A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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JohnDenver

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on February 19, 2024, 12:11:29 PMIts the not knowing for that age bracket which doesn't surprise me, they probably feel that it will impact on them  later in life, pensions and the like.

Its about the details, if you do a poll, knowing that the concerns you have won't affect your heath and retirement then the figures will change, hopefully.

Not confident that I'll see a UI. Very slow moving

Where does your OH sit on the issue? Personal question obviously so no need to answer if it's a touchy subject, just that you've mentioned before about difference background.

Agree regarding that age group who are looking for certainties with retirement / health care getting closer. I think it's probably more of an issue with the middle ground all the same.

Snapchap

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on February 19, 2024, 11:29:43 AMDisappointed with those figures to be honest. Lucid talk is pretty accurate unlike the NILT survey or the Pete Shirlow bog roll survey from Liverpool university. A few yrs ago lucid talk and lord Ashcroft had UI polling well into the 40's and actually even ahead of UK in some polls. The breakdown shows UI more popular in the under 45's but it's the over 55's were all the damage is done with only 28% pro UI. I would say sure just a bit more of a wait but the worrying thing is I'm not far off that 55 age bracket myself ;D. With the don't knows out it's 56 44 so still pretty tight and hard to call on the day. Interesting to see the green voters are overwhelmingly nationalist whereas alliance is a bit more of a mixed bag

I'm enthused by them. Here's why:

1. 39% would vote for unity tomorrow, without a plan. Economically speaking, unity is a no-brainer, and the more people cop on to that, then as a plan/proposal comes tgether, that figure can only go one way.

2. The poll also showed a healthy majority (52% to 44%) support a united Ireland in the future.

3. A majority of people under 45 (46% to 42%) support reunification. This chimes with recent voting intention polling, also by LucidTalk, which found that the only age category where the DUP outpolled SF was in the over 55 bracket. As Sam McBride put it at the time, "more of the voters who die are unionist, and more of the voters who join the electoral register are nationalist".

4. Undecided voters will be kingmakers and if we look at the preferences of people who vote for parties which are undecided/on the fence about unity, the poll shows that a fairly whopping 71% of Alliance voters and 72% of Green voters want to see a United Ireland in the future.

5. I'm rehashing what I posted a few months ago but take a look at the trends. 50 years ago, nationalism held 18% of council council seats, now it's 40% (and could have been north of that figure, had SF run more candidates). By contrast, it's only 9 years since unionism held 51% of council seats, and today that figure has dropped to 40%. An 11% drop in the Unionist vote in just nine years. Given that demographic trends clearly indicate a strong likelihood that the electoral lead nationalism now has over unionism is likely to not only continue, but to widen at an accelerated pace, then what will those %'s be in a further 9 years? Then try thinking about how they'll look in 10 years, 20 years...30 years?


6. LucidTalk, I think most would agree, has had the best track record of polling accuracy, so their figures are generally worth paying attention to. Someone posted to twitter a breakdown of LucidTalk polls on unity since 2016 (a 'poll of polls'). It shows that since 2016, support for remaining in the UK has dropped from 62% to 49% (-13%) while support for Irish unity has risen from 25% to 39% (+14%). That's a remarkable swing in just 8 years. What might it be like in another 8, or 10 or 20 years, given the ageing/declining protetant/unionist population and the radidy growing and younger Catholic/nationalist population?

RedHand88

The poll is very encouraging when you look past the clickbait headline that no doubt will be plastered over every rag today - "Majority would vote to stay in the UK" or whatever.

As snapchap pointed out, the demographic breakdown is very, VERY encouraging, as is the breakdown of Alliance/Green centrist voters.
The poll shows that support for the union continues to fall, whilst support for unity increases.
I honestly don't think there will ever be a Unionist FM again. By the time Jim Allister retires/moves on and TUV votes begin to migrate back to the DUP it will be too late.

Milltown Row2

Quote from: JohnDenver on February 19, 2024, 12:14:52 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on February 19, 2024, 12:11:29 PMIts the not knowing for that age bracket which doesn't surprise me, they probably feel that it will impact on them  later in life, pensions and the like.

Its about the details, if you do a poll, knowing that the concerns you have won't affect your heath and retirement then the figures will change, hopefully.

Not confident that I'll see a UI. Very slow moving

Where does your OH sit on the issue? Personal question obviously so no need to answer if it's a touchy subject, just that you've mentioned before about difference background.

Agree regarding that age group who are looking for certainties with retirement / health care getting closer. I think it's probably more of an issue with the middle ground all the same.

She's never been a unionist nor her immediate family had any strong views on the union.

We certainly clashed over things at the start but she's not stupid, if there is a better way then she'll opt for that, if the staus quo remains, and has no effect on it then she wouldn't be bothered either way. I do believe given the options with some detail or meat on the bones, and providing it does not effect her pension, or 'perceived' health benefits she'd vote. My kids would vote straight away.

From a nationalist view I've always wanted a UI. If it never happens in my lifetime it wont change who I am or what I believe in. I see myself as an Irish man and the border is just something that's been there.
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

Applesisapples

As an older person, SF voter and nationalist I would not rush to vote yes without seeing how my quality of life  and standard of living would be impacted. I would be in the yes camp if....

weareros

Some telling stats on that poll.

Staying in the Uk now and in the future is at 44% and that number will likely only go down. Direction of travel is clear unless the younger change as they get older...

However 55-64 is 64% to 28% in favour of Union. Is the disparity that great in that age group or would it indicate as they near retirement, good few nationalists opt for the status quo in the absence of a plan from Dublin/clarity over pensions they've paid into.

Snapchap

Quote from: weareros on February 19, 2024, 02:02:24 PMHowever 55-64 is 64% to 28% in favour of Union. Is the disparity that great in that age group or would it indicate as they near retirement, good few nationalists opt for the status quo in the absence of a plan from Dublin/clarity over pensions they've paid into.

I don't think there's too much analysis required on that one. Support for the union is strongest in that age category because that's the age categry with the biggest majority of unionists. The protestant/unionist population is ageing one.

StephenC

While the demographic trend is stark, remember that people get more conservative as they get older. Those 100% yes's today may be more WIIFM as they get older.

armaghniac

Quote from: StephenC on February 19, 2024, 02:24:30 PMWhile the demographic trend is stark, remember that people get more conservative as they get older. Those 100% yes's today may be more WIIFM as they get older.

They will become more realistic, and will read the small print on taxes, health etc in relation to the UI proposal, but if these things have been worked out then they will still support change.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

weareros

Quote from: Snapchap on February 19, 2024, 02:13:57 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 19, 2024, 02:02:24 PMHowever 55-64 is 64% to 28% in favour of Union. Is the disparity that great in that age group or would it indicate as they near retirement, good few nationalists opt for the status quo in the absence of a plan from Dublin/clarity over pensions they've paid into.

I don't think there's too much analysis required on that one. Support for the union is strongest in that age category because that's the age categry with the biggest majority of unionists. The protestant/unionist population is ageing one.

Union goes down to 48% again on 65+. Reality must set in. Crumbling NHS and pension higher in Republic. But agree the Union is depending on a greying vote as one can see at any Jim Allister Orange Hall rant.

Main Street

That poll posed an interesting question,
do you want to remain or do you want to leave?
  as most know by now that 'leave' is a dirty word, full of unknowns
and that 'stay' is by far the safe & sound social/economic option :) 

Nevertheless, I'd regard the poll as more positive for a UI in the future than I would've thought.

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

armaghniac

If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM