The Horse racing thread

[Mac hinery]

Nice one Hardy

[pintsofguinness]

I wanted the winner!

[Mac hinery]

I wanted the winner!

Dont push it

[Louth Exile]

I wanted the winner!

We all know what you want!! A winner carrying 11-5 throws the stats followers out, however as already stated that is some going picking three of the first five

[haranguerer]

Backed the five each way, paid on three, 50% return, thank you Hardy.

[illdecide]

11/10 about Peddlers Cross tomorrow is way too big. I thought he'd be a 1/2 shot at best so I'm having a wedge on that to kick off tomorrow. I don't think he had that hard a race at Cheltenham and the rest of this field are modest.

The Maghull looks a very poor renewal. Osana is a bit of a rogue and French Opera and Tataniano are both priced purely on the yards they're in. Going to have a small e/w on Archie Boy at 20/1. Ran very well in several novice chases on quick ground last summer and was put away all winter for this meeting. Had a nice prep over hurdles at Naas last month to leave him spot on and he might just sneak a place.

The Aintree Hurdle looks a tough race to call on paper and I've a feeling it could be a tactical messy affair. Not sure if either Ruby or Barry will want to make their own running so it's a no bet race for me.

National (get the blindfold and darts out) - Arbor Supreme @ 16s and Maljimar @ 40s.

Took you're advise and put £50 on it then had another few winners as well as the footie up, so had a good day

[maddog]

I see Nina has a few mounts at Sedgefield today for Ferdy the Crook.

[Hardy]

Well, the weight statistic was blown to pieces for the second year running on Saturday, with the first two carrying 11-5 and 11-6 respectively and a full stone more than the bottom weight, after the first four last year also carried more than 11 stone. It's also interesting to note that 50% of the finishers carried 11 stone or more.

So the weight stat has to be reviewed. Certainly the good going on Saturday made it easier for the 11 stone-plus brigade. But there seems to be a developing trend. In the fourteen races from 1993-2007, twelve horses made the frame (first five) carrying 11-0 or more, with only one winning it – Hedgehunter, a horse placed in a Gold Cup. In the last three years, another nine have done it, two of them winning, neither an obvious star. So it seems you'd be restricting your possibilities unacceptably from now on by eliminating horses over 11 stone or carrying more than 11 lbs above the bottom weight.

It's hard enough to see why horses should suddenly find it much easier to hump heavy weights around Aintree. It'll make for some interesting studying anyway and it'll be fun trying to find the angle on it.

Anyway, I was happy to get three places on Saturday. Any day you make a profit on the English National is a good day. If it hadn't been for the first two screwing up the weight stat, we'd have had the 1-2-3. 

[Donnellys Hollow]

I'm beginning to think the way they've handicapped the National in recent years has made sh1te of the stats. Phil Smith has said that he doesn't frame the weights like a conventional handicap anymore. He drops some of the higher rated horses in order to tempt connections of some of the better quality horses into running. The handicap is much more compressed nowadays and there's far more horses actually carrying over 11st.

Smith also adjusts a horses chase rating judged on hurdles form (War Of Attrition went up for his hurdles wins this year). He must have been pissed off with horses like Numbersixvalverde being campaigned all year over hurdles in order to protect their chase mark.

As Michael O'Leary said at the weights announcement this year though: "it's supposed to be the John Smith's Grand National, not the Phil Smith's Grand National"

[gerrykeegan]

Cork punter scoops a €116,000 four-timer

Monday, April 12, 2010



A CORK punter landed a spectacular €116,000 coup by backing the winners of four consecutive races, including the Grand National, at Aintree on Saturday.



The Paddy Power shop customer successfully predicted the outcome of the final four races in a €3 Lucky 15 bet. The winning selections were From Dawn to Dusk (12-1), Grand National winner Don't Push It (10-1), Dee Ee Williams (11-1) and Megastar (9-1).

Paddy Power said: "This has got to be the jammiest man in Ireland. Getting the winner of the National is commendable but throwing in another three races for good measure . . . now that's just showing off!"





Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/sport/racing/cork-punter-scoops-a-euro116000-four-timer-116968.html#ixzz0ky5uDEa5

[Hardy]

I'm beginning to think the way they've handicapped the National in recent years has made sh1te of the stats. Phil Smith has said that he doesn't frame the weights like a conventional handicap anymore. He drops some of the higher rated horses in order to tempt connections of some of the better quality horses into running. The handicap is much more compressed nowadays and there's far more horses actually carrying over 11st.

Smith also adjusts a horses chase rating judged on hurdles form (War Of Attrition went up for his hurdles wins this year). He must have been pissed off with horses like Numbersixvalverde being campaigned all year over hurdles in order to protect their chase mark.

As Michael O'Leary said at the weights announcement this year though: "it's supposed to be the John Smith's Grand National, not the Phil Smith's Grand National"

That could be the key to it OK. It's amazing that he gets away with making up his own rules for one race, especially with regard to taking hurdling form into account, since it's not done for other handicaps. But effectively he can do what he likes because there aren't really any rules anyway and no effective overview of the handicapper's work.

[beer baron]

Kangaroo court worth a small bet at cheltenham today in good field

[new devil]

Lads have a tip coming for the 4.40 at gowran park....looking at the racecard now could nearly tell which horse it is with one going from 16's into 7-1..but the guy won't know the name of it until 30mins before the race..p.s hes never been wrong before 

[randomtask]

Lads have a tip coming for the 4.40 at gowran park....looking at the racecard now could nearly tell which horse it is with one going from 16's into 7-1..but the guy won't know the name of it until 30mins before the race..p.s hes never been wrong before 

well? any word?

[new devil]

Bar the rest 7-1...good luck