26 County General Election 2020

[Main Street]

I don't think Michael Martin will risk dividing the party over a decision to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Even if he stood down I doubt that another party leader could effect close to a consensus on the issue.

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

[Hound]

SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.

It is a very interesting response.

The Green and Labour responses are exactly as you'd expect.

The FF and FG responses are pretty much what you'd expect.

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

[Angelo]

SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.

It is a very interesting response.

The Green and Labour responses are exactly as you'd expect.

The FF and FG responses are pretty much what you'd expect.

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

What's the sample size?

[five points]

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

There is more than one mindset there when you sweep the boards in a general election. SF benefitted from disillusionment on all sides. Most people are happy to see higher taxes once they're not the ones paying.

[five points]

What's the sample size?

5,000 I think which makes it bigger and in theory more reliable than normal polls. The usual caveats about bias etc apply.

[Jim_Murphy_74]

I don't think Michael Martin will risk dividing the party over a decision to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Even if he stood down I doubt that another party leader could effect close to a consensus on the issue.

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

Obvious as it looks I think they won't do that.  Making the Shinners leaders of opposition will help them grow even more support.   Clipping away at the sidelines, getting the airtime that leader of opposition gets.

I think FF/FG would rather not face that.

/Jim.

[yellowcard]

What's the sample size?

5,000 I think which makes it bigger and in theory more reliable than normal polls. The usual caveats about bias etc apply.

The polls have been largely consistent with the results in this election so I have no doubt as to the accuracy of this one either. If SF actually implemented the policies in it's manifesto I think they would lose a lot of those new voters.

[Hound]

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

[weareros]

I don't think Michael Martin will risk dividing the party over a decision to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Even if he stood down I doubt that another party leader could effect close to a consensus on the issue.

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

I think FG would rather take their chances on another election than do that. They ran a horrid bad election campaign (possibly the worst in history) and even improving a couple of percentage points could also make them the largest party in a new election. If FF/SF/Greens cannot cobble together a government, we are facing a re-run in April/May (assuming two months of everyone "trying" to form a gov). It could come down who sickens the electorate the most during that period. Any kind of FF/FG coalition would also sicken the electorate who voted "change", and would only privately please the left because it would finally mean either one of those parties gets wiped out, or they merge and we are back to a big two again, with Sinn Fein owning left, what's left of FF/FG owning center right.

[Rudi]

Thomas Pringle back in.

Why, what has he done, shout his mouth off from the back benches, like a typical lefty. Remind you of someone?

Who is he supposed to remind me of?

And nothing wrong with the odd fly in the ointment raising concerns on behalf of the less fortunate.

He reminds me of you. He wants an increase in welfare and social housing in Donegal, for people who have no interest in working. The working and middle classes have to pay for all this, bit of a balls when the working class & middle class are struggling, with paying mortgages, childcare, food etc.

[Hound]

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

There is more than one mindset there when you sweep the boards in a general election. SF benefitted from disillusionment on all sides. Most people are happy to see higher taxes once they're not the ones paying.

Yep. SF knew they wouldn't go wrong with that message.

[weareros]

Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

There's a lot of thinking that that's how it would work out. But it's like a football team depending on the gaelforce wind in the second half (like Clare in the Hyde on Sunday), you still have to play some football too.

[five points]

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

Agree 100%

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

I think it would backfire.

[Itchy]

As a Nordie I am equally as embarrassed and annoyed by Cullinane's antics as by Andersons. Not as annoyed as Mary Lou though I'd say.

I'd say some of the 24% who gave SF no.1s are overboard already as a result.
Some FFrs canvassing in Westmeath were told at a few houses "No, we're  voting for the Sinn Féin man".
Sorcha Clarke was HER name

If you think that then you really are naive, the electorate had 2 full weeks of an all out attack form RTE, Indo etc on Sinn Fein and 25% of them said that they dont give a shite about that. I doubt that 25% or any amount of them are now saying oh God I wish I hadnt voted for them as one of them said "up the Ra". It was a stupid thing to say but it will make zero difference.

[Itchy]

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

Agree 100%

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

I think it would backfire.

Or if they tried to form a government, FF and FG refused to respect the 25% of votes they got and SF went back and said due to FF/FG insulting the electorate we need a bigger majority now, I think they would get it. No one is running back to FF and FG in the short term. What evidence is there that suggests otherwise?