The Horse racing thread

[bcarrier]

Your initial instincts were spot on DH.

Couldnt believe the drift on VLV....she seemed to settle better today with the earplugs.

[sammymaguire]

Brilliant stuff DH bang on the money today well done

[Donnellys Hollow]

Cheers lad but it hardly took a formbook expert to work them ones out.

I'll be playing up on Loosen My Load tomorrow if the price is right. His round of jumping at Listowel was as good as I've seen from a novice in a long time. He made useful handicappers like Schelm and Emmpat look ordinary. I'd be delighted if someone was laying around the 4/7 mark tomorrow.

I'm happy to keep my powder dry with Luska Lad and Sizing Europe. Luska Lad will be very skinny. I fully expect him to win but he's supposed to be going chasing (can't see him being too tuned up for a spin over hurdles) and he was pulled out of the Galway Hurdle because of the quick ground (going today was fairly lively). I think Sizing Europe will stay three miles but I'll take a watching brief on his first attempt. I've always thought a lot of China Rock and he has the benefit of a run and he'll like the quick ground. Sizing Europe to win but it would be no surprise to me if Ruby and China Rock turns him over.

Noel Meade's in the bumper is worth a look in the market. Must be the first horse the Giggy House Stud has in training with him.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Happy enough with First Lieutenant. He's still a bit babyish and that ground was probably lively enough for him. I think he'll be a horse for something like the Barry and Sandra Kelly race at Navan where he could meet The Real Article. First Lieutenant is going to make a hell of a chaser next year.

Voler La Vedette did it nicely. I still can't see her beating Quevega though so it wouldn't surprise me if she was tried in one of the 2 mile Grade 1s given that it's likely to be her last year in training.

Muirhead was Muirhead - a typical Meade rogue. I don't think he was ever really in danger of getting beaten and he'll run better in a better race when they go a proper pace. I'd send him to England for his next few runs where he's likely to get a truer run race.

Some very interesting stats from Hugh Taylor on ATR re odds-on favs in beginners' chases this morning.

Is Quevega not likely to be pointed at the World Hurdle DH?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Happy enough with First Lieutenant. He's still a bit babyish and that ground was probably lively enough for him. I think he'll be a horse for something like the Barry and Sandra Kelly race at Navan where he could meet The Real Article. First Lieutenant is going to make a hell of a chaser next year.

Voler La Vedette did it nicely. I still can't see her beating Quevega though so it wouldn't surprise me if she was tried in one of the 2 mile Grade 1s given that it's likely to be her last year in training.

Muirhead was Muirhead - a typical Meade rogue. I don't think he was ever really in danger of getting beaten and he'll run better in a better race when they go a proper pace. I'd send him to England for his next few runs where he's likely to get a truer run race.

Some very interesting stats from Hugh Taylor on ATR re odds-on favs in beginners' chases this morning.

Is Quevega not likely to be pointed at the World Hurdle DH?

Hard to know TAM. I'd say Willie would be leaning towards going for the hat-trick and Ruby will no doubt be pushing him that way. If Kauto Star and Denman regress though, and Big Bucks goes chasing, all bets are off. I've a feeling Punchestowns will go back hurdling as Henderson has Mad Max, Long Run and Burton Port for the staying chases.

She'll probably go straight to Cheltenham again without a run. I'd love to see her run in both races! It has been done in the past but it's something that's very rarely attempted these days.

[Donnellys Hollow]

I thought Luska Lad would go off around 1/6 today and not 4/6! I thought Aertel had got the SP wrong when I looked at it first but I've just seen the replay on ATR. He's a likeable horse but he'll be hard to place this season - has to go right-handed.

Only managed to get 4/9 about Loosen My Load in the morning when Brady's horse was pulled out. He jumped superbly again but he didn't win with the authority I'd expected him to. We'll learn a lot more about him when he runs in a proper contest at Cheltenham in November.

Had a feeling China Rock would beat Sizing Europe and the betting told the story. Ruby rode gave China Rock a great tactical ride. Hard to know what to make of Sizing Europe. He probably needed the run so you can't just dismiss him as a non-stayer. I'm not sure he'll amount to anything this year though. I can't see him winning a King George or a Gold Cup and I don't think he's good enough for the likes of Big Zeb over 2 miles (a poor Arkle fell into his lap when Captain Cee Bee bled). If connections are realistic, he'll probably end up in the Ryanair or the Melling Chase.

Meade's and Murphy's were very well backed in the bumper which makes the performance of O'Grady's horse all the more impressive. He looked a very exciting animal and is one for the notebook for sure.

[Mickey Linden]

Quality info as usual DH. Have been spot on this week. Had a nice touch myself today with a trixie on Inspector Closeau, Kayannas back and China Rock.

Have u had a look at the Cheltenham cards for tomorrow on Saturday? Any fancies?

[Donnellys Hollow]

Quality info as usual DH. Have been spot on this week. Had a nice touch myself today with a trixie on Inspector Closeau, Kayannas back and China Rock.

Have u had a look at the Cheltenham cards for tomorrow on Saturday? Any fancies?

Nice trixie. Think you owe Ruby a pint!

I've had a look at the Cheltenham cards but there's nothing really that catches the eye. Stick with Hobbs and Twiston-Davies and you should do alright. They usually do well at this meeting.

Newmarket on Saturday looks the place to be - shame they're messing around with it and moving the whole show to Ascot next year. Vision D'Etat at 4/1 quarter the odds e/w looks like a cracking bet. Patkai hasn't run since the Ascot Gold Cup last year but on form he's a penalty kick in the Jockey Club Cup. Market will tell a lot. The Dewhurst is potentially the best 2yo race for a long time. I backed Dream Ahead last time out and he won the Middle Park very impressively but the hype about Frankel puts me off backing him again. I was going to back the Godolphin horse e/w thinking there'd be a good turnout but only the six were declared this morning. I'll wait for Casamento next Saturday at Doncaster instead.

[bridge fan]

Storms Over around 10/1 worth a couple off quid e/w 9-10 wolverhampton

[the greatest jockey]

barizan nap tomoro at cheltenham, supercede, billie magern and passato might all go close

[Donnellys Hollow]

Vision D'Etat blew his chance on the way to post. Thought he did very well to go so close. Got the e/w money back at 4/1 so broke even.

I thought the Dewhurst was a bit of a let down with neither Dream Ahead or the Godolphin horse running their race. Frankel does look exceptionally good but 5/4 for the Guineas is too short. I'd be very encouraged if I was Mick Halford, Jessie Harrington or Kevin Prendergast. Glor Na Mara was only beaten 5 lengths there and he's be a good bit behind the likes of Casamento, Pathfork and Dunboyne Express.

Patkai a NR in the last.

When did they move the second last fence on the old course at Cheltenham? That was one of the best fences in jump racing. Some sight to see them free wheeling down the hill in an Arkle or a Champion Chase and trying to wing that difficult fence.

[bcarrier]

I think Friday was the first racing day with the new 2nd last at cheltenham. A few of NTD's schooled over it ...

http://blogs.bettor.com/Cheltenham-move-off-fence-for-safety-reasons-a33916

It will still claim its share of fallers ...it did strike me with the old fence that most of the fallers were the ones jumping it tight to the rail where the downhill seems a bit steeper. Lots of brought downs in there too.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Yesterday was the first racing day with the new 2nd last at cheltenham. A few of NTD's schooled over it ...

http://blogs.bettor.com/Cheltenham-move-off-fence-for-safety-reasons-a33916

It will still claim its share of fallers ...it did strike me with the old fence that most of the fallers were the ones jumping it tight to the rail where the downhill seems a bit steeper. Lots of brought downs in there too.

Safety reasons? It's jump racing ffs. You don't see them moving Beecher's Brook or increasing the distance between the Railway Fences at Sandown.

Trixie/Patent for Cork today:

2.55 Takeyourcapoff - Drops in class after finishing a fourth in a Grade 3 novice last time out.
4.30 Mr Cracker - Very impressive chasing debut last Sunday. Should follow up if he reproduces that round of jumping.
5.35 Fire Belt - Easily the weakest bumper he'll have contested. A good second to a very promising horse of JP's (Ballyburke) last February.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Two no shows so far - ground must be very quick 

[Donnellys Hollow]

5.35 Fire Belt - Easily the weakest bumper he'll have contested. A good second to a very promising horse of JP's (Ballyburke) last February.

Roger Quinlan what were ya at?