Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[Kidder81]

Kuenssberg will interview Johnson instead of Neil on Friday

https://twitter.com/BBCPoIiticsUK/status/1199765871893368833

Spoof account that's not true/hasn't officially been announced yet!!

Some of you lads would need to take a wee rest, especially you Seafoid

[trailer]

Labour looked fucked according to latest yougov poll.
YouGov / Times MRP

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

[Kidder81]

Labour looked fucked according to latest yougov poll.
YouGov / Times MRP

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

This model is the only one that predicted the hung parliament in 2017 so we will see

[omaghjoe]

Labour looked fucked according to latest yougov poll.
YouGov / Times MRP

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

This model is the only one that predicted the hung parliament in 2017 so we will see

I saw in one of these seat predictor polls that Alliance would have 3 seats, in reality they would be very lucky to get any which lead me to think that these things are BS

The other problem with using previous performance is that the variables change everytime, so a formula might have been good (or lucky) in 17 might be way of this time around

[Eamonnca1]

Betting odds:

Tory overall majority: 4/9
No overall majority: 5/2
Labour majority: 25/1

Damned if I know how Johnson's doing it, but he seems to be winning. I'm getting the same sinking feeling I got in 2016 when it started to look like Trump had a chance.

Maybe the "antisemitism" muck is sticking.

[under the bar]

Betting odds:

Tory overall majority: 4/9
No overall majority: 5/2
Labour majority: 25/1

Damned if I know how Johnson's doing it, but he seems to be winning. I'm getting the same sinking feeling I got in 2016 when it started to look like Trump had a chance.

Maybe the "antisemitism" muck is sticking.

You can rule Labour out as irrelevant. Any opposition that couldn't win an election through all the years of austerity and Brexit fuckwittery clearly don't deserve to lead.

At this stage I'd much prefer a clear Johnston majority than a hung parliament and DUP with a voting influence.  As much a **** as he is he couldn't give a f**k about Ireland or the Northern Union. If hard Brexit is his aim he's more likely to shaft the latter.

[oneflewoverthecuckoonest]

Dear Seafoid,

I would make an educated guess, you voted against Brexit and lost. You were for Clinton and hated the idea of Trump winning. Now you are going to get the treble up, as you cannot see the Tories are going to swot away Labour, you are grasping at straws thinking a miracle will occur in the next fortnight.
Also Finucane will not beat Dodds, too much riding on it for the latter....can you call one election correctly?.

Brace yourself for Brexit, and as I have written previously on this thread, it accelerates the prospect of a border poll and then the possibility of a United Ireland.


One other item that Left/labour fans fail to answer, if the Labour party were discriminating against its Islamic members in the manner in which it is systematically doing so against the Jewish brethren, I am certain all the leftist/socialist/Marxists would be up in arms.....why all the denial, ignore the elephant in the room stuff?. the policy is an underhand one of banish the jews, welcome with open arms the Muslims, now seen as the safest voting block for the Labour.   
What is puzzling is that Labour advocates all this snowflake social policy of pro choice abortion, same sex marriage, whatever you want gender wise and liberal education.....yet their Islamic friends are totally against these policies, look at what is happening in education in Birmingham for example, when the policy/religion clash occurs.

when they build up sufficient numbers, the muslims will abandon Labour and set up their own fundamentalist party in Britain and then Labour will be as relevant as the Labour party in the south of Ireland.

[gallsman]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

[seafoid]

Cummings says the result is too close to call but Yougov is very confident

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/

A hung Parliament remains "a very real possibility", Boris Johnson's most senior adviser has warned, as he insisted the Tories and Labour are much closer than polls suggest.
Dominic Cummings voiced fears about complacency costing the Conservatives the election

A YouGov poll on Wednesday night predicted the Conservatives would win a 68-seat majority by taking seats in Labour heartlands in the north and Midlands.
The seat-by-seat analysis, using a technique that correctly predicted the 2017 hung parliament, suggests the Tories will win 359 seats, Labour 211, the Liberal Democrats 13, SNP 43 and other parties 24.

If the prediction proved correct, it would be the largest number of seats won by the Tories since 1987 and the fewest seats won by Labour since Michael Foot's disastrous performance in 1983.
YouGov suggests the Tories will break down Labour's "red wall" from the Midlands to the north.
Among 44 Labour seats that YouGov predicts the Tories will take are the West Bromwich East seat vacated by departing Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, and the Bolsover seat held by Dennis Skinner since 1970.
The Conservatives are also predicted to pick up Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Wakefield and two seats in Stoke on Trent and would be close to taking Tony Blair's old seat in Sedgefield.

Separately, a Savanta ComRes poll for The Daily Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 41 per cent, down one percentage point from last week, Labour up two on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats down two on 13 per cent and the Brexit Party on five per cent.

[smelmoth]

Johnson is a poor leader and this confirms it. The Tories must be worried with 2 weeks left. They are playing a very safety first campaign and did the bare minimum with the manifesto. Johnson could still f**k everything up.

The Tories are worried but the extent of their worries is whether they will get a majority or not. They will be the largest party but then they already were. The whole point of the election was to get them over the line in a majority position with 100% of their successful candidates confirming in advance full discipline on the Brexit issue.

The only campaign agenda is to identify themselves as the natural hone for those who want to leave the EU (c50% of the electorate) and Scots who want to stay in UK (c50% of the Scottish electorate). Policy light. Detail light. Scrutiny light. Stay out of trouble.

Leave voters are going to decide this election.

[smelmoth]

Labour looked fucked according to latest yougov poll.
YouGov / Times MRP

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Some polls showing Labour closing the gap in terms of percentage share. However any of the predictions of seat numbers are worrying. Labour are going to lose seats to SNP and they have effectively written those seats off as SNP have positioned themselves on Labour turf and overlaid it with the nationalist issue.

[smelmoth]

Betting odds:

Tory overall majority: 4/9
No overall majority: 5/2
Labour majority: 25/1

Damned if I know how Johnson's doing it, but he seems to be winning. I'm getting the same sinking feeling I got in 2016 when it started to look like Trump had a chance.

Maybe the "antisemitism" muck is sticking.

You can rule Labour out as irrelevant. Any opposition that couldn't win an election through all the years of austerity and Brexit fuckwittery clearly don't deserve to lead.

At this stage I'd much prefer a clear Johnston majority than a hung parliament and DUP with a voting influence.  As much a **** as he is he couldn't give a f**k about Ireland or the Northern Union. If hard Brexit is his aim he's more likely to shaft the latter.

I think you underestimate just how much of a problem Brexit is for Labour.

[smelmoth]

Dear Seafoid,

I would make an educated guess, you voted against Brexit and lost. You were for Clinton and hated the idea of Trump winning. Now you are going to get the treble up, as you cannot see the Tories are going to swot away Labour, you are grasping at straws thinking a miracle will occur in the next fortnight.
Also Finucane will not beat Dodds, too much riding on it for the latter....can you call one election correctly?.

Brace yourself for Brexit, and as I have written previously on this thread, it accelerates the prospect of a border poll and then the possibility of a United Ireland.


One other item that Left/labour fans fail to answer, if the Labour party were discriminating against its Islamic members in the manner in which it is systematically doing so against the Jewish brethren, I am certain all the leftist/socialist/Marxists would be up in arms.....why all the denial, ignore the elephant in the room stuff?. the policy is an underhand one of banish the jews, welcome with open arms the Muslims, now seen as the safest voting block for the Labour.   
What is puzzling is that Labour advocates all this snowflake social policy of pro choice abortion, same sex marriage, whatever you want gender wise and liberal education.....yet their Islamic friends are totally against these policies, look at what is happening in education in Birmingham for example, when the policy/religion clash occurs.

when they build up sufficient numbers, the muslims will abandon Labour and set up their own fundamentalist party in Britain and then Labour will be as relevant as the Labour party in the south of Ireland.

Feel free to wind up Seafoid but tone down the Rod Liddle impersonation. Some people have just had their breakfast

[seafoid]

Johnson is a poor leader and this confirms it. The Tories must be worried with 2 weeks left. They are playing a very safety first campaign and did the bare minimum with the manifesto. Johnson could still f**k everything up.

The Tories are worried but the extent of their worries is whether they will get a majority or not. They will be the largest party but then they already were. The whole point of the election was to get them over the line in a majority position with 100% of their successful candidates confirming in advance full discipline on the Brexit issue.

The only campaign agenda is to identify themselves as the natural hone for those who want to leave the EU (c50% of the electorate) and Scots who want to stay in UK (c50% of the Scottish electorate). Policy light. Detail light. Scrutiny light. Stay out of trouble.

Leave voters are going to decide this election.

Remain are 53% now
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/brexit-polls-latest-john-curtice-remain-lead-leave-non-voters-97295

Neither Corbyn nor Johnson are attractive leaders, for various reasons.
It's going to come down to this. I think tactical voting will play a role as well.
If Labour's numbers continue to improve a hung Parliament is likely.

[smelmoth]

Johnson is a poor leader and this confirms it. The Tories must be worried with 2 weeks left. They are playing a very safety first campaign and did the bare minimum with the manifesto. Johnson could still f**k everything up.

The Tories are worried but the extent of their worries is whether they will get a majority or not. They will be the largest party but then they already were. The whole point of the election was to get them over the line in a majority position with 100% of their successful candidates confirming in advance full discipline on the Brexit issue.

The only campaign agenda is to identify themselves as the natural hone for those who want to leave the EU (c50% of the electorate) and Scots who want to stay in UK (c50% of the Scottish electorate). Policy light. Detail light. Scrutiny light. Stay out of trouble.

Leave voters are going to decide this election.

Remain are 53% now
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/brexit-polls-latest-john-curtice-remain-lead-leave-non-voters-97295

Neither Corbyn nor Johnson are attractive leaders, for various reasons.
It's going to come down to this. I think tactical voting will play a role as well.
If Labour's numbers continue to improve a hung Parliament is likely.

The point is that the Tory/Brexit Raving Looney Party deal presents Leave voters with a really simple voting choice in most constituencies. Labour needs to retain as many Leave voters as possible. Leave voters decide this election. The paradox here is that Remainers like myself need Labour to offer something attractive to Leave voters in order to see of the threat of No Deal Leave and ultimately Leave altogether