Russia invades Ukraine Feb 2022

[Main Street]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

The Germans have built up decent stocks and the high prices mean that people will cut back their use a bit.
Putin can sell to China, although there may not be pipelines running that direction. But Russia may find the Chinese are not the ideal customer either, one big customer can put pressure on you.

Lets not forget about India either.

If the likes of China and India start buying gas from Russia for way less than it's trading on the international markets a lot of other countries will be tempted to get in on that action....

Russia has not the infrastructure to pipe gas in any serious quantity from the Siberian reserves. As i wrote earlier, without sales to Europe they are fecked. At best they can pipe 50% of Europeans sales 2021 towards Asia by 2030. Currently they can only pipe 30% and at severely discounted prices to Asia. The Kremlin boast about their alternative, a pivot towards Asia was full of hot air. They expected European countries to fold.

[imtommygunn]

I don't know anything about oil pipelines etc etc but like you say I suspect if it could have happened by now it would have happened by now.

[seafoid]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

The Germans have built up decent stocks and the high prices mean that people will cut back their use a bit.
Putin can sell to China, although there may not be pipelines running that direction. But Russia may find the Chinese are not the ideal customer either, one big customer can put pressure on you.

Lets not forget about India either.

If the likes of China and India start buying gas from Russia for way less than it's trading on the international markets a lot of other countries will be tempted to get in on that action....

Russia has not the infrastructure to pipe gas in any serious quantity from the Siberian reserves. As i wrote earlier, without sales to Europe they are fecked. At best they can pipe 50% of Europeans sales 2021 towards Asia by 2030. Currently they can only pipe 30% and at severely discounted prices to Asia. The Kremlin boast about their alternative, a pivot towards Asia was full of hot air. They expected European countries to fold.

https://www.ft.com/content/25451156-434a-4c36-96ef-774d99c89688
The best geological prospects for a game changer akin to what happened in the 2010s lie with the huge Bazhenov shale oil formation in Siberia. But western sanctions mean that the prospect of western oil majors helping Russia technologically is a geopolitical dead end.  

[Main Street]

 Seafold , you need offer a 12 foot ladder with each of those exclusive subscription links.

[armaghniac]

Seafold , you need offer a 12 foot ladder with each of those exclusive subscription links.

One should have a subscription to the FT to better manage one's investments.

[seafoid]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1570493649284378628

[seafoid]

Evidence of systematic torture in the areas around Kharkiv recently recaptured by Ukraine. Loads of disappeared. The Shankill butchers would be amateurs compared to the Russian Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-aims-to-consolidate-gains-in-kharkiv-biden-says-war-will-be-long-haul-live

[Itchy]

Evidence of systematic torture in the areas around Kharkiv recently recaptured by Ukraine. Loads of disappeared. The Shankill butchers would be amateurs compared to the Russian Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-aims-to-consolidate-gains-in-kharkiv-biden-says-war-will-be-long-haul-live

Was it as good as the torture chambers run the Brits and Yanks? Doesnt look to have as good technology. Russian torture is miles behind the west

[An Watcher]

Well said itchy, let he without sin and all that

[LeoMc]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

The Germans have built up decent stocks and the high prices mean that people will cut back their use a bit.
Putin can sell to China, although there may not be pipelines running that direction. But Russia may find the Chinese are not the ideal customer either, one big customer can put pressure on you.

Lets not forget about India either.

If the likes of China and India start buying gas from Russia for way less than it's trading on the international markets a lot of other countries will be tempted to get in on that action....

Russia has not the infrastructure to pipe gas in any serious quantity from the Siberian reserves. As i wrote earlier, without sales to Europe they are fecked. At best they can pipe 50% of Europeans sales 2021 towards Asia by 2030. Currently they can only pipe 30% and at severely discounted prices to Asia. The Kremlin boast about their alternative, a pivot towards Asia was full of hot air. They expected European countries to fold.

https://www.ft.com/content/25451156-434a-4c36-96ef-774d99c89688
The best geological prospects for a game changer akin to what happened in the 2010s lie with the huge Bazhenov shale oil formation in Siberia. But western sanctions mean that the prospect of western oil majors helping Russia technologically is a geopolitical dead end. 

China will do what is best for China in the medium and long term. It would have been in their interest to see the conflict continue and the West having to get involved militarily as it would have kept focus away from the South China Sea.
With Russia starting to look weak and the US able to keep an eye on their expansion southwards the Chinese may well be eyeing an expansion northwards. All those natural resources and a weakened Russia.

[seafoid]

China and Russia are allies who think the west is weakening. If UKraine had been a success for Putin , China might have attacked Taiwan

[tbrick18]

Russia's budget surplus evaporates as energy revenues shrink
August figures suggest sharp drop in receipts from oil and gas exports

https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e

That link requires a  FT subscription.

12 foot ladder is your friend.

https://12ft.io/

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fd9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e

Thats a new one for me! Nice one 

[seafoid]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62931224

[Main Street]

Well said itchy, let he without sin and all that

Whataboutery nonsense
I am without sin and I call them torture chambers.

[Main Street]