The Horse racing thread

[Lecale2]

That boy tipped a right few at Cheltenham.

[ludermor]

Lets see if this one will be as good as the last time, from the same fella.
Wheresmeneckstra in the 6.30 in wolverhampton.

Edit Just got it at 22/1 in VC but down as low as 14/1 on PP

Well i dont know where that came from , it started and 33/1 and i dont know if it finished.

[boojangles]

Cheers Mac Hinery. It sure is hard to beat Hugh Taylor,16-1 today I seen. I just don't follow him enough.Watch him for the AW,it seems to be his forte.

[Lecale2]

Bad one alright. I backed it at 14/1.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Very unlikely to get any action tomorrow at Ascot due to the forecast big freeze overnight in England.

He might have hit the bar a few times at Newbury yesterday but I'd stay loyal to Henderson with Belvano (8/11 currently) and Daves Dream (11/8 currently) in the unlikely event that racing goes ahead.

[Clown]

Ascot off

any fancies at uttoxeter, downpatrick or the 2 all weather meetings today?

[rossie mad]

Any fancies for the weekend lads?

Ive had a shocker the last two weeks.
Think im down roughly 350 euro.need a big one this weekend.

Changed my mind twice last week with kyber kim and calgary bay and both won at 12/1.
I felt like vomiting in the bookies when kyber kim won.Went with henderson but that horse should win its next race.

Missed tyrana the other night and backed that donkey last night.

Any help appreciated lads?

[rossie mad]

The duck is broken. Praise the lord.

just had 5 e/w on romney marsh there in uttoxeter.

Im back in the game.

[cookstownblue]

harps counsel 2.45 d/patrick, dont go mad

[Hardy]

Anyone getting involved in the Ante post market for Cheltenham lads? Hows it looking for yous?
I have done a few which Im happy enough with so far.
Supreme Novices - Have been backing Dunguib every month at prices ranging from 5/2 to 7/4
Champion Hurdle - Huricane Fly @11/2
Ballymore - Quel Esprit @ 16s (think this is a cracking horse but not sure if it will go this route now tho)
Arkle - Sports Line @ 33s
Triumph - Alavian @ 12s

Hopefully I will have a few bets running for me come the festival.

Based on a short set of winner stats for the last ten years, my each way ante-post value selection for the Gold Cup is Alberta's Run. There are a few euros available at 75 on Betfair, a few more at 70 for the win; the place is 10.

He's the only horse that ticks all the boxes in the (short) stats list. Of course nobody would be foolish enough to suggest he's a better horse than Kauto Star or Denman or write off the big two because they don't meet some of the profile characteristics of previous winners, but Alberta's Run represents value at the price, at least for the place in my opinion, based on the record.

The stats:
- Course form: 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 chase at previous year's festival (all of the last 10 winners).
- Course form: 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 race at the festival at any stage (9 of the last 10 winners – exception was Kauto Star, which fell as Arkle favourite).
- Age: Aged 7 to 9 (all of the last 10 winners).
- Season form: A graded stakes win before December (7 of the last 8 – exception was Best Mate, but he had won 2 Gold Cups by then).


For the Champion Hurdle, the stats are against the top four in the market. The next three meet all the criteria – Go Native (12 Betfair), Celestial Halo (12) and Punjabi (13.5).

The stats:
- Course form: Won at the previous festival, or placed in the previous Champion Hurdle (7 of the last 8 )
- Age: 6 or older (only one five-year-old has won it since 1984 – bad stat for market leader Zaynar)
- Season form: At least one win or 2nd place before December (all of the last 9 winners).

[Donnellys Hollow]

I've heard from a fairly reliable source that Albertas Run will be aimed at the Ryanair this season Hardy. I've always stuck with second season chasers in the Gold Cup and it has served me well in recent years with Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Denman winning in the first year out of novice company. Cooldine would look the most likely candidate this year with Joncol likely to stay at home due to the ground.

Is that Champion Hurdle stat not about 5yos rather than 4yos? Zaynar will become a 5yo on New Years Day and Katchit is the only 5yo to win the race (very poor renewal) since See You Then in 1985. I don't think 4yos are even eligible for the race anymore. Conventional novices are (Alderbrook) but I don't think juvenilles are.

[Hardy]

I've heard from a fairly reliable source that Albertas Run will be aimed at the Ryanair this season Hardy.

That makes sense - I've checked and the 75 price represents a jump from 40 earlier - word must be out. That's the trouble with Ante-post

Is that Champion Hurdle stat not about 5yos rather than 4yos? Zaynar will become a 5yo on New Years Day and Katchit is the only 5yo to win the race (very poor renewal) since See You Then in 1985. I don't think 4yos are even eligible for the race anymore. Conventional novices are (Alderbrook) but I don't think juvenilles are.

You're right - five-year-olds it should be. Thought it was strange for a 4-y-o to be entered, but I read Zaynar's profile - foaled Feb 2005 - and somehow that made him a four year old next March in my addled head. So then I go and look at the outcome for 4-year-olds. I've changed it.

[Donnellys Hollow]

The Gold Cup stats make for interesting reading. The 10yo stat in particular should be kept in mind. Cool Dawn was the last one to defy it I think in '98.

I've never really been a huge Kauto Star fan and I'll definitely be against him this year. He is a bit of a freak but I just can't have a 10yo French bred who has gone to the well so often as a short price favourite. Denman, although the same age, is a slightly different story. Being an Irish bred, he will have matured later in life and he has a lot less miles on the clock due to his training problems.

I'd be with Denman in a match bet against Kauto Star over 3m2 at Cheltenham but a lot will depend on who'll ride him. Presumably Ruby will ride Kauto Star. I've heard McCoy mentioned for Denman but I can't see that happening given the history between himself and Paul Barber. Geraghty is a possible with Barbers Shop looking well exposed. I wouldn't want either Christian Williams or Sam Thomas on him.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Nicholls horses were both turned over in the Gold Cup. They're both exceptional horses but there are enough question marks over both of them for me to look elsewhere at this stage. At the moment Cooldine (regardless of what happens in the Lexus because he'll need the run) and Imperial Commander (regardless of what happens in the King George because of his poor record right-handed) would be my two against the field at the moment.

[boojangles]

The Gold Cup stats make for interesting reading. The 10yo stat in particular should be kept in mind. Cool Dawn was the last one to defy it I think in '98.

I've never really been a huge Kauto Star fan and I'll definitely be against him this year. He is a bit of a freak but I just can't have a 10yo French bred who has gone to the well so often as a short price favourite. Denman, although the same age, is a slightly different story. Being an Irish bred, he will have matured later in life and he has a lot less miles on the clock due to his training problems.

I'd be with Denman in a match bet against Kauto Star over 3m2 at Cheltenham but a lot will depend on who'll ride him. Presumably Ruby will ride Kauto Star. I've heard McCoy mentioned for Denman but I can't see that happening given the history between himself and Paul Barber. Geraghty is a possible with Barbers Shop looking well exposed. I wouldn't want either Christian Williams or Sam Thomas on him.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Nicholls horses were both turned over in the Gold Cup. They're both exceptional horses but there are enough question marks over both of them for me to look elsewhere at this stage. At the moment Cooldine (regardless of what happens in the Lexus because he'll need the run) and Imperial Commander (regardless of what happens in the King George because of his poor record right-handed) would be my two against the field at the moment.

Care to enlighten me DH.What happened there?
Realy looking forward to seeing Cooldine.
Also whats the story with Mikael D'Augenet or have I missed something??

[Donnellys Hollow]

The Gold Cup stats make for interesting reading. The 10yo stat in particular should be kept in mind. Cool Dawn was the last one to defy it I think in '98.

I've never really been a huge Kauto Star fan and I'll definitely be against him this year. He is a bit of a freak but I just can't have a 10yo French bred who has gone to the well so often as a short price favourite. Denman, although the same age, is a slightly different story. Being an Irish bred, he will have matured later in life and he has a lot less miles on the clock due to his training problems.

I'd be with Denman in a match bet against Kauto Star over 3m2 at Cheltenham but a lot will depend on who'll ride him. Presumably Ruby will ride Kauto Star. I've heard McCoy mentioned for Denman but I can't see that happening given the history between himself and Paul Barber. Geraghty is a possible with Barbers Shop looking well exposed. I wouldn't want either Christian Williams or Sam Thomas on him.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Nicholls horses were both turned over in the Gold Cup. They're both exceptional horses but there are enough question marks over both of them for me to look elsewhere at this stage. At the moment Cooldine (regardless of what happens in the Lexus because he'll need the run) and Imperial Commander (regardless of what happens in the King George because of his poor record right-handed) would be my two against the field at the moment.

Care to enlighten me DH.What happened there?
Realy looking forward to seeing Cooldine.
Also whats the story with Mikael D'Augenet or have I missed something??

There was initially bad blood over when McCoy first went to ride for Martin Pipe. McCoy supposedly had a gentlemans agreement to ride some of Nicholls' horses and Barber was livid when McCoy told them he was going to be stable jockey at Nicholashayne. There was more trouble over what happened in the 1998 Gold Cup. Cyborgo lost his action at the top of the hill and McCoy went to pull him up but he ended up carrying out Barber's horse See More Business and Timmy Murphy. There was war over that for a while afterwards with even whispers that it was a deliberate act of sabotage by the Pipe team - complete nonsense of course. I'd be very surprised to ever see McCoy get the leg up on Denman in the circumstances.

Mikael D'Haguenet has had a few minor setbacks but he should be out in a beginners chase in the next two or three weeks.