https://www.rte.ie/sport/football/2023/0320/1364205-nfl-permutations-plot-lines-aplenty-ahead-of-final-day/Sligo hold a two-point advantage over the other main promotion chasers, Leitrim, Wicklow and Laois, while Wexford, back on six points, have a miniscule chance.
A draw in Leitrim would be good enough for Tony McEntee’s Sligo team but defeat would leave them sweating. If they were to lose and Laois won in London, they’d likely miss out as their scoring difference is currently just two points better off than the O’Moore County while Leitrim’s would be guaranteed to be better.
Even if Wicklow win, along with Leitrim and Laois, to leave four teams on 10 points, Sligo would almost certainly miss out. In that scenario, Wicklow would need to be bettering Laois’ winning margin by 19 points. In theory, bettering it by 18 points could be enough, but highest total scores for comes next after scoring difference and Laois hold the advantage there currently.
A draw in Leitrim will be enough for Paul Kilcoyne and Sligo
Laois will do what they can, a winning margin of more than a point in London, and hope for a favour from Andy Moran’s Leitrim.
The fly in the ointment for them is Wicklow. If Sligo don’t lose and Laois win, and Wicklow defeat Waterford, it will be Oisín McConville’s side who go up as they have the head-to-head advantage over Laois.
If Sligo avoid defeat and Wicklow win, then it’s a Crossmaglen one-two as McEntee and McConville’s sides would populate the promotion places regardless of what Laois do in London.
Leitrim know that a win would all but guarantee their place in the league final. It would ensure that they finish above Sligo and even if Laois and Wicklow were to win, the latter would have to annihilate Waterford to overhaul them. Currently Leitrim’s scoring difference is 23 points better than Wicklow’s.
The fifth team that can go up is Wexford, but the Model County really would require a final day miracle.
They would need to defeat Carlow to move to eight points and they’d also require Sligo to beat Leitrim, Wicklow to lose in Waterford and Laois to lose in London.
That would leave Wexford, Wicklow, Leitrim and Laois all in a tie for second on eight points and it would come down to scoring difference. At just +2 currently, Wexford would also need some big winning and losing margins to come into play.
