The SDLP

[marty34]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!

A typical negative post - never, never, never.

You're not seliing the union to us.  Just no, no, no generic stuff.  The problem is partition has failed, failed everybody in Ireland.  It's been a mess. The 6 counties rely on London for all the handouts and jobs.  It's not as British as Finchley - Boris has sold you a pup, like Thatcher in '85.

Ireland is too small to justify 2 health care systems (NHS is a mess anyway), 2 education authorities etc. The duplication of everything is a joke.  It's the most pragmatic and sensible option.

[imtommygunn]

mouview sometimes I wonder would you get a warmer welcome from the south. There's a few on here I don't think you would anyway and I know a few in "the real world" where I don't think you would either. I would hope they are very much in the minority mind you.

[Chief]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

etc.

A good and reasoned post, but can you ever explain why you want to belong to an 'edifice' that is almost utterly ignorant and indifferent to your existence or fate, and one which is in itself pulling asunder through a bonkers-Brexit sense of exceptionalism and nationalism? When the DUP went 'confidence and supply' with the Tories in 2017, a lot of the British press scarcely knew who they were and called them 'Irish'. At least if you 'turn your head south' you'd be more assured of a warmer welcome.

The same reason we look south to a country that at best is indifferent to uniting with us.

It's tribal, ancient and emotional and it's a viewpoint that deserves the same respect as ours.

Patronising with forums, meetings etc, this side of a vote, is a waste of everyone's time.

Have the vote, win or lose, be sound about the result in either direction, and work with each other afterwards.

That's the only way forward.

[Rossfan]

Chief, only 1 individual can instigate this "vote" or " Border Poll" and only if it appears to him/her that there could be a majority in the 6 Cos in favour of reunification.
That individual is not a member of the Dáil/Irish Government or Stormont/Executive or any Political party in Ireland.
Neither is he/she a poster on GAA Board.
In the meantime it is up to those parties in favour of reunification to be looking at what kind of State and what kind of Constitutional arrangements might be appropriate.

[Chief]

Therefore, acknowledging all of the above, the order of proceeding should be:

- Win the border poll to deliver the new state - I.e. 50%+1
- Then through a (long) process of engagement, make the constitutional and economic arrangements that secure the future of the new state and which protect Britishness for unionism - incredibly important not to repeat the mistakes NI made after it's formation.
- Face down any terrorism that flares up as a reaction to the new state

The whole thing relies on a poll being called and won in the first instance though.

So, Chief, what strategy do you have to reach 50%+1?

First things first, have the vote so we can see what the true state of play is, instead  of relying on Belfast telegraph or Rte polls.

You can't address a problem until you look at it squarely and uncomfortably in the face, and understand truly the motivations of the demographics who would tip the scale in favour of a UI.

I'd imagine though the key to getting the vote across the line is the destruction of the easy pro-union arguments that will be trotted out:

For example

1) Constructing an Irish Health Service that rivals any NHS scaremongering that is done. At a time when governments can borrow at negative interest rates, lack of affordability is no excuse any more.
2) Proactively building into the existing 26 county constitution, a protected place for unionists and their culture - thereby removing concerns about their treatment in a new state.
3) Creating interest and momentum ahead of a vote by permitting northern speaking and voting rights in the Dail, and voting rights for Northern people in Irish presidential and senate elections.
4) Construction of a Unity Fund - to address concerns about the admin cost associated with unity (again the markets are paying governments to borrow at present so affordability is not an excuse).
5) Acknowledging that either elected reps from the 6 counties will have a guaranteed amount  of representation in a new UI parliament, or allow for a retention of devolution.
6) Acknowledge, as a matter of official policy -, without mandating what the outcome will be - that the new state will need new flags, anthems and symbols

Do/Guarantee all that and I'm sure the only thing that prevents 50%+1 are ancient loyalties - which we should never be arrogant enough to think we can persuade away, and which will manifest themselves in a border poll whenever it's called, and which no amount of forums or meetings will ever solve for.

[armaghniac]

The same reason we look south to a country that at best is indifferent to uniting with us.

It's tribal, ancient and emotional and it's a viewpoint that deserves the same respect as ours.

Patronising with forums, meetings etc, this side of a vote, is a waste of everyone's time.

Have the vote, win or lose, be sound about the result in either direction, and work with each other afterwards.

That's the only way forward.

This presumes that there are only two mutually exclusive groups and that the continuation of the present situation is only support by out and out planters like EG. In reality there is a spectrum of people, EamonnCa alluded to this, and there is a large and increasing bloc in the middle. These people reasonably want a proper case to be made if you want them to change their arrangements. Having a half baked vote would be a disaster and you'd then have to have forums, meetings, etc. afterwards anyway according to your post.

[trueblue1234]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!

Fair post EG. However there has been polls that have shown it's not quite as clear a majority as you state. The Lord Ashcroft poll had a stat on a border poll and it was 51% for leaving the UK and joining ROI. Brexit hasn't gone away and the impact of such will be significant over the next few years and may influence the voting pattern of your "garden center unionists" and definitely the "castle Catholics" if the impact is negative.
With regards to the bit in bold, the same is true for nationalists with the DUP (And the UK Government) being every bit as distasteful as SF and is therefore why the clamor for a UI will not die away. Which means whatever happens - status quo with NI or move towards a UI, the country/ies are destine for division internally for the foreseeable. And unfortunately there is nothing that can be done.

[Rossfan]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/public-consultation-on-format-of-any-future-border-poll-begins-1.4310688?mode=amp

[Franko]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!

The bit in bold is utter nonsense.

I've a great many friends who would be in the 'castle catholic' bracket so-to-speak.  The idiocy of Brexit and the lies/spin/corruption of the current UK govt have ensured that this demographic are voting for a UI in their droves.

And this 'massive' Westminster subvention?  This would be chump change to an EU who would only be too delighted to see the 6 counties flourishing whilst watching the rest of the old UK (England) stagger around oafishly, drunk on the spirit of Dunkirk.

[Chief]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

Now I accept that Nationalists have severe difficulty in understanding why our British identity is so important to us, fair enough. But surely even the most fervent Shinner cannot deny that it is, and that after nearly a century when it was under almost continuous threat from a variety of quarters, we're not simply going to give it up for a few kind words and promises from Dublin.

All of which explains why Unionist support for the Union remains as strong as ever, even from amongst "Garden Centre Unionists" who ordinarily have no interest in politics and don't vote in elections etc. As I show below, Unionist support for the Union is rock-solid, indeed never more so than when we saw the rise in support for Sinn Fein down south at the last election. I mean, if there was any chance whatever of us finding ourselves in a UI where SF formed even part of the government, then even the most moderate and reasonable Unionist would find himself clambering to the top of the nearest barricade to gaulder "Never! Never! Never!"

Which brings us next to the Nationalist population of NI. The long awaited demographic wave which was going to swamp the North has just about reached high tide without washing us all into a United Ireland (RC's appreciate the benefits of contraception and smaller families, too!). And even if it may still achieve the magic 50%+ 1 "majority" sometime reasonably soon, that's still nowhere near doing the trick, ironically for the self-same reason of Identity.

For the other unappreciated or misunderstood aspect of the GFA is that it finally satisfied the desire of Nationalists in NI to have their own (Irish) identity formally recognised: "Sure we're as Irish as anyone in the South".

And that identity having been recognised, given a vote in a Referendum, a high proportion of NI "Nationalists" will either not bother to vote, or will even vote to remain, for essentially socio-economic reasons: government jobs, NHS, pensions etc, above all the massive Westminster subsidy of the NI economy which Dublin either could not, or would not, take over.

All of which is consistently reflected in every opinion poll which has ever been conducted in NI this century, including eg this one from February:

Just 29% in Northern Ireland would vote for unity, major study reveals

A total of 99% of DUP and UUP voters wanted to remain in the UK compared to 92% of Sinn Fein and 81% of SDLP voters saying they would support Irish unity in a border poll.

Just 30% of Alliance voters backed a united Ireland compared to 70% supporting the Union.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/just-29-in-northern-ireland-would-vote-for-unity-major-study-reveals-38966196.html

So there you have it: all the Conferences, Study Groups, Manifestos and Five Year Plans emanating from Nationalism won't make a blind bit of difference to the Unionist population in NI, nor move us to consider giving a UI a go.

Which is not to say that we could never (never, never) be persuaded, but it's late and you're probably all bored beyond tears long ago, so I'll withhold my wisdom on that score for another day!

The bit in bold is utter nonsense.

I've a great many friends who would be in the 'castle catholic' bracket so-to-speak.  The idiocy of Brexit and the lies/spin/corruption of the current UK govt have ensured that this demographic are voting for a UI in their droves.

And this 'massive' Westminster subvention?  This would be chump change to an EU who would only be too delighted to see the 6 counties flourishing whilst the rest of the old UK staggers around oafishly, drunk on the spirit of Dunkirk.

The subvention is overstated.

To what extent nobody really knows -I'm guessing less than the UK govt says it is, but more than SF say it is.

It covers things like UK defence spending, public sector pensions etc that quite simply the north would no longer be paying for in a United Ireland to anywhere near the same extent.

[five points]

I've a great many friends who would be in the 'castle catholic' bracket so-to-speak.  The idiocy of Brexit and the lies/spin/corruption of the current UK govt have ensured that this demographic are voting for a UI in their droves.

And this 'massive' Westminster subvention?  This would be chump change to an EU who would only be too delighted to see the 6 counties flourishing whilst watching the rest of the old UK (England) stagger around oafishly, drunk on the spirit of Dunkirk.

The EU doesn't care two hoots about the six counties, apart possibly as a future net contributor to their budget. Look at the piss-poor deal that they foisted on the Irish govt this week. We're paying in per capita terms twice what the Germans are paying and 4 times what the French are paying. In that context, it's laughable to expect the EU ever to pay the north the equivalent of the Westminster subvention, although they might do so for a couple of years to get you hooked.

[93-DY-SAM]

I disagree - people need to decide they want to accept the north as part of the Irish nation as a matter of principle first, only then can there be a discussion on how to best make it work.

I read this post, indeed this whole thread damn near, and to paraphrase Robbie Burns:
"O, wad some Power the giftie gie youse, To see Themmuns as they see themsels!"

I mean, "People need to decide they want to accept the north [sic] as part of the Irish nation"...

When are Nationalists (ROI and NI) going to recognise that a UI is not within their gift to accept/deliver/negotiate/coerce or anything else?

The GFA made it crystal clear that the only way there will be a UI is if a majority of people in NI voting for it in a referendum. And effectively, that means the Unionist people voting for it, as follows.

Basically, as eg the Scottish Independence or Brexit votes demonstrated, such Referenda are not about politics, they are about Identity.

And as far as Unionists are concerned, No Union = No Unionism = No Unionists. Therefore in the absence of some overriding, irresistable reason, why would we want to erase our own British identity and vote ourselves out of existence?

etc.

A good and reasoned post, but can you ever explain why you want to belong to an 'edifice' that is almost utterly ignorant and indifferent to your existence or fate, and one which is in itself pulling asunder through a bonkers-Brexit sense of exceptionalism and nationalism? When the DUP went 'confidence and supply' with the Tories in 2017, a lot of the British press scarcely knew who they were and called them 'Irish'. At least if you 'turn your head south' you'd be more assured of a warmer welcome.

This is something I can never really understand as well. It always appears to be mostly a one way connection. Can someone, perhaps EG, explain this?

[Evil Genius]

Sure we all know Unionists (i.e. union to GB for now, England/Wales later) won't vote for a UI.
They wouldn't be Unionists then.
But they are not the majority any more.
The outcome will be decided by the "others".

The only "majority" which counts is that which emerges from a Referendum.

And whether the participants be designated "Unionist", "Nationalist" or "Other", every poll this century (and previously) indicates that a clear and decisive majority of the votes will be pro-Union.

[Rossfan]

Time will tell but firstly it has to appear to the SoS that reunification might get a majority.

[Evil Genius]

So EG essentially you are saying that there are no hopes of negotiation about a settlement path to  UI that would gain general acceptance among Unionists,  striking a sword to  Varadkar's "I have a UI dream".

No,  am not saying that.

Nor would it need "general" acceptance among Unionists either, merely a proportion of them - say 25%?

Rather my point is that the various strategies which have been employed by the different strands of Nationalism and Republicanism over the course of a century have all failed.

And as someone (Einstein?) once observed, a definition of insanity is "repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results."

So EG essentially you are saying that...         ... NI on its own is not a viable concern and is addicted to the substantial British Gov subsidy.

NI is hardly any less a "viable concern" than (post-oil) Scotland, Wales or large parts of England. Though all have thrived at various times in the past, and who knows, could be so again.

Likewise, who would have thought as recently as the late 1970's/early 1980's that the Republic, which had always been an economic basket case throughout its existence, would be the economic success story it is now?

in any case, we are where we are, and if NI were to join a UI in such circumstances, who is going to foot the bill?

Dublin? I think not.

The EU? Just ask eg the Greeks what they think of your chances there!

A dowry from Westminster? Good luck with that one.

Or maybe you're expecting a letter from America any day now?

That it comes down to a numbers game. Should 50% plus one vote for a UI in a referendum, then and only then would you (Unionists) accept the majority opinion and sit down to negotiate identity issues with a helping of a  piece of the EU Central Bank pie, OR refuse  to -  instead engage in riots, burn stuff and general mayhem.

And the numbers (votes) are massively in  our favour, with no sign of that changing in the foreseeable future.

Which was only the point injudiciously conceded by SF's favourite psephologist, Prof. Brendan O'Leary, at a SF fundraiser in New York a few years back. (Of course, SF tried to erase the record, but weren't able to get to an Irish Times reporter quickly enough to, er, "persuade" him that he'd misheard O'Leary, so it slipped out.)

Should 50% plus one vote for a UI in a referendum, then and only then would you (Unionists) accept the majority opinion and sit down to negotiate identity issues with a helping of a  piece of the EU Central Bank pie, OR refuse  to -  instead engage in riots, burn stuff and general mayhem.

As I keep saying, in the present or foreseeable political dispensation, there is no prospect of the pro-UI vote eventually creeping up to 50%+1.

I mean, look at the Nationalist vote in NI (SF, SDLP, minor parties etc). As O'Leary pointed out, it has plateaued at around 43% in every election this century, with no sign of it rising again. (And that's only votes cast in an election. As I've pointed out, you cannot simply transpose those votes to a Referendum, where different people vote for different reasons.)

The key to winning any such debate lies not in increasing the Nationalist vote (ain't happening), but in persuading a significant section of the pro-Union electorate to change their stance.

And while I accept that that might be possible in time and  without causing a violent backlash, it is never going to happen while there is a chance we may be entrusting our future to a government in Dublin in which SF has power and influence.

For the dogs on the streets know that SF in Dublin take their orders from SF in Belfast, who in turn take their orders from The Army Council.

And the Council? "Well they haven't gone away, you know", as someone famously said, even if the late Bobby Storey has: