The Horse racing thread

[tyrone girl]

Bet receipt number : O/20738152/0000179Selection Selection Details Result
1 Horse Racing
SOUTHWELL
16:00 HANDICAP (0-75) ( 6f
10th of Nov 2010 4:00 pm
Win or each way
1/5 places 1,2,3
Victorian Bounty @ 14/1 (GP) 

Win

Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at 10th of Nov 2010 4:00 pm Total Stake £20.00
Bet type Single (Each-Way) Tax@Tax free 0
Number of lines 2 Total stake due £20.00
Stake per line £10.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00
Channel Internet Total amount paid £20.00
Number of win lines 2   
Number of void lines 0 Returns £188.00

[illdecide]

Someone's got a problem...

[tyrone girl]

  R u referring to me?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Had a quick peep at tomorrow's card. Both feature contests look like two horse races to me but it's hard to recommend a bet without seeing the prices.

Tranquil Sea is 3 from 3 on his seasonal reappearances and he looks the class act in the field. I don't know how much to read into the going right-handed argument. He certainly jumped left when he made his chasing debut at Cork but I can't recall him doing it since. He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown going right-handed so I don't think it makes too much difference to him. He has a job on giving 6lbs to Let Yourself Go (who he is only rated 7lbs superior to on the book) tomorrow. He's a bit in and out (ran poorly on his reappearance at Limerick) but on a going day, he's very good - like when he chased home Captain Cee Bee at Punchestown last April. Scotsirish will need the run tomorrow and the rest of the field are on the downgrade.

The mares chase looks a good contest. I have it as a match between For Bill and Cruising Katie because Blazing Tempo will probably improve for the run and the rest don't look like they have the same scope. For Bill is a massive mare who won a string of good races in soft ground last year but she lacks the chasing experience of Cruising Katie and the latter has the benefit of a run when she ran a cracker behind Cornas at Limerick. If I got a guarantee that For Bill was match fit, I'd hammer her e/w but I'm leaning towards keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham at the weekend.

[sammymaguire]

Cheers DH excellent informative write up as usual

[vav]

Chris Timmons...

An appalling ride.. A 28 day ban following which he'll struggle to get any rides.. he deserves nothing better after that performance!

[Donnellys Hollow]

Chris Timmons...

An appalling ride.. A 28 day ban following which he'll struggle to get any rides.. he deserves nothing better after that performance!

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,405383,00.html

Does he mistake the winning post? Looks like he drops his hands at the 1/2f pole and then panics when he peaks behind him and sees the jock on the eventual winner still flailing away.

Massive c**k up if it's simply a case of easing up. He's another victim of the inherent flaw in the necessary evil that is the handicap system - win too far or too easily and your trainer/owner are not going to be best pleased. One things for sure, he won't do it again.

[vav]

Chris Timmons...

An appalling ride.. A 28 day ban following which he'll struggle to get any rides.. he deserves nothing better after that performance!

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,405383,00.html

Does he mistake the winning post? Looks like he drops his hands at the 1/2f pole and then panics when he peaks behind him and sees the jock on the eventual winner still flailing away.

The lads in the shop today were saying that he must have mistaken the winning post but if ya  watch the replay he looks over both shoulders, taking a long look over his left shoulder before easing up and then awhile after easing he takes another look over his right shoulder.. if he had've mistaken the half furlong mark for the winning post what was the need to look over his shoulder if the race was over  Very poor judgement call either way!

Massive c**k up if it's simply a case of easing up. He's another victim of the inherent flaw in the necessary evil that is the handicap system - win too far or too easily and your trainer/owner are not going to be best pleased. One things for sure, he won't do it again.

He'll have a tough job convincing a trainer to give him a ride after that.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Massive c**k up if it's simply a case of easing up. He's another victim of the inherent flaw in the necessary evil that is the handicap system - win too far or too easily and your trainer/owner are not going to be best pleased. One things for sure, he won't do it again.

He'll have a tough job convincing a trainer to give him a ride after that.

Can't say I'm too familiar with the lad but I'm sure he'll still pick up rides. He gave that horse a textbook ride up until the last 50 yards in fairness. He's made a big error but he's hardly the first jockey to do that and I've seen far worse this year alone - Twiston-Davies' young fella for instance had two c**k ups at Perth this summer, one for easing up and another for riding a finish a circuit early.

It just highlights the pitfalls of the handicap system again. If he'd have drove that horse out to the line and won 10L+ I'm sure the trainer/owner would have ate the head off him for ruining the horse's chance of winning another race again in the near future.

[bcarrier]

Here's what you do. Concentrate exclusively on the bonus races. Sure, you can deviate from them, but if you are putting in a horse because he is potentially a nice novice hurdler, or because you think that he might win a race at a big price, or because he might win the Totesport Trophy in February, then you are carrying a man from the start.

If you do have such a horse on your mind, back him in those races for sure, but don't succumb to the temptation to allow him use up an entry in your Ten To Follow list. He may well do all of the above, win a handicap hurdle at a big price and/or win the Totesport Trophy, but the percentage call is that he won't, and this competition is all about percentages. You get as many points for winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup as you do for winning the Totesport Trophy, and how much easier is it to predict the winner of the Paddy Power at this juncture?

There are 15 bonus races, and they have to be the targets. As well as the Totesport Trophy, I would also leave out the Racing Post Trophy and the Grand National. They are just too difficult to predict at this stage, so far out. That leaves 12 races. The Ryanair is also difficult (not that the others aren't, but it is difficult to know the make-up of the Ryanair at this stage), and the chances are that most of your Ryanair possibles are also either Champion Chase or Gold Cup possibles, so you can legitimately scratch that.

That's 11 races. But it's a Ten To Follow? Lump the Irish Champion Hurdle in with the Champion Hurdle, the main contenders for one are also high on the pecking order for the other, and, hey presto, that's 10 categories, 10 horses.

Here are my 10:

Paddy Power Gold Cup: Catch Me (from a shortlist that was made up of Long Run, Great Endeavour, Mad Max and the aforementioned Catch Me, no rocket science there then)

Hennessy: Weird Al (in the hope that Kauto Star doesn't run and he isn't miles out of the handicap)

King George: Kauto Star (Sizing Europe and Long Run were options, but Kauto is still the percentage call, again, as long as he doesn't run in the Hennessy)

Irish Hennessy: Cooldine (in the hope that he can put last season behind him)

Arkle: Loosen My Load (from a shortlist that was made up of him and Celestial Halo)

Champion Hurdle/Irish Champion Hurdle: Solwhit (he will run plenty, he will probably be favourite for the Irish Champion Hurdle, he had a setback before Cheltenham last year, so he is probably better than he was able to show there, and Hurricane Fly is just too risky)

Champion Chase: Big Zeb (the most solid option by some way)

RSA Chase: Wayward Prince (huge potential as a staying novice chaser in a really exciting division)

World Hurdle: Big Buck's (difficult to leave him out, although Zaynar was tempting)

Gold Cup: Sizing Europe (a bit of a flyer, but I am well against the top three in the market, Sizing is an Arkle winner and has a big chance of staying the trip on last Saturday's evidence)

[bcarrier]

Working with Donns rules my shortlist pending decs for week end is

Paddy Power Gold Cup: Long Run ( potentially covers KG later ) or Mad Max ( potentially covers Ryanair later)
Hennessy: Pandaroma ( covers Irish Hennessy ) or  Burton Port ( both  10st) and might pick up a few conditions races ..Gold Cup long shots
King George: I think Kauto might be vulnerable. You need something from leftfield in the list so might try something like Nacarat ( will probably turn up at racing post trophy later ) or Riverside Theatre ( another Kempton lover)
Irish Hennessy: Joncol ( should pick up other points ) or  something like What a friend ( ditto) 
Arkle:  Avrika but injury worry?
Champion Hurdle/Irish Champion Hurdle: Solwhit seems solid choice . I noticed hurdlers can score well so will probably have Binocular in my list as well for Fighting Fifth/ Christmas Hurdle points.
Champion Chase:  ? Big Zeb will only have one run before transfer window so might transfer in in January  ...in meantime Masterminded could get points on Sunday and at Tingle Creek
RSA Chase: Too hard to pick – think I will replace with Novice hurdler – Cue Card looks the obvious one
World Hurdle: Big Bucks without Ruby ? Might wait for transfer window ...in meantime Zaynar or Peddlers Cross might pick up a few points
Gold Cup: ? An open year   ...might stick in What a Friend or Punchestowns  after transfer window

[Donnellys Hollow]

Limerick rained off. Hopefully Staying Article will take his chance at Naas on Wednesday instead.

Anyone else doing the Ten To Follow? Been mulling over mine all weekend. Eventually settled on:

List 1:
1036 Big Bucks
1039 Binocular
1052 Captain Cee Bee
1080 Cue Card
1117 Finians Rainbow
1180 Kauto Star
1199 Mad Max
1222 Mikael D'Haguenet
1264 Pandorama
1332 Solwhit

List 2:
1036 Big Bucks
1038 Big Zeb
1039 Binocular
1080 Cue Card
1161 Imperial Commander
1264 Pandorama
1290 Quel Esprit
1301 Reve De Sivola
1321 Shinrock Paddy
1332 Solwhit

I don't think you have to win the Paddy Power to be in with a shout of the TTF. For me, your Hennessy horse (Pandorama in my case) is more important because there's more chance that the Hennessy winner will go on to win points later in the season. Apart from Imperial Commander, most recent Paddy Power winners have achieved very little afterwards because they've been hammered by the handicapper. At least there's a chance your Hennessy horse could develop into a Gold Cup horse and in Pandorama's case, a Lexus and Irish Hennessy horse too. I've only one Paddy Power horse in my lists and that's Mad Max who could well be a King George/Ryanair horse down the line.

There are a few bankers for me - Big Bucks, Binocular, Cue Card and Solwhit. He'll probably only run four times but there's very little out there to challenge Big Bucks. Binocular appeared at Cheltenham to be over whatever was ailing him early last season so he'll take all the beating in the English hurdle races. Picking a novice hurdler can be dodgy enough but Tizzard has said he'll run Cue Card every 3-4 weeks so he should be a good points earner. Hurricane Fly is too fragile so Solwhit is a must from the Irish hurdlers - he'll win on Sunday and will be very hard to beat in both the Grade 1s at Leopardstown even if a fit Hurricane Fly turns up.

I've a 2 miler (Big Zeb/Captain Cee Bee), a 3 miler (Kauto Star/Imperial Commander), an English novice chaser (Finians Rainbow/Reve De Sivola) and an Irish novice chaser (Mikael D'Haguenet/Quel Esprit) in either list. I've put Shinrock Paddy into the second list instead of a Paddy Power horse. I think he'll clean up the soft staying events like Solerina and Limestone Lad used to do and rack up the points. I'm normally out of the running by Cheltenham in this thing though!

Plenty of money around for For Bill this morning. Looks like she's fit to do herself justice.

[Lecale2]

Another winner today DH. I'll be following you closely at Cheltenham this weekend.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Cheers Lecale. Two races interest me tomorrow - the novice hurdle and the novice chase.

Cue Card is one of those horses I'll keep backing until he loses. He jumped very well at Aintree and the drop back in trip shouldn't be too much of a problem. Dunraven Storm is a good horse and he should ensure that Cue Card isn't ridiculously short but he was miles behind him in the bumper in March.

The novice chase looks very informative. The market should tell a lot with most of these making their seasonal reappearances. Time For Rupert will be popular after chasing home Big Bucks at the festival but Reve De Sivola is a horse I think is destined for a good season. He split Peddlers Cross and Rite Of Passage in March and he went on to win well at Punchestown. I'll be backing him e/w if there's any 3/1+ available.

Garde Champetre had a nice prep over hurdles a few weeks back and as usual will take all the beating in the X-Country. Not a race for a big bet but he's usually a puntable price.

[armagho9]

did a 50pew lucky 15 today

Baileys Ruffet 2.50 Newcastle @14-1
Aviso 3.15 Lingfield @5-1
Eyre Square 3.25 Newcastle @13-2
Harris Hawk 3.55 Newcastle @ 9-1

In a seperate bet i did Traffic Article 3.35 Cheltenham @16-1.  Elliot and OConnells only horse and ride today.  Also Toals are paying first 5 in that race