Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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Hardy

Quote from: TheOptimist on May 24, 2019, 11:23:04 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on May 24, 2019, 10:43:24 AM
He does and he will be the next Tory leader. Boris has been waiting for this moment and has all the right people around him (better people than what May has/had). Brexit is going to be delivered to the people one way or another now. I expect that us Irish are going to get screwed over big time.

I think he will wait yet. I think he doesn't want to be seen as the one creating the mess, he wants to be the one to be seen to be fixing it and there is plenty of messin to be done yet.

That's a good point. The next PM can only fail because all possible scenarios are failures of one kind or another.

- Brexit, even with the best possible deal will still leave the country worse off than it is (and with the immigration "problem still not solved - they will begin to notice that the brown people they hate are not generally coming from the EU).
- A no-deal Brexit will clearly be disastrous.
- A no Brexit will end the career of the PM who presides over it.

So that cunning self-promoter may well see his best opportunity occurring after the next PM has been immolated in the EU crucible like the last four Tory leaders, when he can present himself as the man who could have saved Britain and led them to the sunny uplands.

For what it's worth, this fella seems to me to be a voice of reason in the Tory party (which of course means he has no chance of being elected leader).

seafoid

Quote from: trileacman on May 24, 2019, 01:48:14 PM
Gove is the biggest **** in parliament and that's some achievement.

Hunt is the best man for the job but doesn't have the steel to whip these f**kers into line
Raab is just as bad
Then you have the Andreas
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

bennydorano

#7262
I think Boris will reverse the long trend of favourites not winning and win.

He will try to deliver a no-deal Brexit by circumventing Parliament - it is the only way it CAN be delivered in the current situation, you can be sure that that  is the manoeuvring going on in the background with all Brexit hardliners.

Gove is the most capable and slippiest of all imo.

Edit - just realised no matter what manoeuvres they try to pull they'll still have to pass legislation in some form so they can't totally circumvent HP.

Insane Bolt

Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.

6th sam

Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 27, 2019, 08:40:47 AM
Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.
Much like UKIP previously this is very much a protest vote by "little englanders " but like UKIP Previously and brexiteerism generally it will prove to have no substance.
Taking aside the fact that extremes are more likely to vote any way, and the NI vote to follow. Only 30% voted for brexit party, and probably very few of those that remained loyal to labour and conservative, are brexiteers, there are more votes for clear remainer parties. A second referendum is very likely to give a remain vote, and this is what remainers and true democrats should be pushing for.

armaghniac

The Brexit party have only a few more seats than UKIP. They did not get a majority of votes nor is there any mandate for a no deal, although they will claim one.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

GiveItToTheShooters

Quote from: 6th sam on May 27, 2019, 09:11:08 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 27, 2019, 08:40:47 AM
Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.
Much like UKIP previously this is very much a protest vote by "little englanders " but like UKIP Previously and brexiteerism generally it will prove to have no substance.
Taking aside the fact that extremes are more likely to vote any way, and the NI vote to follow. Only 30% voted for brexit party, and probably very few of those that remained loyal to labour and conservative, are brexiteers, there are more votes for clear remainer parties. A second referendum is very likely to give a remain vote, and this is what remainers and true democrats should be pushing for.

The irony

Maiden1

Quote from: 6th sam on May 27, 2019, 09:11:08 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 27, 2019, 08:40:47 AM
Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.
Much like UKIP previously this is very much a protest vote by "little englanders " but like UKIP Previously and brexiteerism generally it will prove to have no substance.
Taking aside the fact that extremes are more likely to vote any way, and the NI vote to follow. Only 30% voted for brexit party, and probably very few of those that remained loyal to labour and conservative, are brexiteers, there are more votes for clear remainer parties. A second referendum is very likely to give a remain vote, and this is what remainers and true democrats should be pushing for.

Brexit 604,715 (37.83%)
LD 361,563 (22.62%, +15.76%)
Green 202,460 (12.67%, +4.20%)
C 163,830 (10.25%, -18.12%)
Lab 139,490 (8.73%, -8.53%)
Change 58,274 (3.65%)
UKIP 54,676 (3.42%, -31.06%)

38% Brexit + 3.5% UKIP + 10 % Conservative does not equate to a clear remain vote.  If you want to take the Conservatives out of that list then also take Labour out of remain list, it still doesn't equate to a remain majority.
There are no proofs, only opinions.

Real Talk

There's still a slight majority of remain MP's in  Westminster

How it is all going to pan out is impossible to predict

Best and most capable person in the Con leadership contest is Stewart ... probably wont have the support to win it !!

playwiththewind1st

Quote from: Maiden1 on May 27, 2019, 10:42:20 AM
Quote from: 6th sam on May 27, 2019, 09:11:08 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 27, 2019, 08:40:47 AM
Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.
Much like UKIP previously this is very much a protest vote by "little englanders " but like UKIP Previously and brexiteerism generally it will prove to have no substance.
Taking aside the fact that extremes are more likely to vote any way, and the NI vote to follow. Only 30% voted for brexit party, and probably very few of those that remained loyal to labour and conservative, are brexiteers, there are more votes for clear remainer parties. A second referendum is very likely to give a remain vote, and this is what remainers and true democrats should be pushing for.

Brexit 604,715 (37.83%)
LD 361,563 (22.62%, +15.76%)
Green 202,460 (12.67%, +4.20%)
C 163,830 (10.25%, -18.12%)
Lab 139,490 (8.73%, -8.53%)
Change 58,274 (3.65%)
UKIP 54,676 (3.42%, -31.06%)

38% Brexit + 3.5% UKIP + 10 % Conservative does not equate to a clear remain vote.  If you want to take the Conservatives out of that list then also take Labour out of remain list, it still doesn't equate to a remain majority.

Think the votes cast figures are way out there. Less than 2,000,000 voted?

Maiden1

#7270
Quote from: playwiththewind1st on May 27, 2019, 11:24:38 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on May 27, 2019, 10:42:20 AM
Quote from: 6th sam on May 27, 2019, 09:11:08 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 27, 2019, 08:40:47 AM
Brexit party win bulk of seats in euro elections.....no surprise really. No deal Brexit is only show in town now, followed by GE. PMQ's will be comedy gold with Bo in hot seat.
Much like UKIP previously this is very much a protest vote by "little englanders " but like UKIP Previously and brexiteerism generally it will prove to have no substance.
Taking aside the fact that extremes are more likely to vote any way, and the NI vote to follow. Only 30% voted for brexit party, and probably very few of those that remained loyal to labour and conservative, are brexiteers, there are more votes for clear remainer parties. A second referendum is very likely to give a remain vote, and this is what remainers and true democrats should be pushing for.

Brexit 604,715 (37.83%)
LD 361,563 (22.62%, +15.76%)
Green 202,460 (12.67%, +4.20%)
C 163,830 (10.25%, -18.12%)
Lab 139,490 (8.73%, -8.53%)
Change 58,274 (3.65%)
UKIP 54,676 (3.42%, -31.06%)

38% Brexit + 3.5% UKIP + 10 % Conservative does not equate to a clear remain vote.  If you want to take the Conservatives out of that list then also take Labour out of remain list, it still doesn't equate to a remain majority.

Think the votes cast figures are way out there. Less than 2,000,000 voted?

Oops you must be right.  I must have copied that for 1 borough.

I just googled european elections uk votes by party (below)

Projected · Votes · In progress

Brexit 31.7%
Lib Dem 18.6%
Lab 14.1%
Green 11.1%
Con 8.7%
UKIP 3.6%
Change UK 2.8%

It's hard to say 35% definitely pro brexit and with probable Tory leader in waiting BOJO you'd have to expect most Conservative voters would vote for Brexit.  A majority of Labour voters would vote remain I would assume (but not all) and more than likely clear majority of Green voters but not all, you could be in favour of cutting green house emissions and want out of the EU.

It is all a bit of a &*£& up.  Like bluff asking someone outside for a fight when you don't think they would and then seeing them heading for the door.  You are like %^£& now what do I do, I don't want to follow them out but don't want to lose face by saying I was only messin.
There are no proofs, only opinions.

mouview

Quote from: trailer on May 24, 2019, 12:49:11 PM
A terrible PM. Good riddance. Could neither lead nor drive. Triggered A50 without any plan. No charm or negotiation skills.

The reality is though that whoever replaces her will face the exact same set of problems with the same Parliamentary arithmetic and an EU negotiating team that are refusing to reopen the withdrawal agreement. Deck chairs on the Titanic springs to mind.

We're so fucked.

She was wretched. Took a dreadful situation and made it catastrophic. Allowed the hard-right in her party to pull the strings. Unilaterally made one bad decision after another. Unquestionably the worst post-war PM.

imtommygunn

The worrying thing is that what's next might even be worse.

trailer

Disappointed with some of the coverage around BXP and their vote. They essentially are the old UKIP vote with some Tory leavers. It's a single issue party with no policies or indeed any real ideas on Brexit other than leave. 

johnnycool

Quote from: trailer on May 27, 2019, 04:16:54 PM
Disappointed with some of the coverage around BXP and their vote. They essentially are the old UKIP vote with some Tory leavers. It's a single issue party with no policies or indeed any real ideas on Brexit other than leave.

And the Irish Border, GFA are non issues according to Anne Widdicombe who I didn't know until this morning was a BXP elected MEP!!