A United Ireland - The Nationalist Paradox

[Evil Genius]

Interesting post. A number of points:

1 - There are nuances within nationalism, just as there are nuances within unionism. How many protestant religious denominations are there? How many loyalist paramilitary groupings are there? How many unionist parties are there? How many fraternal marching organizations are there? In all cases, it's a lot more than one!

Of course there are.

But just about the only thing which unites "Unionists" is that they all identify as British, in one way or another. (The clue is in the name)

Meaning that whatever their other differences, I firmly believe that they would all coalesce around a simple "No" (a favoured word  ) if asked whether they want to be in a UI.

2 - Supposed nationalist ambivalence about the constitutional position is not something unionism should take for granted. Yes, there are many nationalists who are kinda content with with the constitutional arrangement, but the almost daily rantings of Jim Allister on Nolan, continued hostility to even any mild expression of the island's indigenous culture, and the annual marching season, are pretty effective at keeping nationalists reminded that at the end of the day, the state was not set up with them in mind and that reunification of the island remains the ultimate goal. If unionism wants nationalism to become more comfortable with the union, the great service they get from the NHS is all well and good, but they might want to think about dialing the bigotry down a few notches.

True.

But just as eg Jim Allister et al fire up Nationalists, so does eg Gerry Kelly fire up Unionists. Meaning that if the dial got turned up to 11 in any pre-Referendum campaign, as it surely would, then Unionists will all turn out to vote "No" (there's that word again!).

And as Prof. O'Leary prophesised, there aren't enough Nationalists currently in NI to make a majority, at least as things stand.

3 - I've heard this "bloodless genocide" claim about southern protestants before, but anyone who has actually looked into the "plight" of southern protestants has found them doing pretty well. They're over-represented in higher paying professions, for one thing. The proportion of protestants living in the free state has decreased, but I very much doubt that it's because of anything sinister. As the census shows, the proportion of protestants living in the north has also been in a steady decline, but a lot of that is down to historically higher fertility rates among nationalists (leveling off now that they're becoming more affluent) and an increase in the number of 'others' living in the place. Also, of the people from NI who go to places like England for university, nationalists are more likely to come back than unionists.

Such Southern Protestants as remain in ROI are doubtless doing well - isn't that why they remained? But it's the ones who didn't stay, because they saw nothing down for them, who bear most heavily on Unionist thinking.

And in any case, a few thousand CofI types in cushy parts of Dublin or Cork these days have no resonance with eg your average working class NI Prod in East Belfast.

4 - SF topping the poll in Dáil elections? I wouldn't worry too much about that. The days are gone when free-state parties of any stripe would win an outright majority. SF are still too toxic for most potential coalition partners. Yes it's hypocritical of FF/FG to support power-sharing in the north while refusing to consider SF to be fit for government in the south, but there it is. If anything, a million northern prods would be the perfect counter-balance to any potential domination of SF over politics in a reunified Ireland. A million northern prods would also have a lot more influence in an all-Ireland parliament than they have at Westminster, that's for sure.

SF don't have to actually form the government, or even hold the balance of power. The thought that they might some day is quite enough for even the most moderate Unionist to back away. Rapidly.

While Unionists aren't interested in holding the balance in the Dáil and not just because it would be neither guaranteed or for ever - we're not interested in the Dáil full stop.

In truth, Nationalists who have warm feelings for a UI and Irishness etc, need to realise that Unionists have no such warm feelings, even if it would leave them materially better off.

And if that's hard to take in, just ask yourself this: "Could I ever imagine harbouring my own warm, fuzzy feelings for the UK and Britishness etc?"

5 - You are correct that it's in the best interests of nationalists to make NI work through better governance, but I think the SDLP are better equipped to deliver on that than SF. Thankfully they have a say in the matter thanks to the power-sharing arrangement, so we'll see how that plays out.

The SDLP is a busted flush and has been since the days of Hume and Mallon etc.

There is no sign of a major revival that I can see, at least, while I doubt many Unionists give them too much thought either way.

6 - I agree that banging on about a border poll is a bit premature. A border poll strikes me as being far down the list of things that need to happen between now and reunification. Per point 5, the economy of the north needs to be restructured so that it gets off what I call the "begging bowl economics" business model and becomes more self sufficient. And yes, that might undermine nationalist sense of urgency for a united Ireland were it to happen, but that would be countered by the constant stream of unionist bigotry in point 2 above.

If you are saying that talk of a border poll needs to be "parked" while other matters are sorted, then that suits Unionists just fine. (Why wouldn't it?)

But you need to have a word with your fellow Nationalists to agree to it first.

Good Luck with  that! 

[Eamonnca1]

Yours is a confidence not often displayed by political unionism and it's certainly not evident from what we hear from media journalists on the airwaves and in written publications like the Newsletter and Belfast Telegrsph.

All we ever seem to hear is constant negativity and a distillation of fear. Listening to Jim Allister, Jamie Bryson & others ramping up the rhetoric about how the Protocol had placed us in a waiting room for a United Ireland. Even Gregory Campbell stated that he thought a border poll was coming at some point on Claire Byrne live 2 weeks ago.

I'm just interested to know if more moderate voices within unionism like yourself who may get drowned out, are much more comfortable about the prospect of a border poll and their place within the union. If people of your ilk could get their voice heard perhaps your people would be better served rather than seeing every little compromise as some sort of defeat. If that was the case we might not be witnessing the disgraceful scenes we've witnessed on the streets over the last week. Unionism does a very poor job at selling everything as a defeat to its own people and as a result appears to be constantly put on the defensive.

A fair summary of unionism don't you think EG.  unionism has a reasonable argument, but the antagonism, lack of generosity and anti-Irishness, means that you have few allies and little influence outside your own community.

I would suggest that unionism's argument would be a lot more reasonable if it didn't give off the odor of spite and sectarian supremacy in every move it makes. As an ideology it belongs in the same family of political ideas as South African apartheid, the American confederacy, and Israeli abuse of the Palestinians.

[Evil Genius]

So yes, there is a paradox that if nationalists make the NI state work better, it might undermine their own cause, but unionism is plenty good enough at undermining its own cause and reminding nationalists that the NI state was founded as a comfort zone for bigots, and it continues to serve this function with indecent efficiency.

Nationalism's problem isn't that Unionists wind them (Nationalists) up. Indeed it's not a problem for a lot of Unionists either, but I digress! 

Rather, Nationalism's problem is that they wind Unionists up - rather well in many cases. Whereas if Nationalists are to win any Border Poll, they need to find a way to appeal to Unionists (or enough of them to gain a majority).

And sorry to break the news, but voting in droves for SF ain't gonna do that, any more than Unionists voting in droves for the DUP charms Nationalists.

[Eamonnca1]

So we seem to be in agreement about a few things. Unionism is undermined by the extremists in unionism who help to motivate nationalists to push harder for a UI.

Nationalism is undermined by SF who wind unionists up by ... being SF, and dealing with the baggage they have.

There was an interesting call to LBC today, I think, from a young fella talking about the Bobby Story funeral. They were saying that if your neighbour across the street broke some Covid regulations and got away with it, you'd be a bit pissed off but not enough to start a riot. However what poisons things in NI is the idea that "themmuns got away with it." It's the depth of the divisions that drives people to make mountains out of what would be considered molehills in any other country.

Bilingual signage? Already exists in Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and nobody seems to pass any remarks. Try to get it established in NI? "Nope, that'd be a win for the fenians. We have to block it, or if we can't then sure we'll make up some sort of language of our own (we could try basing it on the Ballymena accent, hey) to divert some of the funding from Irish."

Official events to commemorate WWI? Easy enough to do in Britain. In NI? Forget about getting cross-party support for it. "We will not tolerate tributes to the British army after what they did to our country! Grrr!"

[Evil Genius]

I love the way you keep saying "How many times" as if you have some sort of super answer. It's typical a little of Unionism at the moment. You appear to think it's an impossible dream. A complete burying your heads in the sand exercise.

Nationalists have only begun talking about a UI. Brexit has been a huge game changer. In 50 years when people look back and look for triggers that brought about the UI that will be a key one.

The argument isn't being lost, we haven't even made it yet.

It's a question actually, but no matter.

And I'm not saying a UI is "impossible". I'm merely saying that the prospect genuinely doesn't frighten me, now or in the foreseeable future, for the reasons I'm trying to outline.

As for Nationalists "only having begun talking about a UI", where have you been for the last 100 years? I don't know when this Board started, but I'd hazard a guess that it wasn't too long before someone* posted a "United Ireland" thread, the first of many.

* - Fearon? 

Another thought, in most recent times when there was a hard choice to make, The EU and The UK government choose an all Ireland solution. They side-lined unionists. Unless unionists start to engage they'll be side-lined again and they be left moaning about some political solution that they didn't want.

The NI Protocol may not give Unionists the Union they want. But neither does it give Nationalists the UI they want, the latter being as further away as ever.

As for being "side-lined", fact is, it is not for Brussels or Westminster (Dublin either) to determine whether or when there may be a UI.

Under the terms of the GFA (remember that?) such a decision ultimately lies with the people of NI, where Unionism will have a veto so long as they retain a majority.

And where Nationalism will have to engage in some new thinking if it is to gain a majority, not least how to solve the Paradox which I outlined in the opening to this thread.

So I'll leave that with you guys, if I may, while I take another break from single-handedly trying to "sail round Ireland"! 

[Eamonnca1]

Interesting post. A number of points:

1 - There are nuances within nationalism, just as there are nuances within unionism. How many protestant religious denominations are there? How many loyalist paramilitary groupings are there? How many unionist parties are there? How many fraternal marching organizations are there? In all cases, it's a lot more than one!

Of course there are.

But just about the only thing which unites "Unionists" is that they all identify as British, in one way or another. (The clue is in the name)

Meaning that whatever their other differences, I firmly believe that they would all coalesce around a simple "No" (a favoured word  ) if asked whether they want to be in a UI.

Well the same would happen for nationalism, that's what happens in a referrendum.

2 - Supposed nationalist ambivalence about the constitutional position is not something unionism should take for granted. Yes, there are many nationalists who are kinda content with with the constitutional arrangement, but the almost daily rantings of Jim Allister on Nolan, continued hostility to even any mild expression of the island's indigenous culture, and the annual marching season, are pretty effective at keeping nationalists reminded that at the end of the day, the state was not set up with them in mind and that reunification of the island remains the ultimate goal. If unionism wants nationalism to become more comfortable with the union, the great service they get from the NHS is all well and good, but they might want to think about dialing the bigotry down a few notches.

True.

But just as eg Jim Allister et al fire up Nationalists, so does eg Gerry Kelly fire up Unionists. Meaning that if the dial got turned up to 11 in any pre-Referendum campaign, as it surely would, then Unionists will all turn out to vote "No" (there's that word again!).

And as Prof. O'Leary prophesised, there aren't enough Nationalists currently in NI to make a majority, at least as things stand.

I agree that unionists have not cornered the market on winding up the other side.

3 - I've heard this "bloodless genocide" claim about southern protestants before, but anyone who has actually looked into the "plight" of southern protestants has found them doing pretty well. They're over-represented in higher paying professions, for one thing. The proportion of protestants living in the free state has decreased, but I very much doubt that it's because of anything sinister. As the census shows, the proportion of protestants living in the north has also been in a steady decline, but a lot of that is down to historically higher fertility rates among nationalists (leveling off now that they're becoming more affluent) and an increase in the number of 'others' living in the place. Also, of the people from NI who go to places like England for university, nationalists are more likely to come back than unionists.

Such Southern Protestants as remain in ROI are doubtless doing well - isn't that why they remained? But it's the ones who didn't stay, because they saw nothing down for them, who bear most heavily on Unionist thinking.

And in any case, a few thousand CofI types in cushy parts of Dublin or Cork these days have no resonance with eg your average working class NI Prod in East Belfast.

The ones that remained simply got outnumbered by a faster-growing catholic population. And let's not forget, a new state had popped into existence just up the road in which protestants could get first dibs on jobs and public housing. That's quite an incentive to leave the south for working class prods, wouldn't you say? That said, I have my doubts that there was a biblical mass exodus.

4 - SF topping the poll in Dáil elections? I wouldn't worry too much about that. The days are gone when free-state parties of any stripe would win an outright majority. SF are still too toxic for most potential coalition partners. Yes it's hypocritical of FF/FG to support power-sharing in the north while refusing to consider SF to be fit for government in the south, but there it is. If anything, a million northern prods would be the perfect counter-balance to any potential domination of SF over politics in a reunified Ireland. A million northern prods would also have a lot more influence in an all-Ireland parliament than they have at Westminster, that's for sure.

SF don't have to actually form the government, or even hold the balance of power. The thought that they might some day is quite enough for even the most moderate Unionist to back away. Rapidly.

While Unionists aren't interested in holding the balance in the Dáil and not just because it would be neither guaranteed or for ever - we're not interested in the Dáil full stop.

In truth, Nationalists who have warm feelings for a UI and Irishness etc, need to realise that Unionists have no such warm feelings, even if it would leave them materially better off.

And if that's hard to take in, just ask yourself this: "Could I ever imagine harbouring my own warm, fuzzy feelings for the UK and Britishness etc?"

Absolutely not, for the same reasons that you cite for why it's so hard to convert a unionist into a nationalist. This is about identity politics. People vote on this issue based on emotions and feelings, not on facts about GDP per capita. This is why I've always said that the Irish identity has to be more accessible and less threatening to northern Protestants, which is why I'm one of the people who supports reform on such issues as flag protocols and club naming conventions in the GAA. Get the prods playing hurling first, never mind a border poll.

5 - You are correct that it's in the best interests of nationalists to make NI work through better governance, but I think the SDLP are better equipped to deliver on that than SF. Thankfully they have a say in the matter thanks to the power-sharing arrangement, so we'll see how that plays out.

The SDLP is a busted flush and has been since the days of Hume and Mallon etc.

There is no sign of a major revival that I can see, at least, while I doubt many Unionists give them too much thought either way.

Colum Eastwood and Nicola Mallon have good potential. They're competent people, but they're struggling to make their voices heard in the current environment. Hume and Mallon were like saints compared to Adams and McGuinness when the provos were in full flight, and since the majority of nationalists have always opposed violence (contrary to the popular belief among unionists) the SDLP were strong during the Troubles. Take the provos out of action and SF are now a lot more respectable. That makes the SDLP's job harder, but occasional gaffes like the Storey funeral are helpful to them.

6 - I agree that banging on about a border poll is a bit premature. A border poll strikes me as being far down the list of things that need to happen between now and reunification. Per point 5, the economy of the north needs to be restructured so that it gets off what I call the "begging bowl economics" business model and becomes more self sufficient. And yes, that might undermine nationalist sense of urgency for a united Ireland were it to happen, but that would be countered by the constant stream of unionist bigotry in point 2 above.

If you are saying that talk of a border poll needs to be "parked" while other matters are sorted, then that suits Unionists just fine. (Why wouldn't it?)

Yes. It suits unionists, and it also suits nationalists in that it would give them space to build their case. (I was listening to a lecture by Sean Farren today about the zero-sum thinking that infects political thinking in NI, BTW.)

But you need to have a word with your fellow Nationalists to agree to it first.

Believe me, I've been trying! If your boys would tone the rhetoric down a bit it would help me to get my message through!

Good Luck with  that! 

Thanks.

[Orior]

In other words, Nationalists have done fcuk-all but talk about/plan for a UI for the last 100 years, the problem being that they've been talking amongst themselves (alone  ), with nothing conciliatory or persuasive to say to Unionism.

People like John Hume and Gerry Adams said plenty in the way of conciliation to unionism over the years. It's hardly their fault if unionists can't hear it.  Latest example: The Claire Byrne show.

Leo varadkar: Any united Ireland will have to respect the British identity of the unionists.

Mary Lou McDonald: Any united Ireland will have to respect the British identity of the unionists.

Micheál Martin: Any united Ireland will have to respect the British identity of the unionists.

Gregory Campbell: "Haha ha! You just don't get it, do you?! We're British!"

There are none so deaf as those who will not hear.

Exactly.

[imtommygunn]

Until Brexit a united Ireland was some far away dream. It isn't so much any more.

Agreed though that there needs to be more thinking on the nationalist side on the front of inclusivity.

Also IMO SF can't deliver a united Ireland. It needs to be someone else. At present they don't exist. Nationalism here is crying out for a party, not SF, to grab this by the scruff of the neck.

[tiempo]

Until Brexit a united Ireland was some far away dream. It isn't so much any more.

Agreed though that there needs to be more thinking on the nationalist side on the front of inclusivity.

Also IMO SF can't deliver a united Ireland. It needs to be someone else. At present they don't exist. Nationalism here is crying out for a party, not SF, to grab this by the scruff of the neck.

Scotland style Hibernia party? Its just not gonna happen. If Luke Ming can go from being evicted to elected then SF can play a major role in the formation of a UI, or should they be cut out of the process? As it stands the only party campaigning for a border poll is the biggest party on the island. Biggest party on the island = there must be a fair amount of support for it and for them to lead the way. And as SF consistently say, it doesn't belong to them, it has to be collaborative.

[imtommygunn]

I didn't say they should be cut out. I just don't see how they can drive it at all. I am not anti sf but as this board is illustrative of there will just be people who will never be on board with them at all - that's from both sides.

[Rossfan]

It would help if SF ( and others too but we're talking SF) would put out their suggested blueprint  the new All Ireland entity.

PS when I suggested this before one of their spokesmen on this Board said they couldn't because FF and FG would criticise it 

[tiempo]

They're the only party on the island with UI in their manifesto and they're the biggest party on the island, they're driving it at present and inviting collaboration, which the establishment in both states are roundly ignoring.

Unionists don't want it by definition, which is fine, equally as legitimate as Nationalists wanting it.

FF/FG in the south don't want it as they know it breaks the hegemony and puts them on the back foot, it would require them to deal with the 6 counties which they have no notion of doing.

SDLP while in serious decline are wedded to FF which puts them in no mans land.

Its kinda SF or nothing presently until others step up. I'd say the Tories would be more willing than anyone the way things are going.

[Armagh18]

They're the only party on the island with UI in their manifesto and they're the biggest party on the island, they're driving it at present and inviting collaboration, which the establishment in both states are roundly ignoring.

Unionists don't want it by definition, which is fine, equally as legitimate as Nationalists wanting it.

FF/FG in the south don't want it as they know it breaks the hegemony and puts them on the back foot, it would require them to deal with the 6 counties which they have no notion of doing.

SDLP while in serious decline are wedded to FF which puts them in no mans land.

Its kinda SF or nothing presently until others step up. I'd say the Tories would be more willing than anyone the way things are going.

Absolutely.

[Taylor]

The majority of people on this board are of a Nationalist/catholic persuasion.

Look at the amount of posts/arguing/non acceptance etc that there is when a UI is discussed.

It will take a decade or more to convince this group of the merits of a UI.

Now add in the other group - unionists/loyalists - imagine how long it will take to convince them.

[tiempo]

It would help if SF ( and others too but we're talking SF) would put out their suggested blueprint  the new All Ireland entity.

PS when I suggested this before one of their spokesmen on this Board said they couldn't because FF and FG would criticise it 

Secure a poll, outline blueprint. Egg, chicken.