The SDLP

[Chief]

Sure we all know Unionists (i.e. union to GB for now, England/Wales later) won't vote for a UI.
They wouldn't be Unionists then.
But they are not the majority any more.
The outcome will be decided by the "others".

The only "majority" which counts is that which emerges from a Referendum.

And whether the participants be designated "Unionist", "Nationalist" or "Other", every poll this century (and previously) indicates that a clear and decisive majority of the votes will be pro-Union.

I'd just wish we could find out for sure. I.e. call the border poll and see who wins, we talk about it enough. It's just democracy.

I beg to differ that the outcome is as you say it would be. I'd have confidence (just a personal feeling - nothing more scientific) that a UI would be won if a border poll was called now.

I suspect unionists have the same fear, otherwise I have a feeling they would be more relaxed about a poll.

[Evil Genius]

The bottom line is that the unionist vote is now in the 42-43% range...

The "Unionist vote" as measured by votes cast in elections for DUP/UUP/TUV etc.

But my whole point is that people do not necessarily vote along party lines in Referenda of this sort. Look eg at Scotland, where the SNP was by far the biggest party, but lost their Referendum. Or the Brexit vote, where party lines were completely ignored, in both GB and NI.

(Your 42-43% range - pretty much identical to the Nationalist vote btw - conveniently ignores the 15%-odd who vote "Other", but who would be strongly and demonstrably pro-Union if it came to a UI Referendum)

... and even a few of those are open to persuasion.

I agree we could be open to persuasion.

But Nationalism is going have to "write a new script" before that will happen.

For as long as the largest Nationalist Party sees eg Bobby Storey as a great man/true patriot/Republican royalty, while Unionists see him as a mass murderer/terrorist/gangster, then regardless of which view is valid, we are not going to take a chance on a future in the hands of people like that.

Sorry, but it simply ain't gonna happen.

[GiveItToTheShooters]

Has anyone from fg in recent times expressed any interest in a united Ireland.

Of course not, they're basically irish tories and west brits.

I wouldn't oversimplify things, Coveney has made his views clear and I think Helen McEntee likewise.
The difference would be that these people actually want a United Ireland, not just to spout off about it without doing anything to achieve it.

Let me get this straight, are you saying that Coveney and others in FG want a UI, and are doing something to achieve it?

yes and yes.

would you care to provide evidence for that statement?

Coveney has said several times that he wants to see a United Ireland. In order for there to be serious discussion on a United Ireland people have to believe the there is a feasible plan, that the economics work. They are not going to believe in a plan produced by Martina Anderson or Barry "Bread on the Head" McElduff or in an Ireland run by these people. Coveney's calm demeanor alongside the clowns from London going on about Brexit did more for a UI than the whole of NI Sinn Féin put together.

Said it but put it off as a priority, ie done nothing. Actions speak louder than words. FG have as much interest in a united ireland as the man on the moon, if anything they can do without it. Oh so because he's "calm" then that has done more for a UI? Catch yourself on

[GiveItToTheShooters]

EG posts are laughable, wouldn't know where to start if I was to address them individually. Think he knows a UI is inevitable and he's doing his utmost to convince himself, and others, otherwise.

[trueblue1234]

The bottom line is that the unionist vote is now in the 42-43% range...

The "Unionist vote" as measured by votes cast in elections for DUP/UUP/TUV etc.

But my whole point is that people do not necessarily vote along party lines in Referenda of this sort. Look eg at Scotland, where the SNP was by far the biggest party, but lost their Referendum. Or the Brexit vote, where party lines were completely ignored, in both GB and NI.

(Your 42-43% range - pretty much identical to the Nationalist vote btw - conveniently ignores the 15%-odd who vote "Other", but who would be strongly and demonstrably pro-Union if it came to a UI Referendum)

... and even a few of those are open to persuasion.

I agree we could be open to persuasion.

But Nationalism is going have to "write a new script" before that will happen.

For as long as the largest Nationalist Party sees eg Bobby Storey as a great man/true patriot/Republican royalty, while Unionists see him as a mass murderer/terrorist/gangster, then regardless of which view is valid, we are not going to take a chance on a future in the hands of people like that.

Sorry, but it simply ain't gonna happen.

The reality is that a new script is being written for the island with Brexit. And that could significantly impact the direction any fringe/ floating voters are going to vote for. While Covid has taken the focus away from Brexit for the time being it's impact hasn't decreased. With the DUP as the largest Unionist party, Unionists are never going to win (current)nationalists over to wanting to continue in the status quo. So the impact of an extraordinary event like Brexit can not be underestimated.

[general_lee]

But my whole point is that people do not necessarily vote along party lines in Referenda of this sort. Look eg at Scotland, where the SNP was by far the biggest party, but lost their Referendum. Or the Brexit vote, where party lines were completely ignored, in both GB and NI.

I agree there is a lot for those in the pro-unity camp to learn from the aforementioned. Perhaps a tacit campaign of lies and misinformation?

[imtommygunn]

The bottom line is that the unionist vote is now in the 42-43% range...

The "Unionist vote" as measured by votes cast in elections for DUP/UUP/TUV etc.

But my whole point is that people do not necessarily vote along party lines in Referenda of this sort. Look eg at Scotland, where the SNP was by far the biggest party, but lost their Referendum. Or the Brexit vote, where party lines were completely ignored, in both GB and NI.

(Your 42-43% range - pretty much identical to the Nationalist vote btw - conveniently ignores the 15%-odd who vote "Other", but who would be strongly and demonstrably pro-Union if it came to a UI Referendum)

... and even a few of those are open to persuasion.

I agree we could be open to persuasion.

But Nationalism is going have to "write a new script" before that will happen.

For as long as the largest Nationalist Party sees eg Bobby Storey as a great man/true patriot/Republican royalty, while Unionists see him as a mass murderer/terrorist/gangster, then regardless of which view is valid, we are not going to take a chance on a future in the hands of people like that.

Sorry, but it simply ain't gonna happen.

The reality is that a new script is being written for the island with Brexit. And that could significantly impact the direction any fringe/ floating voters are going to vote for. While Covid has taken the focus away from Brexit for the time being it's impact hasn't decreased. With the DUP as the largest Unionist party, Unionists are never going to win (current)nationalists over to wanting to continue in the status quo. So the impact of an extraordinary event like Brexit can not be underestimated.

The Boris Johnston factor is huge too. There has never in my mind been a more incompetent or "morally bankrupt" tory government and that is saying something. We would need to get away from them if possible IMO for the good of anyone and everyone. They could not give one hoot about this place. Johnston just makes that more apparent.

[johnnycool]

EG posts are laughable, wouldn't know where to start if I was to address them individually. Think he knows a UI is inevitable and he's doing his utmost to convince himself, and others, otherwise.

You can laugh all you like but he's not wrong.

The middle ground who don't vote for the out and out unionist parties (who no longer have a 50% majority) will decide on a UI or not.

One minute the DUP and their Brexit strategy push this group towards a UI till the shinners make yet another f**k up..

[An Watcher]

Sorry but it simply ain't gonna happen

OK then we'll just forget about it then. Can't stand such arrogance. Like it or not the prospect of a UI has progressed much quicker in the last 10/20 years than anyone ever expected. Even discussing the possibility of a vote on Irish Unity was unthinkable ten years ago. Where will we be in another ten years? I didn't think I'd ever see a united Ireland in my lifetime but I'm convinced more than ever now that I will.

Sorry but it is going to happen.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Sorry but it simply ain't gonna happen

OK then we'll just forget about it then. Can't stand such arrogance. Like it or not the prospect of a UI has progressed much quicker in the last 10/20 years than anyone ever expected. Even discussing the possibility of a vote on Irish Unity was unthinkable ten years ago. Where will we be in another ten years? I didn't think I'd ever see a united Ireland in my lifetime but I'm convinced more than ever now that I will.

Sorry but it is going to happen.

Ironic that it was Brexit that is driving the speed of change-not SF who of course were openly anti-EU until Brexit.

[johnnycool]

Sorry but it simply ain't gonna happen

OK then we'll just forget about it then. Can't stand such arrogance. Like it or not the prospect of a UI has progressed much quicker in the last 10/20 years than anyone ever expected. Even discussing the possibility of a vote on Irish Unity was unthinkable ten years ago. Where will we be in another ten years? I didn't think I'd ever see a united Ireland in my lifetime but I'm convinced more than ever now that I will.

Sorry but it is going to happen.

I think it will happen in my lifetime too, but the increasing nationalist demographics won't be enough and work will need to be done to persuade those from a protestant background that their needs will be served in a UI..

[imtommygunn]

So do I and I didn't until Brexit.

[Evil Genius]

EG, I enjoy reading your posts on this topic.
The socio-economic points you list as being a large part of why nationalists (and "other" I'd imagine) wouldn't vote for unity are valid but not insurmountable. I think the New Ireland Forum idea should be used to consider the realities and alternatives in a unification scenario (eg NICS pension scheme is run by NILGOSC and could continue as-is, like any other private investment fund). Let's find out how that could work. Prior to Brexit NI had successfully argued its case to get corp tax devolved, and developed its own business case to remove itself from the London teat, even if only in part. Take that a few steps further. A civic-led forum should explore the myths and realities.

Thank you.

As regards the socio-economic factor, yes, these could be surmounted as you say, but the task is harder than, say, 15 years ago than it is now, essentially for three reasons:
1. The Celtic Tiger is no longer roaring so loudly as previously, so Dublin must be less able/willing to take on the burden than before;
2. With the entry of so many new countries (plus the loss of the UK's contribution), the economic balance of the EU has changed, such that ROI is no longer a net financial beneficiary, nor is it likely to become one again any time soon;
3. Covid-19. No government anywhere in  the world is going to take on extra financial commitments it doesn't absolutely have to, including the one in Dublin. Whereas for better or worse, Westminster is stuck with NI and knows it.

Your point on how nationalists are happy that under the GFA they can claim their Irishness grossly misunderstands the impact of Brexit and DUP identity nonsense on this group. Brexit has/will force us to be treated in many respects in the same way as Finchley or Great Yarmouth or Sunderland. You seemingly fail to see the impact this has and will have on nationalists who are being  forced into something by Britain.

If you tell me that I've got it wrong as to the reasons why a section of the Nationalist population in NI either wouldn't vote in a Referendum, or would vote to stay, then fair enough: you doubtless understand their thinking better than me.

But it still doesn't detract from my central thesis that they would still either abstain to vote to remain.

As for Brexit, the vote was in 2016, and has had only a limited effect on Nationalist thinking over a UI, and none whatever on Unionist thinking.

Proof of this comes in the various opinion polls which have been conducted since eg this one from October 2017
(https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2017/10/26/news/opinion-poll-finds-one-third-in-favour-irish-unity-1171518/), or the BelTel one I quoted previously, from February 2020.

[Snapchap]

"Well they haven't gone away, you know", as someone famously said, even if the late Bobby Storey has:

You stay classy. 

[Franko]

EG, I enjoy reading your posts on this topic.
The socio-economic points you list as being a large part of why nationalists (and "other" I'd imagine) wouldn't vote for unity are valid but not insurmountable. I think the New Ireland Forum idea should be used to consider the realities and alternatives in a unification scenario (eg NICS pension scheme is run by NILGOSC and could continue as-is, like any other private investment fund). Let's find out how that could work. Prior to Brexit NI had successfully argued its case to get corp tax devolved, and developed its own business case to remove itself from the London teat, even if only in part. Take that a few steps further. A civic-led forum should explore the myths and realities.

Thank you.

As regards the socio-economic factor, yes, these could be surmounted as you say, but the task is harder than, say, 15 years ago than it is now, essentially for three reasons:
1. The Celtic Tiger is no longer roaring so loudly as previously, so Dublin must be less able/willing to take on the burden than before;
2. With the entry of so many new countries (plus the loss of the UK's contribution), the economic balance of the EU has changed, such that ROI is no longer a net financial beneficiary, nor is it likely to become one again any time soon;
3. Covid-19. No government anywhere in  the world is going to take on extra financial commitments it doesn't absolutely have to, including the one in Dublin. Whereas for better or worse, Westminster is stuck with NI and knows it.

Your point on how nationalists are happy that under the GFA they can claim their Irishness grossly misunderstands the impact of Brexit and DUP identity nonsense on this group. Brexit has/will force us to be treated in many respects in the same way as Finchley or Great Yarmouth or Sunderland. You seemingly fail to see the impact this has and will have on nationalists who are being  forced into something by Britain.

If you tell me that I've got it wrong as to the reasons why a section of the Nationalist population in NI either wouldn't vote in a Referendum, or would vote to stay, then fair enough: you doubtless understand their thinking better than me.

But it still doesn't detract from my central thesis that they would still either abstain to vote to remain.

As for Brexit, the vote was in 2016, and has had only a limited effect on Nationalist thinking over a UI, and none whatever on Unionist thinking.

Proof of this comes in the various opinion polls which have been conducted since eg this one from October 2017
(https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2017/10/26/news/opinion-poll-finds-one-third-in-favour-irish-unity-1171518/), or the BelTel one I quoted previously, from February 2020.

"I will concede that the reasons I gave for having this opinion are nonsense.  In no way does that lead me to consider changing said opinion"