The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Down Gael]

Income tax will go up and all the usual targets will get a hike. Talk of 7cents on a litre of fuel. Duty on fuel hasnt gone up in recent times.

[orangeman]

Income tax will go up and all the usual targets will get a hike. Talk of 7cents on a litre of fuel. Duty on fuel hasnt gone up in recent times.

Is it not expensive enough already ??

[Down Gael]

Fuel prices in the south are still considerably cheaper than the north. The southern gov hasnt increased duty on fuel in quite a while, so it will definitely get a hike this evening. Either way, life is about to get more expensive for anyone living in the south.

[passedit]

Passedit will you ever buy the house and quit the George Doom .

Last friday i'd have gladly taken a possible 30% instant loss on a property purchase as opposed to a very likely 100% loss on my cash. Gordon has bought a little time but he's now holding the same bluffers hand as Cowen. Eventually a bank will fail, they can't bail them all out. Likewise property in NI is going nowhere but down. Tis definitely like playing poker now, so no smiley face for a while yet.

[FermGael]

Last friday i'd have gladly taken a possible 30% instant loss on a property purchase as opposed to a very likely 100% loss on my cash. Gordon has bought a little time but he's now holding the same bluffers hand as Cowen. Eventually a bank will fail, they can't bail them all out. Likewise property in NI is going nowhere but down. Tis definitely like playing poker now, so no smiley face for a while yet.

Could not agree more. Alot of Bluffing going on.
Have been keeping an eye on a house in Belfast.  The Sold sign went up last week.
When into the estate agent to enquire what price it had be sold for.  Refused to give me the information.
Asked was it in or around the asking price.  Again nothing.
All these surveys form estate agents seem to show a reduction in asking price but i wonder what the real reduction in selling price actually is?

[bcarrier]

It was a reported condition of drawdown of Uk goverment funding that banks resume lending to home owners and small business at 2007 levels. The solution and the problem are starting to look alike. If they can get the property market to reverse its downward spiral through a combination of rate cuts and more relaxed lending then some of the so called toxic assets become a bit less toxic. Both Ireland and Uk need some quick property inflation. There will be some places including NI where property got so detached from wages that recovery will be slower but I am now hopeful that London will bounce back next year. There is no big supply overhang ...I got this from an outfit called london development research today ..

London residential construction starts have fallen over 70% between Quarter 1 and Quarter 3 2008:


§         This is good news for developers with schemes currently for sale as they are not facing additional competition from new starts

§         When sales rates pick up again supply will be greatly constrained lifting prices

§         To avoid disastrously low S106 affordable housing delivery, Government has to get the mortgage market moving again – we are all in this together


Sales positions in current schemes are better than you would imagine:


§         Schemes completed so far in 2008 are almost completely sold out; there is very little overhang of troubled stock

§         Schemes expected to complete in the six months to April 2009 are already 70% sold


So life isn't all doom and gloom. The information above is a tiny part of our latest quarterly review of new home construction, sales and pricing across London. The full research is published at www.ldronline.co.uk and is explained in one of the attached document.

[passedit]

It was a reported condition of drawdown of Uk goverment funding that banks resume lending to home owners and small business at 2007 levels. The solution and the problem are starting to look alike. If they can get the property market to reverse its downward spiral through a combination of rate cuts and more relaxed lending then some of the so called toxic assets become a bit less toxic. Both Ireland and Uk need some quick property inflation. There will be some places including NI where property got so detached from wages that recovery will be slower but I am now hopeful that London will bounce back next year. There is no big supply overhang ...I got this from an outfit called london development research today ..

London residential construction starts have fallen over 70% between Quarter 1 and Quarter 3 2008:


§         This is good news for developers with schemes currently for sale as they are not facing additional competition from new starts

§         When sales rates pick up again supply will be greatly constrained lifting prices

§         To avoid disastrously low S106 affordable housing delivery, Government has to get the mortgage market moving again – we are all in this together


Sales positions in current schemes are better than you would imagine:


§         Schemes completed so far in 2008 are almost completely sold out; there is very little overhang of troubled stock

§         Schemes expected to complete in the six months to April 2009 are already 70% sold


So life isn't all doom and gloom. The information above is a tiny part of our latest quarterly review of new home construction, sales and pricing across London. The full research is published at www.ldronline.co.uk and is explained in one of the attached document.

They rowed back on this very quick, banks are looking for large deposits (up to 40% on new builds), tightening lending criteria and not passing on last weeks rate cut.

Meanwhile the cat apears to have lain down again.

UK gilts rally as stocks falter, joblessness rises

LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - British gilts and interest rate futures climbed on Wednesday as equity markets tumbled amid fears the global economy may be sliding

into recession, highlighted by a rise in the UK jobless rate to an 8-year high.

By 1130 GMT, December long gilt futures were 49 ticks up at 110.05, more than double the gain on the equivalent Bund contract.

The FTSE-100 index of leading shares was trading 3.1 percent down at 4257 points.

'I think the concern is that at some point (turmoil) will really move from the financial sector to the real economy, now most economies are likely to go into recession, including the UK,' said Alessandro Tentori, bond strategist at BNP Paribas.

Official data showed Britain's unemployment rate rose more than expected to 5.7 percent in the three months to August from 5.2 percent in the previous 3-month period on the internationally-comparable ILO measure.

Markets are also eyeing U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due at 1230 GMT.

'If there's a big surprise here, there may be volatility,' said Tentori.

He added that UK debt market liquidity was still below normal but up slightly from the past two days, as investor nerves started to calm after the British government announced plans to underwrite share issuance by major high-street banks.

Short sterling contracts were down 5 ticks at 95.03 for December but up 4 ticks for March and 8 ticks for June.

Two-year gilt yields -- which move in the opposite direction to prices -- were down 5 basis points to 3.83 percent and 10-year yields were 4 basis points down at 4.71 percent.

* Dec gilt 110.05 (+0.49)

* Dec short sterling 95.03 (-0.05)

* Mar short sterling 95.94 (+0.04)

* 10-year yield 4.71 percent (-4 bps) --------------------- KEY MARKET DATA--------------------------- Long Gilt futures Gilt benchmark chain Short Stg futures Cash market quotes Deposit rates Sterling cross rates UK debt speedguide Econ. indicator polls --------------------KEY MARKET REPORTS-------------------------- Gilts Sterling Euro Debt Dollar U.S. Treasuries Debt reports -------------------- GILT STRIPS DATA -------------------------- Gilt strips data All gilt strips Gilt strips IO Gilt strips PO A list of all the strippable British gilts --------------------- FOR MORE NEWS ---------------------------- Top British news World news UK diary Press reviews New from Reuters Useful Speedguides Keywords: MARKETS BRITAIN GILTS tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com ak
15  October  2008

COPYRIGHT

[passedit]

Dow heads south as well




http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI%20INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC%20INDEXSP:.INX

[bcarrier]

Its only profit taking  .

[orangeman]

Monday's gains wiped out.

[orangeman]

Leading European stock markets plunged this evening on mounting fears of recession in Europe and the US. The London FTSE 100 shed over 7% to close at 4,080 points while in Paris the CAC 40 fell 6.8% to 3,381 points. The Frankfurt DAX gave up 6.5% to end at 4,862.

Dublin's ISEQ index also accelerated its losses this evening, closing 6.4% lower at 2,830 - down 193 points. Shares in the banks were mixed with Anglo Irish Bank closing 6% higher at €2.25 and AIB edging 0.3% up to end at €3.21. But shares in Bank of Ireland slumped 14% to €2.02 while Irish Life and Permanent closed at €3.84 - down almost 4%. Shares in Paddy Power were down 3.4% at €11.30 after an increase in betting tax was announced by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan yesterday.

[muppet]

Rumours of one Irish bank being pressurised to take over another. The share prices will give a clue as which one is rumoured to be the one to take on the burden.

[PadraicHenryPearse]

there will definately be a few mergers and will probably see a Spanish Bank make a move for one of the Irish guys aswell. My short-term Investment is over now i fear- i'm in for the long haul to see any return on my investment.

[Lecale2]

london development research today ..

And they wouldn't have a vested interest? Can someone explain to me why it is the Government's job to help people buy houses they can't afford?

Stock Markets tumbling again. Japan down 11% over night and London opened 5% down.

The good news is that oil is down to $73 a barrel. 

[passedit]

Global shares carry on tumbling
A young man passes an electric market board in Tokyo, 16 October
Investors fear that efforts to halt the banking crisis won't prevent recession

European shares have opened sharply lower following dramatic falls in Asia that saw Tokyo's Nikkei index fall 11%.

Global falls have largely wiped out the gains earlier in the week, as fears of recession cancelled out any optimism from the banking rescue package.

London's FTSE 100 opened 5% lower while the Cac 40 in Paris was down 6%.

On Wednesday, New York's Dow Jones index saw its worst one-day percentage fall on Wednesday since October 1987, closing almost 8% down.

Shares in Hong Kong shed 7.6%. Australian, South Korea and Indian indexes all fell by at least 4%.

The prospect of a protracted economic downturn also sent crude oil prices lower to hit a 13-month low just above $73 a barrel.

Stocks had risen earlier in the week after governments acted to aid banks, but these gains have mostly been lost.

Investors fear that efforts to stem the banking crisis will not be enough to prevent a recession.

   
FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME

More from Today programme

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned that the US economy now faced a "significant threat" from the credit crisis.

'Real economy' impact

Signs of optimism seen earlier this week when markets recovered some of the lost ground have been all but wiped out.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index closed 11.4% lower, or 1,089.02 points, at 8,458.45. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 7.6% to 14,785.60 points.

Australia's main share index ended down 6.7% and India's main index was down 4%.

   
Although there's a ton of cash or liquidity sloshing through the system, banks want to hoard it rather than lend it
Robert Peston, BBC business editor

Robert Peston's blog in full

"There's a certain degree of panic selling in Tokyo but the sentiment's different from last week," Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities, was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

"Last week people were panicking over the financial system, nobody really knew what would happen. But now it's the real economy."

Yutaka Miura, senior strategist at Shinko Securities Co Ltd, said investors were particularly unnerved by a 1.2% fall in the value of US retail sales between August and September.

"It really confirmed a severe slowdown in the US economy," he told the Associated Press news agency.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that despite recent actions by central banks to help the banking sector, banks were still not lending to each other at anything like a normal rate of interest relative to official rates.

This was worrying as it meant banks were unlikely to lend money at better rates to consumers and businesses.

No quick turnaround

Many investors are now convinced that the US economy, if not already in a recession, is moving towards one.

A Federal Reserve report showed economic activity had weakened across the country.

In a speech in New York, Mr Bernanke said the US had avoided making the mistakes that helped plunge the country into the 1930s Great Depression.

He pledged that the Fed would continue to fight the credit crisis. But he warned it would take time for the country's economic health to mend.

"The turmoil in financial markets and the funding pressures on financial firms pose a significant threat to economic growth," he said.

"The last decade has shown that bursting bubbles can be an extraordinarily dangerous and costly phenomenon for the US economy."

The leaders of the G8 major industrialised nations agreed on Wednesday to hold a summit with other states to discuss global financial reform.

In Brussels, EU leaders rallied behind a plan to aid the bloc's banking sector.