The Horse racing thread

[Goats Do Shave]

declarations for national confirmed today goats

Cheers dude!

[Hardy]

Bcarrier has pretty much covered it above with neigh.co.uk's assessment of the stats. I'd interpret some of the stats and trends slightly differently to neigh and doing that, I come up with four horses that tick all the boxes in the stats and trends for previous winners: D'Argent, Cornish Sett, Comply Or Die and Philson Run. (There's also Ossmoses, which could possibly get into the race but, even if he does, seems to perform only in the muck, so I'm eliminating him). Philson Run is definitely in the race at this stage, as Ollie Magern has pulled out, but I'm eliminating him as a potential winner on the basis that I can't see how he can go three places better this year, carrying three lbs. more. And the stats are against him – a placed horse hasn't gone on to win the National at least as far back as 1990. He has to have a great chance of a place again, though. He's run well on both his outings and he was finishing well last year, though 7.2 on Betfair is not that attractive.

As the fella says above, there are so few qualifiers this year under the stats and trends for previous winners that horses that come near meeting all criteria must come into the picture. There are nine other horses that meet all criteria but one. Of these, six fail on the weight criterion, carrying 11st. or more. Of this six, I'd eliminate without question Knowhere, Mr Pointment and Simon, which all carry 11-7 or more. I don't think it can be done. There's a case to be made for Butler's Cabin, Vodka Bleu and Mckelvey, which are all just over the 11st. limit. I'm sticking with the stats, though, and eliminating them from the win consideration also, but it makes sense to consider them for the place, though only Vodka Bleu comes near to representing any real place value (11.5 on Betfair).

The other three horses failing on only one stat have failed to win a Class 1 race in their careers. They are Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome and Idle Talk. Cloudy Lane is a derisory price at 5/1, but I'd consider Mon Mome and Idle Talk for a place – both have been placed more than once in Class 1 company, though Mon Mome's place odds are a bit skinny – 9 on Betfair. Idle Talk is 16.

So I'm suggesting that only the following horses are likely to figure in the contest:
D'Argent
Cornish Sett
Comply Or Die
Philson Run
Butler's Cabin
Vodka Bleu
Mckelvey
Cloudy Lane
Mon Mome
Idle Talk
And Knowhere, Mr Pointment and Simon may also manage to hump their weight around and threaten for places.

I'm sticking with the stats and I've backed D'Argent, Cornish Sett and Comply Or Die for the win. Cornish Sett at 100/1 and 180 on Betfair is the outstanding value in the race for me and I'm also placing him at 27, though I'm a bit worried that the high price may reflect something I don't know about. The only other place value I see is Idle Talk at 16, Vodka Bleu at 11.5 and I can't ignore Philson Run, as he's the best bet in the race to get around – he doesn't fall and has only ever hit the deck when brought down – and will be going as well at the finish as at the start.

Finally, Ardaghey and Dunbrody Millar are the next two in line to get into the race if there are any defections. Both score on all statistics but one  - they have failed to win a Class 1 race, but both have been placed at that level. They are at very high place odds at present on Betfair, on the basis that as of now, they're not in the race – maybe worth a punt at 55 and 100 respectively. Indeed at 420 and 660 for the win, they're probably worth a Euro or two on a gamble that one or two may pull out.

I'm off to Spain now for a week. If one or more of the above come up, it might be four weeks.

[Mickey Linden]

Some great racing today lads. im going with a lucky 15 of Francheok, Binocular, Where Now and Inglis drever

[the Deel Rover]

thanks hardy will go with your tips again this year have a good break

[girt_giggler]

Quitest build up to a National meeting i can remember!

As for today -

Might go against Inglis Drever & back Kicks For Free instead, maybe e/w depends on the price later on. But could easily change my mind & go for Inglis Drever again, best horse in the race but has never won at this meeting!

Kauto is skinny enough, can see him going off at slightly bigger price than he currently is (4/6), people will have their doubts after Cheltenham, but for me should win with abit in hand. Depending on price, I might double him up with another Nicholls horse in the 2.55 Taunton LEADING ATTRACTION - another short price fav but is a shoe-in.

And finally will be backing Calestial Halo in the 3.10 & if the day goes according to plan will have a go Leslingtaylor in the 4.20!

[bennydorano]

I see Millenium Royal out in the first at Aintree, I had it EW Ante-post for Cheltenham but it didn't go (hopefully in preference for this).  Big ask to beat Inglis Drever, but bound to be in with a good shout - and interestingly Kasbah Bliss from the same stable doesn't go.

[boojangles]

I really cant see Kauto being bet today but Il wait cos it will probably open better than 4/6.There is nothing in the same class as Denman and altho Our Vic mite force the pace he's not in the same league as Kauto or Denman.
Binocular at 7/4 looks a good bet.

[T O Hare]

my yankee inglis drever, kauto star, binocular and franchoek, always enjoyed aintree more than cheltenham do due to fact that you have better chances of winning money!

[Homer]

Agree with you there on Kauto boojangles.

If this race had of been run before the Gold Cup Kauto would be 1/5 or so in this race. People are just assuming that he has lost his touch but in my opinion he just came up against and absolute machine in Denman. Sure Monets Garden pipped him before but Kauto was giving him a good stone and at level weights today I'm sure he'll win with some relative ease.

Going with a wee treble myself today

Inglis Drever @ 7/5
Kauto Star @ 4/5
Franchoek @ 9/4

[Doogie Browser]

Bad start for favourite backers - and my double - Inglis Drever third in the first.  BBC website showing first few races today.

[Homer]

Aye Thornton and King combine once again with a surprising win for Blazing Bailey.

Well thats my treble a faller at the first so might just stick to singles now.

[full back]

Thought Inglis was going to get back up
My treble shafted as well 

Kauto to get the money back...............

[Candyman]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_6540000/newsid_6548000/6548073.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&ms3=6&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2
Live Racing

Inglis Drever's Trainer says he'll never run again at Aintree!!!!

[girt_giggler]

handy watching it on bbc1, far better than listening to sporting life commentary!

Money coming for Kauto, now 4/7!

[Treasurer]

Our Vic wins in photo finish.