China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

No why would I?

Ask you before,  during your comparisons stage, Portugal doing better than the south, how come Ireland so far behind?

[Smurfy123]

I don't get you milltown? Why would I be happy?

[Milltown Row2]

I don't get you milltown? Why would I be happy?

I said you will be raging

[larryin89]

At what point is there the possibility of a complete return to normal not the "new normal "?

I've asked this a few time's now in conversation and yet to receive any decent feedback other than "oh that might never happen for many years "

Hypothetical scenario, absolutely no cases by next November for a sustained period of time , let's say three weeks , would that suffice ?

[Smurfy123]

Why?

[Milltown Row2]

Why?

Because you thought the north was doing poorly and it not. And trying to compare different countries is pointless but you keep at it, in a weird way.

so when the north got no deaths I thought you'd be raging as it's no different than the south!

Now answer my question, why has Ireland done so poorly compared to other countries?

[Smurfy123]

Why
Because airport should have been shut like NZ
Track and Trace from the off like SK
Close the borders
Do that for 3 weeks you said a lot of lives and money

[sid waddell]

At what point is there the possibility of a complete return to normal not the "new normal "?

I've asked this a few time's now in conversation and yet to receive any decent feedback other than "oh that might never happen for many years "

Hypothetical scenario, absolutely no cases by next November for a sustained period of time , let's say three weeks , would that suffice ?

That's the scenario we want to get to.

That's the question we want to be able to ask.

Which is why what happens over the next few weeks and months is crucial.

But we can't ask that question yet, because we aren't in that situation.

And if we do what the likes of Colm O'Rourke want, we're unlikely to any time soon get to the scenario where we can  reasonably can ask that question.

The Foot and Mouth outbreak in UK started around February 2001. The final case was on September 30th. The numbers now are going in the right direction. If we keep up that direction of travel, we might just be able to start asking this question by September 30th or thereabouts. But that's always subject to change.

When you're given antibiotics, there's a reason you're told to complete the course, not abandon it when you start to see an improvement.

[RadioGAAGAA]

At what point is there the possibility of a complete return to normal not the "new normal "?

I've asked this a few time's now in conversation and yet to receive any decent feedback other than "oh that might never happen for many years "

Hypothetical scenario, absolutely no cases by next November for a sustained period of time , let's say three weeks , would that suffice ?

3 weeks with no cases[1] and it would be politically unsustainable not to return to normal.

In terms of virology, it's a bit more hairy. Gestation period of this is usually <14 days[2].

You could have asymptomatic cases running around, so you'd ideally want to give them 3 chains of transmission - whats the chances of 3 asymptomatic carriers in a row without hitting anyone with symptoms?

But that would be 6 weeks with no cases. Hard sell.


[1]Defining no cases as no-one with symptoms. If there were mass testing kits available (i.e. that litmus paper one[3]), then either the entire population or big sections of it could be tested - so "no cases" may take on a different meaning as it's possible to prove negatives among the general population.
[2]https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-0504
[3]https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2020/Q1/paper-device-could-bring-portable-coronavirus-detection,-but-funding-bars-production.html

[Ed Ricketts]

Coronavirus: Why did Dominic Cummings say he predicted it?

The internet archive Wayback Machine, which tracks the changing versions of publicly available websites, shows that the blog was edited some time between 9 April and 3 May this year (after the pandemic started) to insert the reference to coronavirus and Chinese labs. This was first pointed out by a data scientist Jens Wiechers on social media, and can be seen here.

It is in the form of a new quote from an article already linked to in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. It was not in the original blog.

And the sitemap of Mr Cumming's blog corroborates this, showing that this post was indeed edited at 20:55:20 on the evening of 14 April this year, still available here. This happens to be the day Mr Cummings returned to work from his Durham trip.

It is a mystery why he felt the need to burnish his credentials as a coronavirus sage so much that he pointed to having explicitly warned about something that was only added to his blog after the event.

There is no other reference to coronavirus or Sars or Mers on his blog. There is a page on the mathematics of pandemic modelling and "herd immunity" in a long essay written on the education system in 2013, but no references to coronaviruses.

It is difficult to see why editing a year-old personal blog would have been on any list of priorities for any No 10 official on a day like that - in the middle of the period where hospital deaths had peaked the previous week, but care home deaths were still mounting.

But Mr Cummings clearly felt the need on Monday to point to examples of prescience on this specific issue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52808059

Full house of sociopathy and egomania. How is this guy not just an actual politician?

[johnnycool]

Coronavirus: Why did Dominic Cummings say he predicted it?

The internet archive Wayback Machine, which tracks the changing versions of publicly available websites, shows that the blog was edited some time between 9 April and 3 May this year (after the pandemic started) to insert the reference to coronavirus and Chinese labs. This was first pointed out by a data scientist Jens Wiechers on social media, and can be seen here.

It is in the form of a new quote from an article already linked to in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. It was not in the original blog.

And the sitemap of Mr Cumming's blog corroborates this, showing that this post was indeed edited at 20:55:20 on the evening of 14 April this year, still available here. This happens to be the day Mr Cummings returned to work from his Durham trip.

It is a mystery why he felt the need to burnish his credentials as a coronavirus sage so much that he pointed to having explicitly warned about something that was only added to his blog after the event.

There is no other reference to coronavirus or Sars or Mers on his blog. There is a page on the mathematics of pandemic modelling and "herd immunity" in a long essay written on the education system in 2013, but no references to coronaviruses.

It is difficult to see why editing a year-old personal blog would have been on any list of priorities for any No 10 official on a day like that - in the middle of the period where hospital deaths had peaked the previous week, but care home deaths were still mounting.

But Mr Cummings clearly felt the need on Monday to point to examples of prescience on this specific issue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52808059

Full house of sociopathy and egomania. How is this guy not just an actual politician?

He can't mask his abject lack of empathy or any other emotion as well as some of the other gobshites doing the media rounds at the minute trying to defend the indefensible.

[GetOverTheBar]

https://fullfact.org/health/sgarbi-coronavirus/

Not sure if this site has been posted up before, but another useful tool none the less.

[sid waddell]

 


@DMuircheartaigh
· 1h
@DublinAirport What's going on here? Approaching 4 hours now?

https://twitter.com/DublinAirport/status/1265641616787767302

@DublinAirport

Apparently, the pilot is testing his eyesight just to make sure he'll be ok for a transatlantic flight in a day or two. Sorry, that's obviously not the case. It's collecting information for a mapping software company.

[Rossfan]

Not so bad so far since 18th May relaxation.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/harris-covid-19-reproduction-rate-between-04-and-05-after-restrictions-lift-1002001.html

[GiveItToTheShooters]

Beginning to think that Smurfy is another one of Trailer's accounts. The similarity of their deludedness is uncanny.