Poll

Who will win?

Tyrone by 1-3
Tyrone by 4+
Kerry by 1-3
Kerry by 4+

Author Topic: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021  (Read 77009 times)

Jayop

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #855 on: August 25, 2021, 08:28:27 PM »
Have Tyrone improved? I think they've went back a good bit.

Tyrone in 03 were a top team whereas I think they're maybe not quite at that level here. That said I don't think Kerry are as good as 03 either.

I think he means improved since 2019 and ya I would say we have but it's hard to call with not as much football being played.

In 2019 Tyrone went into round 2 in the qualifiers and didn't impress much. Beat Cork and the Rossies in the super8 to get to the semi. Kerry only beat us by a goal that day on a day where they scored 5 frees to our 3. Was very little between the sides.

MayoBuck

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #856 on: August 25, 2021, 08:50:38 PM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

hoynevalley

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #857 on: August 25, 2021, 08:53:57 PM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

Tyrone over done the kicking ball into forwards. Worked early on until Kerry employed sweeper.

CK_Redhand

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #858 on: August 25, 2021, 08:58:52 PM »
Out of interest, what price were Tyrone heading that 2003 All-Ireland semi?  Underdogs no doubt but maybe not as big an underdog as this weekend?  I remember standing at half time finding it hard to believe we were so far ahead

Yes. Very surprising odds. Tyrone absolutely left the game behind them in 2019. Kerry have probably improved since, but so have Tyrone.

I suppose it's more of a reflection on the bets being placed than the actual odds.

I've stated similar in a different thread a while ago but I think it's worth reiterating.

The bookies odds always reflect the money placed. They have a fixed spread and make the same amount of money regardless of the outcome of a market.  When the amount of money placed on an upcoming event changes the odds will change too. The "actual odds" is the public opinion of what the outcome will be. Its a wisdom of the masses sort of thing.

Armagh18

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #859 on: August 25, 2021, 09:08:09 PM »
I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.
Hmm Armagh should be on that list… Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone… verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?
Because they were a brain fart away from beating Monaghan in the championship, they’re definitely clear of Cork, Galway, Kildare and Meath. Drew with Donegal in the league and gave Tyrone a game after being crippled with injuries. For me there is the top 3 who are well clear with not an awful pile between any of them, then the 4 Ulster teams with not a whole pile between them (Armagh probably admittedly the weakest but not by much.) Then the rest.

Jayop

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #860 on: August 25, 2021, 09:11:20 PM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

You could say that about so many games we've played against Kerry or Mayo in the championship for the last 10 years. So close and just wasteful. In old me I always blamed the ref for a lot of those losses but in all fairness we kicked the games away.

2019 Kerry 1 goal in it.
2016 Mayo 1 point in it
2015 Kerry 4 points in it




Jayop

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #861 on: August 25, 2021, 09:14:16 PM »
I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.
Hmm Armagh should be on that list… Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone… verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?
Because they were a brain fart away from beating Monaghan in the championship, they’re definitely clear of Cork, Galway, Kildare and Meath. Drew with Donegal in the league and gave Tyrone a game after being crippled with injuries. For me there is the top 3 who are well clear with not an awful pile between any of them, then the 4 Ulster teams with not a whole pile between them (Armagh probably admittedly the weakest but not by much.) Then the rest.

The table can't take into account brain farts or bad luck. It's pure stats and you are where you are on it. Until you start to win those games against teams above you you wont climb. I think after next years league Armagh will be in the top 6 or 7 again. If the qualifiers are back next year then either a big win in Ulster or a good run in the qualifiers could push ye up.

Milltown Row2

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #862 on: August 25, 2021, 09:38:56 PM »
Out of interest, what price were Tyrone heading that 2003 All-Ireland semi?  Underdogs no doubt but maybe not as big an underdog as this weekend?  I remember standing at half time finding it hard to believe we were so far ahead

Yes. Very surprising odds. Tyrone absolutely left the game behind them in 2019. Kerry have probably improved since, but so have Tyrone.

I suppose it's more of a reflection on the bets being placed than the actual odds.

I've stated similar in a different thread a while ago but I think it's worth reiterating.

The bookies odds always reflect the money placed. They have a fixed spread and make the same amount of money regardless of the outcome of a market.  When the amount of money placed on an upcoming event changes the odds will change too. The "actual odds" is the public opinion of what the outcome will be. Its a wisdom of the masses sort of thing.

Haven’t seen too many poor bookies
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

inroundthesquare

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #863 on: August 25, 2021, 09:39:38 PM »
I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.
Hmm Armagh should be on that list… Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone… verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?
Because they were a brain fart away from beating Monaghan in the championship, they’re definitely clear of Cork, Galway, Kildare and Meath. Drew with Donegal in the league and gave Tyrone a game after being crippled with injuries. For me there is the top 3 who are well clear with not an awful pile between any of them, then the 4 Ulster teams with not a whole pile between them (Armagh probably admittedly the weakest but not by much.) Then the rest.

Top 4 then the rest. Tyrone have been in at least the All-Ireland semi 4 of the last 5 years. Monaghan 2018 and Cavan 2020 only other Ulster teams to get there.

imtommygunn

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #864 on: August 25, 2021, 09:53:00 PM »
Have Tyrone improved? I think they've went back a good bit.

Tyrone in 03 were a top team whereas I think they're maybe not quite at that level here. That said I don't think Kerry are as good as 03 either.

I think he means improved since 2019 and ya I would say we have but it's hard to call with not as much football being played.

In 2019 Tyrone went into round 2 in the qualifiers and didn't impress much. Beat Cork and the Rossies in the super8 to get to the semi. Kerry only beat us by a goal that day on a day where they scored 5 frees to our 3. Was very little between the sides.

So do I. I don’t think they are better. Playing more attacking football yes but better no.

MayoBuck

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #865 on: August 25, 2021, 10:12:13 PM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

You could say that about so many games we've played against Kerry or Mayo in the championship for the last 10 years. So close and just wasteful. In old me I always blamed the ref for a lot of those losses but in all fairness we kicked the games away.

2019 Kerry 1 goal in it.
2016 Mayo 1 point in it
2015 Kerry 4 points in it

That game in 2016 was a very nervy finish from us. Even though we had an extra man it was all Tyrone in the last 5 minutes.

Jayop

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #866 on: August 25, 2021, 10:14:48 PM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

You could say that about so many games we've played against Kerry or Mayo in the championship for the last 10 years. So close and just wasteful. In old me I always blamed the ref for a lot of those losses but in all fairness we kicked the games away.

2019 Kerry 1 goal in it.
2016 Mayo 1 point in it
2015 Kerry 4 points in it

That game in 2016 was a very nervy finish from us. Even though we had an extra man it was all Tyrone in the last 5 minutes.

I still cant get over Cav getting the line that day.

RedHand88

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #867 on: August 26, 2021, 07:23:26 AM »
From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

You could say that about so many games we've played against Kerry or Mayo in the championship for the last 10 years. So close and just wasteful. In old me I always blamed the ref for a lot of those losses but in all fairness we kicked the games away.

2019 Kerry 1 goal in it.
2016 Mayo 1 point in it
2015 Kerry 4 points in it

That game in 2016 was a very nervy finish from us. Even though we had an extra man it was all Tyrone in the last 5 minutes.
That was the hardest defeat to swallow since 1995. Tyrone missed some amount of chances in the last 15minutes.

Fuzzman

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #868 on: August 26, 2021, 08:55:36 AM »
Any spare tickets folks?

seafoid

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Re: Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021
« Reply #869 on: August 26, 2021, 09:23:48 AM »
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/ciar%C3%A1n-murphy-tyrone-s-blase-attitude-to-vaccination-is-questionable-at-best-1.4656047
Ciarán Murphy: Tyrone’s blase attitude to vaccination is questionable at best
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Feargal Logan calling the jab a ‘conundrum’ makes Kerry postponement a lucky break
about an hour ago
Ciarán Murphy
 1
Tyrone boss Feargal Logan has said the issue of vaccination among players was a ‘conundrum’. Photograph: Laszlo Geczo/Inpho
Tyrone boss Feargal Logan has said the issue of vaccination among players was a ‘conundrum’. Photograph: Laszlo Geczo/Inpho

 
Feargal Logan, Tyrone joint-manager speaking to Declan Bogue of the Irish Examiner about the level of vaccination in their squad – Monday, August 16th: “In fairness part of the consideration this year was because it was a compressed league and championship, we were anxious that if guys were vaccinated they might go under for two weeks. And that might inhibit their performance. Vaccination has been a conundrum. We didn’t make it mandatory across the board. There are some players vaccinated for a variety of reasons, be they on the front line, or work in health.”

Tyrone had played their cards absolutely perfectly over the course of the weekend of August 14th and 15th. On that Saturday, they announced that they were pulling out of the All-Ireland semi-final against Kerry due to the high incidence of Covid-19 in their camp.

Many people took that withdrawal at face value. The GAA, in dire need of the gate receipts and backed into a nasty corner by the idea of an All-Ireland semi-final being conceded, announced the following night that they would give Tyrone another six days to prepare, refixing the game for this Saturday, August 28th, and suddenly Tyrone had gotten exactly what they wanted.

Asking questions as to how this decision was reached seemed a little churlish, and most people were just relieved that we were going to see a football game, even if it was two weeks after the initial date.

Covid is everywhere. These things happen, and the disruption the delay would cause would be confined to club players in two counties, so it was time to move on, sympathise with those Tyrone players affected, particularly the player hospitalised with it, and start preparing for an All-Ireland semi-final.

Wheels came off
But then Feargal Logan spoke to Declan Bogue for Monday morning’s Irish Examiner. And that was when the wheels came off. When Bogue asked “what are the levels of vaccination in the panel?”, Logan would have been well within his rights to tell him that information is confidential.


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But that’s not what Logan said. He said “vaccination was a conundrum”. He outlined management’s anxiety that a player who got vaccinated might miss two weeks training. What are we to infer from those comments? Can we presume that coaching anxiety about missing training due to vaccination was conveyed to the players?

Those who couldn’t avoid getting vaccinated for their jobs, it appeared, were vaccinated. For everyone else, what messages were they hearing from their management?

You would think this point hardly needs making but if you’re worried about squad disruption, actually contracting Covid, even in the best case, is far, far more disruptive than this extremely pessimistic, alarmist notion about the vaccine knocking you out for two weeks.

Even asymptomatic Covid means you’re isolating for a prescribed amount of time, with the attendant close contact confusion, while obviously symptomatic Covid can knock you out for a lot longer than that.

You can make a decision which you think is informed about declining vaccination, or you can plead leniency (and then apply pressure for further leniency) when Covid spreads like wildfire – 20 positive tests! – through your camp, but in my opinion you can’t do both.

There have been plenty of people involved in music and the arts, some of them dyed-in-the-wool GAA people, who have looked at crowds of 40,000 people at the All-Ireland and asked, quite rightly, why the GAA are getting preferential treatment – imagine their anger at seeing this blase attitude to vaccination.

Precautions
Elsewhere in that interview, Logan tells us about all the precautions that Tyrone have been taking – all team meetings outdoors, gym sessions on your own, keeping the shower facilities in their training centre closed. But why not take the one course of action that is proven to be far, far more effective than any other preventative measure?

Logan was worried about vaccinated players missing two weeks of training after getting the jab, and now the entire country has had to wait for two weeks. If Tyrone didn’t take the most obvious, most effective precaution to protect themselves from Covid, it is reasonable to ask why the GAA put the entire season on hold for them. It is just as well this Logan interview came out after the GAA had already granted them the six extra days.

The reality is that vaccination is not a panacea – Covid could still have entered the Tyrone camp, there could have been a number of players who didn’t want to get vaccinated and hence got it, it might even have been contracted by someone already vaccinated, and it could still have caused some disruption to their preparations. It’s everywhere in the community, and attaching blame to people for getting it is fairly pointless.

But if, as a group, they decided that missing a few nights’ training while recovering from the vaccine was a bigger risk than just not getting vaccinated in the first place, then Tyrone have gotten off very, very lightly.
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