The Horse racing thread

[bcarrier]

With Overturn not going and Bahrain Storm for plate ( presuming he gets in) I make revised weights for hurdle ...

(4:50) 187F Guinness Galway H'dle H'cap (Grade A)
€156,600.00 ( 2m - 4yo+ )[MAX 20]
NHFrm

4-331 3 Captain Cee Bee(146) (EPHarty) - . ........ 11,10
1-370 4 Gimli's Rock(139) (MrsJHarrington) - . ...    11,03
1-402 5 Hidden Universe(137) (DKWeld) - . ....... . 11,01
-2292 6 Son Amix (FR)(137) (TCooper) - . ........... 11,01
-13-8 7 Dirar(136) (GElliott) - . ........................... 11,00
12-26 8 Oilily(136) (SByrne) - . ........................... 11,00
981f3 9 Fosters Cross(135) (TMullins) - . .    ......... 10,13
pf-40 10 Deutschland (USA)(134) (WPMullins) -  ... 10,12
04111 11 Redera(133) (AJMartin) - . .................... 10,11
111-9 12 Silverhand(133) (NMeade) - . ................. 10,11
346-1 13 Moon Dice(130) (PWFlynn) - TJDoyle ...... 10,08
-2137 14 Tawaagg (GB)(130) (WPMullins) - . ......... 10,08
-1401 15 Plan A(134) (GElliott) - . ...................... . 10,06
1-312 16 The Real Article(127) (EJO'Grady) - . ......  10,05
96201 17 Action Master (GB)(126) (DTHughes) ....  10,04
-0-87 18 Silk Hall (UAE)(125) (JJLambe) - . ...........  10,03
56113 19 Street Entertainer(131) (DPipe (in GB))....10,03
17-21 20 Gudnis Gracious Me(124) (JFO'Shea) -....... 10,02
64161 29 [1] Alderwood(116) (TMullins) - . ............. 10,02
0-31 21 [2] Sublime Talent(123) (DKWeld) - . ...........10,01

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
54347 22 [3] Total Excitement(123) (TCooper) - . .... 10,01
25-10 23 [4] False Economy(122) (MHourigan) - . ...... 10,00
02123 24 [6] Idarah (USA)(122) (PCashman) - . ........ 10,00
1-452 25 [5] Inspector Clouseau(122) (WPMullins)...... 10,00

The racecaller.com stats are :

The Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth day of the Galway Festival which kicks off on Monday 25th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive but it has been a good race for punters recently with 4 of the last 5 winners being very well backed.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-14

5yo: 3-8-49

6yo: 4-8-59

7yo: 1-9-46

8yo: 1-4-24

9yo: 1-0-8

10yo+: 0-0-8

Horses aged 5 or 6: 7-16-108

All other ages: 3-14-100



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 6-5-64

Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-25-144

Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 6 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing approximately 31% of the total runner. They have also accounted for 4 of the last 5 winners.

Top Weight: 030066P002 (0-2-10)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-4-9) have a decent record, gaining 1 win and 4 places from just 9 runners.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-3-31

Horses rated 120 to 130: 7-18-124

Horses rated 119 or less: 1-9-53

7 of 10 winners were rated between 120 and 130, though they represented almost 60% of the total runners, so that is hardly a strong trend.

In recent years it has swung towards higher rated runners, with 3 of the last 4 winners being officially rated 130 or higher.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts (exception was runner-up in previous year's Galway Hurdle on last hurdles start)

8 of 10 winners won or placed on their last hurdles start

10 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR on one of last two starts

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 times over hurdles

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners had no more than 2 handicap hurdles

8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers

9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 7 to 13K (but no higher)

10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days

5 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Overturn): PF02 (0-1-4)

Tree Care Hurdle winner (Oneeightofamile): 21 (1-1-2)

Three.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Johnny McGeeney): 71300 (1-1-5)

Wellingtonbridge Novice Hurdle winner (Redera): 1 (1-0-1)

Ladbrokes H'cap Hurdle winner (Princeton Plains): 0040304 (0-3-7)

Grimes Hurdle winner (Captain Cee Bee): 662 (0-1-3)

www.thetote.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Jack Cool): 40P0 (0-1-4)

London Southend Airport EBF Handicap winner (Silk Hall): 06 (0-0-2)

Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov Hurdle winner (Oilily): 00 (0-0-2)

HotelMeyrick Novice Hurdle winner (Force Of Habit): 07 (0-0-2)

Gerry Igoe Land Drainage H'cap Hurdle winner (Redera): 05F (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in Three.ie handicap hurdle, finishing 413

3 of 10 winners ran in the UAE Handicap at Curragh, finishing 436

2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ulster Derby, finishing 52

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 20

5 of 10 winners had run in a flat or NH race at previous Festival



Trainers

Pat Flynn (1-1-2) has saddled Bahrain Storm to finish 1st and 2nd in the past 2 years.

Dermot Weld (1-1-13) and Noel Meade (1-1-18) have also both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.

Donald McCain (1-0-1) and John Kiely (1-0-2) have both trained the winner once in past 3 years.

Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners in the past 10 years include Thomond O'Mara (0-2-3), Jessica Harrington (0-2-5), Dessie Hughes (0-2-5), Willie Mullins (0-2-5), Tony Martin (0-2-5) and Eddie O'Grady (0-2-6).

British based trainers (1-1-11) have gained 1 win and 1 place from their 11 runners.



Price

6 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) were priced 7/1 or shorter & came from the first 3 in the betting. However there have been some big upsets in this race too, with other 4 winners going off at 16/1, 14/1, 33/1 & 20/1.

Favourites (2-4-10) have won the race twice in the past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 or 6

·         Carrying 10-7+

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Horses officially rated 130 or higher have done well recently

·         Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

·         Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts

·         Won or placed on last hurdles start

·         Run in past 55 days

·         Had previous run on flat (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)

·         Previously run in no more than 15 hurdles (winning 2 to 4)

·         Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

·         Ran at last year's Galway Festival

[Armaghgael]

Fancy Redera in the hurdle

[Muzz]

WARCROWN @ Goodwood, tuesday 16:20

Been told to get my money on this horse.. was told about a horse 2 week ago ladys first trained by richard fahey. it won 1st time out at 11/2.

this horse warcrown is owned by the same owner and supposedly a much better horse.

Got this tip through...Dont shoot the messagener

[Armaghgael]

WARCROWN @ Goodwood, tuesday 16:20

Been told to get my money on this horse.. was told about a horse 2 week ago ladys first trained by richard fahey. it won 1st time out at 11/2.

this horse warcrown is owned by the same owner and supposedly a much better horse.

Got this tip through...Dont shoot the messagener

Bad odds might double it up with: Sun Tzu 8.40 perth

[Donnellys Hollow]

Cracking ride on Requinto over at Goodwood by Wayne Lordan. Most underrated jock in Ireland at the moment IMO. Coolmore should be offering him the no1 job.

[Armaghgael]

Cracking ride on Requinto over at Goodwood by Wayne Lordan. Most underrated jock in Ireland at the moment IMO. Coolmore should be offering him the no1 job.

Any fancys this evening DH?

[Muzz]

Warcrown still running...

[Armaghgael]

Warcrown still running...
[/quote

Seen that

[Donnellys Hollow]

Cracking ride on Requinto over at Goodwood by Wayne Lordan. Most underrated jock in Ireland at the moment IMO. Coolmore should be offering him the no1 job.

Any fancys this evening DH?

I avoid Galway like the plague and the whole Real Articlegate puts a seal on it.

I've changed my tune from a few weeks ago and fancy Frankel to beat Canford Cliffs tomorrow. I don't know why but the 3yo allowance looks massively generous and is possibly something that should be looked at again. Maybe Nathaniel winning the King George is clouding my judgement but Strong Suit winning hard held today boosts the classic form again.

Just reading that HRI are moving the Irish Derby back to a Saturday - that's probably the best decision that joke of an organisation have agreed to in years.

[Doogie Browser]

Cracking ride on Requinto over at Goodwood by Wayne Lordan. Most underrated jock in Ireland at the moment IMO. Coolmore should be offering him the no1 job.

A jockey I like to follow quite often, he has had a few marquee victories across the water this year.

[beer baron]

Galileos choice is down to run in the 1st at Galway tomorrow,doesn't look like he'll be much of a price though,i'll be doubling him up with Canford Cliffs,should i take 11/8 on Canford in the morning or leave it SP?I've a feeling Frankel could get a big gamble which would hopefully get CC out to 13/8 or so 

[Bud Wiser]

Roscommon, Kildare and Frankel looks the job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQajCQ1_BSA

[Hardy]

Wow! Another amazing performance by Frankel.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Queally got it spot on today. Would love to see him at Leopardstown. I think Juddmonte will be keen to try him over 10f.

[Donnellys Hollow]

They should give Ted his own talk show