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: StGallsGAA on September 23, 2017, 10:30:17 AM
Presumably if Catalonia goes the Basques will be next?

No. Completely different independence question altogether.

Why? If Cataluña goes, the chances of basques going increases exponentially I would think

The Basques get to keep their tax receipts and are generally content with being a highly autonomous region. If you go up into the mountains it's a different story but in the major towns and cities (along with pretty much all of Álava).

I'm aware (i'm married to a Basque) but the precedent set would still increase chances significantly. Wouldn't happen overnight but would happen before any other region, so I'd argue the answer to St Galls question would be "Yes, if anyone else leaves after Cataluña, the Basques would almost certainly be next"

Main Street

Quote from: seafoid on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 22, 2017, 05:24:07 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 21, 2017, 12:43:20 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on September 21, 2017, 12:33:40 PM
Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.
50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit
What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.


OgraAnDun

Quote from: CiKe on September 24, 2017, 01:15:36 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 10:56:01 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 23, 2017, 12:16:28 PM
Quote from: gallsman on September 23, 2017, 10:35:34 AM
Quote from: StGallsGAA on September 23, 2017, 10:30:17 AM
Presumably if Catalonia goes the Basques will be next?

No. Completely different independence question altogether.

Why? If Cataluña goes, the chances of basques going increases exponentially I would think

The Basques get to keep their tax receipts and are generally content with being a highly autonomous region. If you go up into the mountains it's a different story but in the major towns and cities (along with pretty much all of Álava).

I'm aware (i'm married to a Basque) but the precedent set would still increase chances significantly. Wouldn't happen overnight but would happen before any other region, so I'd argue the answer to St Galls question would be "Yes, if anyone else leaves after Cataluña, the Basques would almost certainly be next"

I'd agree that they'd be the next if Spain were to break up further but I don't think Catalan independence will prove to be a catalyst for the Basques to establish an independent state. I think it would have more of an effect in the rest of the Catalan countries (Valencia and the Balearics). But it's a matter of opinion really, I'm unsure if the vote will be able to go ahead in Catalunya anyway with the extra police and ballot papers stolen.

bennydorano

It's a fiasco by this stage, Madrid delivering 100 Christmases at once to the separatists. Anything from this point on is inconsequential in terms of votes cast etc.. Longterm irreparable damage has been done and god knows how Madrid can get this situation back on an even keel.

gallsman

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 04:58:19 PM
I'd agree that they'd be the next if Spain were to break up further but I don't think Catalan independence will prove to be a catalyst for the Basques to establish an independent state. I think it would have more of an effect in the rest of the Catalan countries (Valencia and the Balearics). But it's a matter of opinion really, I'm unsure if the vote will be able to go ahead in Catalunya anyway with the extra police and ballot papers stolen.

This is the point I was trying to make - I don't think Basque independence is any more or less likely because of this.

Quote from: bennydorano on September 24, 2017, 05:52:58 PM
It's a fiasco by this stage, Madrid delivering 100 Christmases at once to the separatists. Anything from this point on is inconsequential in terms of votes cast etc.. Longterm irreparable damage has been done and god knows how Madrid can get this situation back on an even keel.

That is certainly true. Spanish politics at a local, regional and national level is very fragmented at the minute. Rajoy is in a very precarious position with a minority government.

CiKe

Not seen it yet but Puigdemont was apparently ripped to shreds by a Catalan journalist on his weekly Sunday evening show. Twitter saying the guy has done more damage to the independence movement in 1hr than the Government in 6 years.

Journalist is normally very good so looking forward to this immensely! Puigdemont is about as mediocre as they come. Some of those in Storming would make him look bad...

CiKe

Quote from: Main Street on September 24, 2017, 01:55:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 22, 2017, 05:24:07 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 21, 2017, 12:43:20 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on September 21, 2017, 12:33:40 PM
Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.
50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit
What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.

Overwhelming political mandate? They basically illegally forced through legislation to allow the referendum. Although the Catalan parliament had majority of seats in favour of independence (52 to 48, I think it was, hardly overwhelming), this did not represent a majority of the popular vote

The tragedy is that the "no" vote will be split between those not voting as don't want to legitimise the referendum and those that vote no, meaning there could easily be this unilateral declaration of independence after a yes vote despite the participation rates being extremely low.


OgraAnDun

Those no voters refusing to turn up will have themselves to blame in those circumstances, as they've been clear from the start that Sí means Sí regardless of turnout.

CiKe

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 10:46:19 PM
Those no voters refusing to turn up will have themselves to blame in those circumstances, as they've been clear from the start that Sí means Sí regardless of turnout.

That is one way of looking at it. Another is that the people who started disregarding due democratic process were the independentistas and the "referendum" has already been ruled illegal. In my view they are in no way deserving of sympathy.

Even if central government response has appeared heavy handed, this is exactly what independentistas wanted.

I just can't get over the surge in support for independence since "la crisis". To me it just smacks of callous economic opportunism and self-interest, wrapped up in this "different language and culture" bollocks. Far from the only country with more than one language, and the Catalan culture is more similar to culture in rest of Spain than it is to anywhere else, even if there are some differences.


gallsman

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 10:46:19 PM
Those no voters refusing to turn up will have themselves to blame in those circumstances, as they've been clear from the start that Sí means Sí regardless of turnout.

Nah - it doesn't matter what Puigdemont says. The referendum is illegal and unconstitutional. The legislation brought through the Generalitat broke parliamentary rules so the "democracy in action" line is balls.

Why would no voters bother to turn up in such circumstances? All they'd do is lend legitimacy to the whole debacle.


OgraAnDun

Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 12:15:07 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 24, 2017, 10:46:19 PM
Those no voters refusing to turn up will have themselves to blame in those circumstances, as they've been clear from the start that Sí means Sí regardless of turnout.

Nah - it doesn't matter what Puigdemont says. The referendum is illegal and unconstitutional. The legislation brought through the Generalitat broke parliamentary rules so the "democracy in action" line is balls.

Why would no voters bother to turn up in such circumstances? All they'd do is lend legitimacy to the whole debacle.

It depends through which prism you view the situation. Consistently denying a region/country which sees itself as distinct the opportunity for self-determination legitimises anti-constitutional action in my opinion. AFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue. It would be a bit like a Frenchman saying in 1917 or 1918 that Ireland shouldn't be able to vote on independence because in English law it says we can't (I now it's not an identical situation but you understand the point I'm trying to make).
This is what Madrid gets for centralising everything there and looking down their noses at the rest of the country. Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

gallsman

#57
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

Main Street

Quote from: CiKe on September 24, 2017, 10:39:46 PM
Quote from: Main Street on September 24, 2017, 01:55:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 22, 2017, 05:24:07 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 21, 2017, 12:43:20 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on September 21, 2017, 12:33:40 PM
Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.
50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit
What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.

Overwhelming political mandate? They basically illegally forced through legislation to allow the referendum. Although the Catalan parliament had majority of seats in favour of independence (52 to 48, I think it was, hardly overwhelming), this did not represent a majority of the popular vote

Pro-sovereignty coalition has a majority of 20 or so in the Catalan parliament
The popular mandate for holding a referendum was overwhelming in favour of, some 75%  and that still continues.
Latest polls, despite the misleading headlines  and blatant spin in this article from El Pais, the polls still indicate an overwhelming yes vote
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/07/21/inenglish/1500633835_182589.html
"67.5% of people polled by the CEO said they will vote in the October 1 referendum if it goes ahead, with 62.4% of this group saying they would vote yes and 37.6% saying they would vote no"

QuoteThe tragedy is that the "no" vote will be split between those not voting as don't want to legitimise the referendum and those that vote no, meaning there could easily be this unilateral declaration of independence after a yes vote despite the participation rates being extremely low.
You have some crystal ball there :D  Do you have any evidence?
The CEO opinion poll indicates that  68% of those polled, will vote.

OgraAnDun

Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

As regards the first one, see above about legitimising anti-constitutional action. Rajoy and Madrid shouldn't be able to stop self-determination for a nation/people/region (delete according to your viewpoint).

About the AVE, I stand corrected then.