The Horse racing thread

[Donnellys Hollow]

11/10 about Peddlers Cross tomorrow is way too big. I thought he'd be a 1/2 shot at best so I'm having a wedge on that to kick off tomorrow. I don't think he had that hard a race at Cheltenham and the rest of this field are modest.

The Maghull looks a very poor renewal. Osana is a bit of a rogue and French Opera and Tataniano are both priced purely on the yards they're in. Going to have a small e/w on Archie Boy at 20/1. Ran very well in several novice chases on quick ground last summer and was put away all winter for this meeting. Had a nice prep over hurdles at Naas last month to leave him spot on and he might just sneak a place.

The Aintree Hurdle looks a tough race to call on paper and I've a feeling it could be a tactical messy affair. Not sure if either Ruby or Barry will want to make their own running so it's a no bet race for me.

National (get the blindfold and darts out) - Arbor Supreme @ 16s and Maljimar @ 40s.

[gerry]

Top tip for The Grand National.
Creosote 7/1 - good over fences.

[maddog]

My Will - opened fav last year finished 3rd and is 40/1 this year
Comply or Die - proven track performer - hopefully run into a place again
Flintoff - another slogger

all ew bets for me

i like the look of wogan in the race before

[Louth Exile]

He's in to evens now, considering folowing DH and putting a bit of a lump on Peddlers Cross!
In the hurdle I would tend to go for Celestial Halo, but probably won't have a bet.

Hoping Dessie has a much better day today, backed both of them e/w in the big one. I know the weight is against them, but some much else in their favour worth an e/w punt.

BTW, VC Bet have been my bookie of choice for the last few months for a number of reasons, free bet on all fallers etc. (excellent, served me very well at Cheltenham and always nice to know that if your horse comes down at beechers at least you can use your stake for another punt) Enhanced places. Unlikley PP or Boyles they still offer excellent odds on top of this and have gtd prices. For anyone opening an account I don't think you can look past them!

[sammymaguire]

VCBet - you are right but those attractive offers helped me lose a fortune with them a few years ago 

[Homer]

1.45 Peddlers Cross
2.15 Tataniano
2.50 Zaynar
3.45 No bet
4.10 See GN thread
5.00 Magnum Force

[Donnellys Hollow]

Get up the yard baby!

[Homer]

Pissed it. Very classy horse.

Champion or World Hurdle next year Or novice chasing?

[Donnellys Hollow]

I'd send him the Kicking King/War Of Attrition route  of the Arkle followed by the Gold Cup. Looks scopey enough to jump a fence. He won a point at Liscarroll in March last year.

[Candyman]

Get up the yard baby!

Any more fancies DH, and NOT in the national... 

[Donnellys Hollow]

Get up the yard baby!

Any more fancies DH, and NOT in the national... 

The Maghull looks a very poor renewal. Osana is a bit of a rogue and French Opera and Tataniano are both priced purely on the yards they're in. Going to have a small e/w on Archie Boy at 20/1. Ran very well in several novice chases on quick ground last summer and was put away all winter for this meeting. Had a nice prep over hurdles at Naas last month to leave him spot on and he might just sneak a place.

Sneaked the place but two feckin NRs. EDIT: Irish-Racing.com only had 7 runners in their result but I've checked again an 10 ran. Happy days!

Been having a look through Peddlers Cross' pedigree. He's by Oscar and there are plenty of his progeny that have got three miles (Refinement, Oscar Dan Dan, Offshore Account, Black Jack Kethum). His dam Patscilla was only an ordinary race mare but she is from the immediate family of an Australian Group 1 winner and a 1000 Guineas third. Every chance he'd stay three miles but there's plenty of speed in his genes as well.

[Candyman]

Such a touch Zaynar got in the last???

[Louth Exile]

I have to say cheers DH, I followed you on Peddlers - Nice return at 5/4. Due to having to come into work for an house because of some elses f**k I missed the start of the hurdle so no bet on Celestial.

More important than any of it, I hope to god Rubys alright, the screens up for a long time. He's not going to ride Big Fella anyway. Big shame, but the name of the game is jumping!

[pintsofguinness]

Thanks Maddog. I thought that would sort the whole thing out, but it doesn't include some of the stats. It did sort out the main categories, though – very useful.

As bcarrier mentioned above, these statistics are now so well known that the main qualifiers may well be over-bet. Also, last year blew a hole in a couple of the major stats:
- weight under 11st. (though bcarrier pointed out last year that that statistic should probably be modified to specify a margin of no more than 11 lb over the bottom weight on the day. In any case, this year, 11st covers that)
- horses previously unplaced in the National don't come back and win it.

However, the purpose of statistics is to indicate trends and probabilities and one event doesn't invalidate the overall stats.

So to look at the stats. Applying the criteria about age and weight immediately reduces the field to 15 qualifiers:
- Big Fella Thanks
- Snowy Morning
- The Package
- Character Building
- Arbor Supreme
- Cant Buy Time
- State Of Play
- Irish Raptor
- Hello Bud
- Erics Charm
- Ballyfitz
- Ollie Magern
- Abbeybraney
- Ellerslie George
- Mr Pointment

Applying further selection criteria about experience, performance in Class 1 races, previous National form, performance in big fields, etc. reduces the field (unusually) to only four horses that tick every box - Can't Buy Time, State Of Play, Hello Bud and Ellerslie George.

Of the other 11, three fall out only on having finished unplaced previously in the race. If you want to ignore that statistic (I wouldn't based on one event), that brings Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks and Mr Pointment into the frame. I would make a case for Big Fella Thanks on the basis that State Of Play gets in having been fourth last year and BFT was only 4 lengths behind him in sixth, so it seems harsh to exclude him and there's only a 2 lb turnaround in weight difference this time. I'm adding him to the other four giving a short list of
- Big Fella Thanks 10/1
- Can't Buy Time  25/1
- State Of Play  20/1
- Hello Bud  40/1
- Ellerslie George  100/1

I'm using my usual scattergun approach and backing all five e.w.. Ellerslie George doesn't seem to have a realistic chance, despite the stats and two 100/1 winners in a row would be unprecedented, but he does qualify on the stats, so I'd kick myself down to the river if he made the frame and I wasn't on.

I also have a standing ante-post place only bet on Comply Or Die on the basis I don't think he can win, but he has every chance of a place based on proven form in this race and carrying a pound less than last year's runner-up performance.

After last year's performance of the stats selections, you may feel inclined to treat this as a list of horses not to back. Either way, good luck.

What happened Hardy??

[Homer]

3 places from five picks ain't bad.

Super stuff Hardy