What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[smelmoth]

I don't think money will change many Unionist minds. The RoI was an economic basket case for much of it's existence. So much so that despite a high birthrate the population actually declined because so many people left.
And yet never in that time was there a movement to rejoin the UK even though that may have been a better option economically.

I specifically said that economics could help sell NI to RoI voters. And it's a could. A lot a flesh will be needed on those particular bones

[Eire90]

is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland  or even right wing types in the south

[smelmoth]

is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland  or even right wing types in the south

Yes and Yes.

But others also. If you were not middle class or right wing why would you vote to take on an economic and security nightmare. A lot of work will need to be done to address those 2 points. And real work that stands up to scrutiny. Not some report that says that everything goes well and nothing goes wrong then everything will probably be ok.

[burdizzo]

is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland  or even right wing types in the south

What do you mean by "right-wing"? I would say that conservative nationalist types (if that's what you mean) would and should certainly vote for a united Ireland, not least to get a sizeable conservative nationalist (aka unionist) influence into Irish politics.

[armaghniac]

I don't think money will change many Unionist minds. The RoI was an economic basket case for much of it's existence. So much so that despite a high birthrate the population actually declined because so many people left.
And yet never in that time was there a movement to rejoin the UK even though that may have been a better option economically.

This is not quite the same, the population declined even faster for the previous 80 years of being in the UK.

But the point is relevant, prosperity is helpful. The problem is that the largest nationalist party has no plan to increase prosperity, their only interest is in taxing someone else to provide more spending. Such a party cannot persuade people that they will be better off.

On another point, the headlines today are that life expectancy in the ROI is the highest in the EU. This is caused by Covid, since Ireland suffered less from that than other places. However, a gap has opened with NI and the UK generally, yet everyone will tell you that the loss of the NHS is a major issue in unification!

[illdecide]

When you actually break it down it's only two generations (your Grandad's) when the Island was all one and its been like that from time began. A lot of you forget this based on your questions especially the first two...WTF. It feels like you gave us up for adoption but the Foster parents no longer want us so we're kinda homeless (like when you know your parents don't love you anymore for being a rough teenager...lol)

[weareros]

Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Many Irish seem to think the Brits will grant a border poll once they are certain a UI will be won. But the current shower would not give the steam of their piss. They would see it as a loss to the EU. They will dig in.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes, but per above.
Are SF competent ? Like any Irish party, some very talented and some very mediocre.
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? It will but it will still be pro Union.
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently - important for game there's strong hurling power in Ulster.

[marty34]

The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.

Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.

10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.

[Milltown Row2]

The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.

Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.

10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.

Would being religious even be a thing now? While I'm catholic I haven't nor can I see me ever practicing again, I can't see religion showing signs of a UI like you have said..

[JPGJOHNNYG]

The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.

Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.

10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.

Would being religious even be a thing now? While I'm catholic I haven't nor can I see me ever practicing again, I can't see religion showing signs of a UI like you have said..

Not so much the religion question it will be the community background question that is the headline figure as that Hoover's up all the atheists nicely into green and orange sections. As for the nationality question that's just a mess as the Northern Irish will be claimed by all. I'm convinced it was brought in to soften the blow of falling figures for themmuns as they can say Northern Irish is British and oh look only 25% say they are actually Irish.

[smelmoth]

When you actually break it down it's only two generations (your Grandad's) when the Island was all one and its been like that from time began. A lot of you forget this based on your questions especially the first two...WTF. It feels like you gave us up for adoption but the Foster parents no longer want us so we're kinda homeless (like when you know your parents don't love you anymore for being a rough teenager...lol)

I think this misses several points.

It's pure fiction to portray Ireland as being "one" since time began up to partition. History will take the wind out of the sails of that argument and if you go back further geology will hole it well and truly below the water line.

But in the here and now there are massive issues with Irish identity (not to say that there not even bigger issues with British identity). Lots of people living in Ireland have an Irish identity that does not encompass NI. They have at best no interest in NI and very possibly a dislike for us nordies. I have witnessed (and occasionally received) an increasing amount of abuse based on an accent or number plate at GAA matches in recent years. Then there is the southern approach to unionists and to adopting a weird little state with power sharing and a bucket load of problems. Many of these problems will spike when this whole thing comes up seriously for debate.

Selling that Ireland to the Irish could be harder than selling snow to the Inuits.

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/364e7e50-e1a5-4d88-bce4-2604536a2f7b
Six years on from a Brexit which it voted decisively against, Northern Ireland remains trapped in its consequences, let down by both the UK government and the strategic blunders of its largest party, the Democratic Unionists.  


Sinn Féin is leading in polls in Ireland too: the thought of it in power on both sides of the border alarms unionists. Showing it can lead a stable, pragmatic executive in the north would boost its standing in the Republic.  


The DUP is threatening a boycott until the protocol is scrapped, a particularly dreadful stance for Northern Irish democracy if Sinn Féin were to win. Intransigence is almost its last electoral gambit after a litany of political errors which included supporting Brexit (while opposing every model of how it might work) 

 
The intricate Stormont structures, once essential for peace, are now loading the system against moderates and limiting space for compromise. The power to collapse the executive is being abused.  

Tories know that a modern, less sectarian Northern Ireland is the best way to safeguard the Union, but the structures work against it. If both Sinn Féin and the DUP do lose vote share, the need to address a system unduly weighted in their favour becomes more pressing.  

[seafoid]

I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.

[smelmoth]

I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.

It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.

I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.

On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.

[seafoid]

I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.

It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.

I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.

On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.

Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare  rather than invest.

NI underperforms.