Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021

[nrico2006]

I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.

Hmm Armagh should be on that list... Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone... verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?

[Jayop]

I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.

Hmm Armagh should be on that list... Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone... verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?

D1 team, beat Monaghan and drew with Donegal in the league, would still have gained good points last year from promotion (iirc) and gained points from those two games in the league. With no back door it's very hard for teams to move much. Meath and Kildare probably sprung ahead of them because they got promoted this year beating teams around them.

[Captain Obvious]

I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.

Hmm Armagh should be on that list… Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone… verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?

Why Meath, Cork are on the list is what you should be asking.

[APM]

I actually looked at the list on Boards.ie
Link here: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057173179/football-ranking-table/p35

Armagh are at 11 on the list.  The reasoning for Armagh's positioning is explained on the following page.  They had been at 7 on the table in early July, which I would argue is a better reflection of where they are at now.  They secured their place in Division 1 (playing four games instead of the usual 7). On that basis, 7th would seem about right.  However, they dropped points on this ranking following defeat to Monaghan because at that point Monaghan were below them in the table and Armagh were expected to beat them.   Arising from that Armagh lost 3.42 ranking points while Monaghan received the same.  It's quite a big swing for one game and would place Armagh at upper mid-table Division 2. But is it that unrealistic?

If Armagh were to play Cork, Meath or Kildare tomorrow, I would suggest that they would have more than a 50/50 chance of beating all three - but you couldn't depend on them. Only for their long standing poor record against Galway, I would suggest that they would beat them too, but again many doubts. All of these teams are Div 2 (coming or going).

So, I would say, the ranking is slightly un-reflective of Armagh's season and there is a kneejerk element to the loss of one game that really was a toin-coss beforehand. It cannot take account of other information, such as the fact that Armagh lost their goalie before the game. 

All that shows is that the tool isn't perfect.  It can't deal with qualitative information only the performance on the scoreboard and league table.  On the basis of that, I think its a damn fine piece of work.

[Jayop]

Honestly, all the talk of Armagh is worthwhile and I agree they probably should be a little higher. I think the fact there's 10 points between Tyrone and Donegal is a bigger shock given Donegal were most peoples pick from Ulster this year to put up a challenge. I think if it was Donegal Vs Kerry this weekend Donegal wouldn't be getting written off to the same extent we are.

[An Watcher]

Out of interest, what price were Tyrone heading that 2003 All-Ireland semi?  Underdogs no doubt but maybe not as big an underdog as this weekend?  I remember standing at half time finding it hard to believe we were so far ahead

[HokeyPokey]

Out of interest, what price were Tyrone heading that 2003 All-Ireland semi?  Underdogs no doubt but maybe not as big an underdog as this weekend?  I remember standing at half time finding it hard to believe we were so far ahead

Yes. Very surprising odds. Tyrone absolutely left the game behind them in 2019. Kerry have probably improved since, but so have Tyrone.

I suppose it's more of a reflection on the bets being placed than the actual odds.

[imtommygunn]

Have Tyrone improved? I think they've went back a good bit.

Tyrone in 03 were a top team whereas I think they're maybe not quite at that level here. That said I don't think Kerry are as good as 03 either.

[Jayop]

Ach sure if you listen to any GAA coverage on Newtalk, or on any of the main podcasts you'd be forgiven for thinking this game was played a few weeks ago and Kerry beat us up a stick. Was listening to Newstalk one of the Sundays before the Dublin Mayo game and for the entirity of the bit I listened to for about 20 minutes they never even mentioned Tyrone, it was just who was going to play Kerry in the final, would Mayo or Dublin have a better chance against them etc. Very dismissive. Like most I put Kerry as favourites, but not by such a margin that the game isn't worth even playing. I dont even think Kerry have a significantly better panel that Tyrone tbh.

[Jayop]

Have Tyrone improved? I think they've went back a good bit.

Tyrone in 03 were a top team whereas I think they're maybe not quite at that level here. That said I don't think Kerry are as good as 03 either.

I think he means improved since 2019 and ya I would say we have but it's hard to call with not as much football being played.

In 2019 Tyrone went into round 2 in the qualifiers and didn't impress much. Beat Cork and the Rossies in the super8 to get to the semi. Kerry only beat us by a goal that day on a day where they scored 5 frees to our 3. Was very little between the sides.

[MayoBuck]

From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

[hoynevalley]

From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

Tyrone over done the kicking ball into forwards. Worked early on until Kerry employed sweeper.

[CK_Redhand]

Out of interest, what price were Tyrone heading that 2003 All-Ireland semi?  Underdogs no doubt but maybe not as big an underdog as this weekend?  I remember standing at half time finding it hard to believe we were so far ahead

Yes. Very surprising odds. Tyrone absolutely left the game behind them in 2019. Kerry have probably improved since, but so have Tyrone.

I suppose it's more of a reflection on the bets being placed than the actual odds.

I've stated similar in a different thread a while ago but I think it's worth reiterating.

The bookies odds always reflect the money placed. They have a fixed spread and make the same amount of money regardless of the outcome of a market.  When the amount of money placed on an upcoming event changes the odds will change too. The "actual odds" is the public opinion of what the outcome will be. Its a wisdom of the masses sort of thing.

[Armagh18]

I always loved the Football ranking table that Laoiseman does on Boards.ie I dunno did he ever post it here too...

Anyway, here's the current top 10 with the 4 provincials and the other semi final making up the movement you see.

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14
2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30
3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00
4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43
5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00
6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84
7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43
8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

he hasn't done his predictions based on the model for this weekend which tend to be a lot more detailed than just "team a is above team b so they will win", I think it takes past results between the teams, current form etc also into account so it could be interested.

I was actually really shocked at how close Tyrone and Kerry are and how far Donegal are off the top 4.

Hmm Armagh should be on that list... Monaghan above Galway and close or ahead of Donegal. Armagh similar level to those 2. Kerry a whole pile further ahead of Tyrone... verry little between the big 3. Imo of course.

How/why should Armagh be on that list?

Because they were a brain fart away from beating Monaghan in the championship, they're definitely clear of Cork, Galway, Kildare and Meath. Drew with Donegal in the league and gave Tyrone a game after being crippled with injuries. For me there is the top 3 who are well clear with not an awful pile between any of them, then the 4 Ulster teams with not a whole pile between them (Armagh probably admittedly the weakest but not by much.) Then the rest.

[Jayop]

From what I remember, Tyrone were dominating that game in 2019. McShane and Donnelly destroying the Kerry full back line. Then a few Tyrone misses seem to sap their momentum and the game turned.

You could say that about so many games we've played against Kerry or Mayo in the championship for the last 10 years. So close and just wasteful. In old me I always blamed the ref for a lot of those losses but in all fairness we kicked the games away.

2019 Kerry 1 goal in it.
2016 Mayo 1 point in it
2015 Kerry 4 points in it