Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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LCohen

Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
The Tories are all over the place.
hard to argue with that

Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
The ERG head the balls are leading a revolt agains the Coronovirus Bill.
The nutjobs are rebelling on the wrong issue but still likely to have little impact on the outcome. This is an issue where a lot of the opposition will vote with the government
Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
theresay May is leading a revolt against the Internal Markets Bill.
Theresa May's leadership qualities are to be taken lightly
Not too sure how many Tory numbers she will muster. More the the last day but unlikely to the 45-50 she would need

Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
Backbenchers hate Cummings.
You give them too much credit

Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
Many MPs consider Johnson to be incompetent.
Surely they all KNOW he is incompetent

Quote from: seafoid on September 27, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
And they can't afford no deal.
Cabinet know that. Not sure ERG screwballs do.

armaghniac

Quote from: LCohen on September 27, 2020, 08:42:53 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 26, 2020, 11:04:49 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 26, 2020, 09:33:55 PM
That actually really sounds like an answer a deluded Brexiteer would give when faced with a comparable situation, without any thought given to the actual praciticalities of genuinely having to get muliplte industries organised (physically & bureaucratically), against the clock, during a pandemic.

Has the ROI significantly enhanced any port routes for exporting goods directly to mainland Europe? when the UK is your biggest market it's also another related headache.

Bennydorano, are you really a Brexiteer in Lincolnshire after all? If not are you impervious to actual news in the last 4 years? Britain is not the biggest market for the ROI, it took under 7% of exports in recent months. it is important for some sectors and it does provide many imports, but to hear people like you talking you would think it was the 1950s. NI takes almost 2%, but you don't need a boat to go there. I am not saying that everything is in place on the shipping front, but there have been new routes from Ireland to Spain, France and Belgium using some very large ships, like the Celine. And of course the land bridge will be disrupted to the extent there are problems in Britain, but it still exists.

There is a problem, but not a crisis for most industries and there will be mitigations for those.

You are over simplifying the issue.

Exports to UK are an issue. It's not just the volume/value of the exports but how many jobs are related to those exports and what alternative jobs exist for those people and resources. What is the alternative for say Irish beef? Does it go the way of the smaller Irish mushroom sector?

Secondly there is the critical landbridge issue. Adequate progress on alternative sea crossing capacity isn't greatly in evidence and much more importantly creating a route to make it physically possible to export the goods via an alternative route is only half the problem. The reason the landbridge is used is because it is cheaper and more efficient than alternatives. Exports markets have been won based on that competitiveness. You don't lose that with zero impact

I don't deny that there are problems for particular sectors and many of these are significant employers. Likewise the transport thing makes business harder. However, in addition to lose of competitiveness there are business opportunities for Irish business to supply products currently supplied from Britain. It isn't ideal but these positives mean that the overall damage will not be too great, although there may be a bumpy ride in between.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM


bennydorano

Called Politics, each side briefs their version of events, truth as ever likely somewhere in the middle.

Rossfan

You seem to usually buy the Brit spin.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

bennydorano

Why buy the EU line everytime? The EU are well used to these type of FTA negotiations, moreso than the UK, they're well practised in political manouvering.

Also, I was an ardent remain supporter, but now the UK has left (& are leaving hard) it makes total sense for them to play hardball in negotiations, whether they're capable of pulling it off is another question.

armaghniac

Quote from: bennydorano on September 28, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
Why buy the EU line everytime? The EU are well used to these type of FTA negotiations, moreso than the UK, they're well practised in political manouvering.

Also, I was an ardent remain supporter, but now the UK has left (& are leaving hard) it makes total sense for them to play hardball in negotiations, whether they're capable of pulling it off is another question.

Well some of their key personnel are experts in "pulling it off".
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

Quote from: bennydorano on September 28, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
Why buy the EU line everytime? The EU are well used to these type of FTA negotiations, moreso than the UK, they're well practised in political manouvering.


If a EU official says today in Monday you can take it it's Monday.
On the other hand if a Brit politician (and extra especially their current PM and Governnent) says it's Monday....first thing to do us check the calendar.
And if they're feeding "good news" to their media you can definitely take with a large bucket of salt.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

seafoid

https://ft.com/content/1d34c6eb-bd2d-4968-9d98-a231fb07f6b6... Sefcovic outlined that the EU could legally pursue the UK even before the internal market bill is adopted for breach of its good faith obligations under the treaty. 


https://mobile.twitter.com/elliereeves/status/1309079579383025667
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

bennydorano

Quote from: Fionntamhnach on September 28, 2020, 09:14:36 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 28, 2020, 03:28:16 PM
Called Politics, each side briefs their version of events, truth as ever likely somewhere in the middle.

That's false equivalence.

If I say 2+2=4, yet someone else says 2+2=7, does that mean the real answer lies somewhere between 4.001 and 6.999?

It may not scale directly into political discourse, but truth is not an objective but the objective.

You do realise the counterpoints in this discussion are, negotiations are progressing ok V negotiations are not progressing so well. I dont think either claim is outlandish tbh.


johnnycool

From Tony ConnellyRTE;

"BREAKING: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will make a statement on Brexit at 11hr CET. @rtenews understands that legal action against the United Kingdom is imminent and that a draft "letter of formal notice" has been finalised, triggering legal action"

Shits got real for Boris and his crew of charlatans

Farrandeelin

Quote from: johnnycool on October 01, 2020, 09:32:01 AM
From Tony ConnellyRTE;

"BREAKING: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will make a statement on Brexit at 11hr CET. @rtenews understands that legal action against the United Kingdom is imminent and that a draft "letter of formal notice" has been finalised, triggering legal action"

Shits got real for Boris and his crew of charlatans


Saw that. Cue the Brexiteer stance of blaming the big bad EU for everything under the sun.

No deal looking more unlikely though.
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

bennydorano

Well that was short & sweet, perfunctory & designed not to torpedo the chances of a deal.