Russia invades Ukraine Feb 2022

[Main Street]

 The 12 foot ladder . That's a good one.

[seafoid]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62899474

[Ash Smoker]

Russia has pumped serious money into disruption and disinformation in the West.
I can imagine that daft idiots like Clare Daly and Mick Wallace are easy converts to start spouting Russia propaganda.
However, I bet Ewan MacKenna would churn out the pro-Putin, anti-Zelensky stuff for free, just to get attention.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1569739548812345356

[Main Street]

Ukraine, a country where teachers go to war to defend their schoolchildren from russian marauders.

Ukrainian pupils meet their teacher Roman Palamarchuk who visits them from the frontline
https://youtu.be/RaTr6Yt_H1c

[johnnycool]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

[armaghniac]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

The Germans have built up decent stocks and the high prices mean that people will cut back their use a bit.
Putin can sell to China, although there may not be pipelines running that direction. But Russia may find the Chinese are not the ideal customer either, one big customer can put pressure on you.

[imtommygunn]

IF, and that's an if, putin is making the balls of this war etc that the media would have you believe then you would wonder would there be someone from within who would overthrow him.

[Milltown Row2]

IF, and that's an if, putin is making the balls of this war etc that the media would have you believe then you would wonder would there be someone from within who would overthrow him.

With the money possibly drying up (well no where near it was) someone is bound to be plotting something, the rich Russians have lost so much already around Europe and beyond that there has to be discussions on how to end it with saving face or overthrow him and be done with it

[Main Street]

The buzz word is pivot, the question is can Russia pivot its gas supplies to Asia?
'Yes they can' but due to many difficulties the most optimistic forecast is that by 2030 they can supply Asia with about 50% of what they use to sell to Europe (2021 figures 160 bcm billion cubic meters).
https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-russia-execute-gas-pivot-asia

Currently, with doable adjustments they can pipe 30 bcm  to Asia 
But due to sanctions,  essential western companies have pulled out, missing tech know how and equipment, they can not increase that flow in the short term and even long term there are limits, max 80bcm p/a

Add to that, they will have absolutely no bargaining power with China, essentially  just China's bitch.
Might not even be economically viable to extract gas.
Their army is a paper tiger, Putin and cronies have siphoned off hundreds of billions over the years, their incredible resource rich economy is facing disaster. One of the worst decisions ever made to invade Ukraine, compounded by disaster after disaster, both on the battlefield and on the propaganda front. Russia are the pariahs of the western world, as Arthur Koestler poetically put it, " the scúm of the earth"
The Kremlin cannot send in more troops, they refuse to go.
Their army is sh'it, their so called crack troops, the 431 parachute regiment  were shot to pieces outside Kiev and more recently the Kremlin's own Tank Guard have been decimated. For the first time ever the 431 elite parachute regiment did not march in that Moscow parade.

Even if the Kremlin declared war, it's too late to save the day. The Ukraine Army will have punched so many hole in the Kherson region they will be able to throw stones across into Crimea.

[Main Street]

[LeoMc]

IF, and that's an if, putin is making the balls of this war etc that the media would have you believe then you would wonder would there be someone from within who would overthrow him.

With the money possibly drying up (well no where near it was) someone is bound to be plotting something, the rich Russians have lost so much already around Europe and beyond that there has to be discussions on how to end it with saving face or overthrow him and be done with it

If there are any left.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths

[HiMucker]

IF, and that's an if, putin is making the balls of this war etc that the media would have you believe then you would wonder would there be someone from within who would overthrow him.

I would say in general the mean stream media are nearly a week behind events happening on the ground in Ukraine. They were a bit quicker on it with the events of the last week, but that's because twitter and telegram exploded with info. You can get a much better feel and understanding for what's happening there by following a few several twitter and telegram accounts, and I include pro Russian ones in that. There is bias in everything reported, generally the Ukrainians at official level play down a lot of their successes. There is tons of evidence that suggest that their casualty figures for the Russian army are at least 20% less than what they should be. I think  there is no ifs about it, you can say with 100% certainty that Putin has and is making a complete balls of it. Id say 5/1 of Putin being removed/killed, or a complete Russian army collapse by the end of the year or both, would be very generous odds.
As I said in an early post, I get why people switch off. But that is one of things I find fascinating about it. That you are watching history unfold, that the same people switched off now, will be glued to documentaries about in years to come.

[Milltown Row2]

IF, and that's an if, putin is making the balls of this war etc that the media would have you believe then you would wonder would there be someone from within who would overthrow him.

With the money possibly drying up (well no where near it was) someone is bound to be plotting something, the rich Russians have lost so much already around Europe and beyond that there has to be discussions on how to end it with saving face or overthrow him and be done with it

If there are any left.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths

That's why they are dead, possibly plotting

[johnnycool]

Energy expert on TV (Newsnight!!) thinks that most EU governments including Germany have put enough mitigations in place to not be relying on Russian gas this winter, his only caveat is that if it's a really cold winter then there might be problems.

Has Putin crashed one of Russians main cash cows or will China and the likes fill that void?

The Germans have built up decent stocks and the high prices mean that people will cut back their use a bit.
Putin can sell to China, although there may not be pipelines running that direction. But Russia may find the Chinese are not the ideal customer either, one big customer can put pressure on you.

Lets not forget about India either.

If the likes of China and India start buying gas from Russia for way less than it's trading on the international markets a lot of other countries will be tempted to get in on that action....

[imtommygunn]

That was predicted to happen a long time ago but hasn't for whatever reason. It wouldn't be good for "the west" I suspect if it did happen.