The Horse racing thread

Hardy · August 19, 2011, 03:42:19 PM

And Margot Did romps home.

SLIGONIAN · August 19, 2011, 03:44:45 PM

Thanks Hardy, whoop

Candyman · August 19, 2011, 03:54:20 PM

FCUK SAKE!!!

Donnellys Hollow · August 19, 2011, 04:16:31 PM

Quote from: Hardy on August 19, 2011, 02:48:56 PM
I've been looking for trends for trainers in form. Having paper traded for a while, I started yesterday with real money, following Michael Bell (7 winners from his last 20 runners before yesterday, strike rate 35%, ROI of 106% to level stakes win bets) and Roger Charlton (10 winners from his last 20 runners, SR=50%, ROI=172%).

Last week, on paper, Bell delivered 19.44 points profit on 8 one-point each way bets and Charlton delivered 29.98 on 10 bets.

Yesterday I had four bets of one point e.w. and made a profit of 6.26 points on my investment of 8 (ROI =78%) when Set To Music won at 12 on Betfair, 1.81 for the place.

Today, Prompter has just been touched off by half a length into 3rd in the 2:00 at York at 30 (!), 6.4 for the place.

The problem with hot yards is that you don't know when the streak is over and you'll lose some of whatever (if any) you make before you realise it's time to pull out. Or at worst, you notice the trend only when it's over and step in just in time to take the losses.

Anyway, for what it's worth, Bell has Margot Did in the 3:40 at York (25 on Betfair) and Charlton has Bated Breath in the same race (9.4) and Newnton Lodge in the 3:15 at Sandown (7.8 ) .

(Sorry for not mentioning this before now, but I wanted to get my feet wet before inviting people in for a dip. And sorry in advance if now is when it ends.)

But have you anything for Kilbeggan tonight Hardy?

Hardy · August 19, 2011, 04:45:01 PM

Ha. I do fancy Ever Dreaming in the 6:35. Just a fancy, mind.

Candyman · August 19, 2011, 06:24:03 PM

Have you DH? ;-)

Donnellys Hollow · August 19, 2011, 06:30:54 PM

Quote from: Candyman on August 19, 2011, 06:24:03 PM
Have you DH? ;-)

The last time I took any interest in a card at Kilbeggan was when I was riding one in the bumper. It was an experience that I prefer not to dwell on!

take_yer_points · August 25, 2011, 09:39:49 AM

Lads, I'm heading over to England this weekend and planning on going to Beverley races on Saturday? What sort of a spot is it? If anyone has any fancies for it I'd be delighted to hear them

Donnellys Hollow · August 25, 2011, 11:36:13 AM

Quote from: take_yer_points on August 25, 2011, 09:39:49 AM
Lads, I'm heading over to England this weekend and planning on going to Beverley races on Saturday? What sort of a spot is it? If anyone has any fancies for it I'd be delighted to hear them

It's a galloping stiff track so look for horses that have won previously over the race distance and preferably at the course.

Dubliner Robert Winston has a £22+ level stakes profit there over the past five seasons so he'd be a jockey to follow. The Silvestre de Sousa/Mark Johnston combination would also be worth following:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/course_home.sd?crs_id=6#topCrsTabs=upcoming_races&bottomCrsTabs=statistics

Donnellys Hollow · August 25, 2011, 08:48:20 PM

Sword Of Honour looks a bumper horse to follow.

take_yer_points · August 25, 2011, 10:19:45 PM

Quote from: Donnellys Hollow on August 25, 2011, 11:36:13 AM
Quote from: take_yer_points on August 25, 2011, 09:39:49 AM
Lads, I'm heading over to England this weekend and planning on going to Beverley races on Saturday? What sort of a spot is it? If anyone has any fancies for it I'd be delighted to hear them

It's a galloping stiff track so look for horses that have won previously over the race distance and preferably at the course.

Dubliner Robert Winston has a £22+ level stakes profit there over the past five seasons so he'd be a jockey to follow. The Silvestre de Sousa/Mark Johnston combination would also be worth following:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/course_home.sd?crs_id=6#topCrsTabs=upcoming_races&bottomCrsTabs=statistics

Cheers DH

attheraces · August 27, 2011, 02:37:06 AM

Haven't really been on since before Goodwood since I have been away travelling. Only watched the Frankel vs. Canford Cliffs there tonight. My god he was impressive, Queally seems to have bucked up. When's Frankel for out next?

Is he better than Sea The Stars DH?

Hardy · August 27, 2011, 10:16:34 AM

Quote from: attheraces on August 27, 2011, 02:37:06 AMWhen's Frankel for out next?

QEII Stakes, Ascot, 15th October.

bridge fan · August 27, 2011, 05:35:04 PM

good 2 see ballyholland back in the winners enclosure

Donnellys Hollow · August 28, 2011, 11:19:50 PM

Quote from: attheraces on August 27, 2011, 02:37:06 AM
Is he better than Sea The Stars DH?

At a mile he probably is. STS won a poorish Guineas - a 6f/7f horse in Delegator, and a half fit Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman.

Frankel's form is just rock solid - he has beaten the likes of Treasure Beach, Excelebration, Dream Ahead, Nathaniel, Dubawi Gold who have all franked the form since.

Sea The Stars' greatness though was his versatility over a range of distances up to a mile and a half and his unflappable temperament. I don't think Frankel would win a Derby or an Arc and I also think he might have a small kink in him. That's not necessarily a bad thing because many of the greats aren't 100% mentally straightforward but Sea The Stars never turned a hair throughout the whole of his 3yo season.