China Coronavirus

[Angelo]

People like Angelo who try to prove Covid isn't that serious always throw out these lines that most of the covid deaths aren't really covid and they're overstated etc. But the easiest way to show the argument is nonsense is to look at excess deaths (the number of deaths above the previous 5 year average). And from that you can see there were over 1800 excess deaths in 2020 alone, the largest percentage increase caused since the Spanish flu. In the first 3 weeks of January 2021 alone 25% more people died than the average of the 5 years before this one (and as stated before those 5 years included the Aussie Flu which Angelo is so obsessed with). And it has to be remembered for large parts of the last year restrictions have been in place which have undoubtedly slowed the spread of covid. 

And this proves that unlike Aussie Flu which caused a one month spike this is a much larger prolonged problem which will overwhelm the health service and cause many many deaths if left to run wild as Angelo seems to want.

I haven't said Covid isn't serious.

I have said that there are some amount of hypocrites on here who couldn't give a toss how many people die or what they die from as long as it isn't Covid related.

[imtommygunn]

The track and trace you mean.... As far as I am aware yeah and whoever tests positive needs to register on the app as having tested positive.

Yes, so the problem is if you have no app, and are not forced to have it, or if you a no smart phone it wont work

Yeah - there are many fundamental flaws to it lol.

[Redhand Santa]

People like Angelo who try to prove Covid isn't that serious always throw out these lines that most of the covid deaths aren't really covid and they're overstated etc. But the easiest way to show the argument is nonsense is to look at excess deaths (the number of deaths above the previous 5 year average). And from that you can see there were over 1800 excess deaths in 2020 alone, the largest percentage increase caused since the Spanish flu. In the first 3 weeks of January 2021 alone 25% more people died than the average of the 5 years before this one (and as stated before those 5 years included the Aussie Flu which Angelo is so obsessed with). And it has to be remembered for large parts of the last year restrictions have been in place which have undoubtedly slowed the spread of covid. 

And this proves that unlike Aussie Flu which caused a one month spike this is a much larger prolonged problem which will overwhelm the health service and cause many many deaths if left to run wild as Angelo seems to want.

I haven't said Covid isn't serious.

I have said that there are some amount of hypocrites on here who couldn't give a toss how many people die or what they die from as long as it isn't Covid related.

But you have tried to play down the number of deaths and make out that a lot of them weren't really from covid and the numbers are exaggerated. But it doesn't explain the huge excess deaths.

[Angelo]

People like Angelo who try to prove Covid isn't that serious always throw out these lines that most of the covid deaths aren't really covid and they're overstated etc. But the easiest way to show the argument is nonsense is to look at excess deaths (the number of deaths above the previous 5 year average). And from that you can see there were over 1800 excess deaths in 2020 alone, the largest percentage increase caused since the Spanish flu. In the first 3 weeks of January 2021 alone 25% more people died than the average of the 5 years before this one (and as stated before those 5 years included the Aussie Flu which Angelo is so obsessed with). And it has to be remembered for large parts of the last year restrictions have been in place which have undoubtedly slowed the spread of covid. 

And this proves that unlike Aussie Flu which caused a one month spike this is a much larger prolonged problem which will overwhelm the health service and cause many many deaths if left to run wild as Angelo seems to want.

I haven't said Covid isn't serious.

I have said that there are some amount of hypocrites on here who couldn't give a toss how many people die or what they die from as long as it isn't Covid related.

But you have tried to play down the number of deaths and make out that a lot of them weren't really from covid and the numbers are exaggerated. But it doesn't explain the huge excess deaths.

I haven't. I have point that that the basis on which they are recorded are spurious. It's a fact.

Meanwhile other posters come on here and justify and excuse the level of death we had in Jan 2018 which we have not reach during Covid yet. It's shameless hypocrisy. People who die from flu don't matter but people dying from Covid do. I can't abide that kind of double standards.

[sid waddell]

An elimination strategy in tandem with mass vaccinations is the only way to go with this disease

We've had a year of it now and the evidence is comprehensive

Letting it spread produces new variants and there is a risk a supervariant could emerge which has us back to square one

That risk exists because it has been let spread

It is frankly shocking and abominable that people are still proposing half measures, the exact same things which have failed over and over again

The failure of track and trace by any country in the West really, has been absolutely unforgiveable. Obviously no government will admit it's failure but I do not accept the blame for the spread of this disease like we get weekly from Stormont when they have completely and utterly failed on this.  It's high time they were held to account.

Test and trace cannot work where Covid is rampant in the community

It can only work where there is a very low number of cases

To get the number of cases low you need hard lockdown and then border closures

We are hard locking down anyway, so we might as well finish the job to zero if possible rather than repeating the same mistake yet again and opening up, where the circle will continue

As an internationalist, it kills me to say this but borders need to be shut, because foreign travel is a no no if you want to eliminate this thing, it continually re seeds chains of transmission

If the DUP continue to stay loyal to the virus, which they will, the Republic can take its own measures, which may not result in a full Croke Park, but living with Level 1 or Level 2 rather than level 5 as we are doing

JK Galbraith said "Ideas are inherently conservative. They yield not to the attack of other ideas but to the massive onslaughts of circumstances with which they cannot contend."

The failed idea of living with the virus has still not yielded but how much longer this can remain the case is questionable

This idea has yielded several more transmissible variants, the idea has failed

The idea was implemented because it was too much effort on the part of governments to put proper policy in place

But the last year has necessitated a much bigger effort from ordinary people because of this

Zero Covid, aggressive suppression, call it whatever you want, this is or should be the only game in town now

[sid waddell]

Tomas Ryan talking to Eamon Dunphy re Zero Covid/aggressive suppression/elimination

Well worth listening to

https://thestandwitheamondunphy.com/episode/1014/

https://thestandwitheamondunphy.com/episode/1006/

[GetOverTheBar]

The country as a whole was well able to get the lid and contain on this thing last summer. There wasn't a bit of it about.

The North regularly had 0 deaths per day for about 3-4 months.

We should have capitalised then when it was manageable.

[Louther]

Some very good points Sid and well thought out.

I'd suffer on one area and that is our lockdown - both sides of the border. I'd not say it's by any means a hard lockdown. We haven't gone to lengths that Australia, New Zealand, China, etc have went to we strict implementation of the rules such as curfews, internal travel etc. As you'd said, most of our restrictions have been to effect of living with the Virus rather than surpressing it.

The first lockdown was much more effective and visible in its effect. Since then each time it's impact is less noticeable. Our classification of what is essential business is far looser than other nations.

And that goes before you consider compliance with the rules. As a nation, we look for loopholes rather than taking them as intended and justify them to suit own self interests.

Lockdown has not been easy for anyone and no one wants them. But seems to be reluctance to do what's right to move out of the quicker. But I don't think there is middle ground with this virus. Given chance it will quickly rise again.

At present I don't think zero covid will be an option with our borders and movement of people. With vaccine on the horizon there will be even less desire to attain this.

[trailer]

Gerry "whatabout" Kelly getting it put up to him by Carruthers on Talkback. Gerry not handling it very well and getting really arsey.

This is just a complete mess regarding the PSNI and enforcing Covid regs.

[sid waddell]

Some very good points Sid and well thought out.

I'd suffer on one area and that is our lockdown - both sides of the border. I'd not say it's by any means a hard lockdown. We haven't gone to lengths that Australia, New Zealand, China, etc have went to we strict implementation of the rules such as curfews, internal travel etc. As you'd said, most of our restrictions have been to effect of living with the Virus rather than surpressing it.

The first lockdown was much more effective and visible in its effect. Since then each time it's impact is less noticeable. Our classification of what is essential business is far looser than other nations.

And that goes before you consider compliance with the rules. As a nation, we look for loopholes rather than taking them as intended and justify them to suit own self interests.

Lockdown has not been easy for anyone and no one wants them. But seems to be reluctance to do what's right to move out of the quicker. But I don't think there is middle ground with this virus. Given chance it will quickly rise again.

At present I don't think zero covid will be an option with our borders and movement of people. With vaccine on the horizon there will be even less desire to attain this.

With the vaccine - and we all hope they are super effective and end this thing -  I fear we will run into a wall

Everybody who is getting the vaccine currently is super eager to get it - and I'd estimate that about 40-50% of the population are very eager to get it

Then I'd estimate that around another 25-30% are "soft yesses", ie. they are not against getting it, but at the same time probably aren't that bothered, they will play it by ear

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

We need probably 85% of the population at least to get vaccinated before we run into a theoretical herd immunity situation - the new variants are believed to have upped the percentage needed from 70%

I fear we'll run into a wall where we only get maybe 65-70% vaccinated

I think a lot of the soft yesses will end up not bothering to get it - "ah shure deaths are going down, this thing is fizzling out"

But that means we will still have the virus and perhaps have to continually revaccinate as he years go by, or a new super variant could emerge which evades vaccines

The more I think about it, the worldwide vaccination situation will likely turn into a shitshow as regards how it affects movement in various countries, we will be in a long period of uncertainty and it will cause huge divisions both within countries and between countries

Regarding Zero Covid/aggressive suppression, the border is a problem, but Ryan believes you can cut out around 90% of the chains of transmission even if the DUP keep doing what they're doing

The border is not a reason to not do Zero Covid

Even if it does not work as effectively as New Zealand, which it likely wouldn't, it would almost certainly work a good deal better than this current non-strategy

Anyway everybody in the Republic currently has a 5km border around them

[Louther]

The Vaccine take up will be a worry when it's starts to roll out more and there will be resist to it. I also feel there will be enough good reason for the soft 20% to follow through and get it. The remaining 20% will he a hard group to target and the minority who aggressively peddle an anti-vac stance will also be more aggressive in their stance.

The take up here and abroad, with some European countries like France and Italy showing even higher levels of take up, will be key and why they are looking to global roll out and collective approach. Some
Commentary that UK moving too quick but could equally Stevie EU moving far too slow for whatever reason and their seem to be several eg delay in orders/approval, supply, roll out strategy.

On zero covid, my preferred would be to aggressively pursue it but that will take a severe hard lockdown before international travel restrictions and whatever about government having ambition for that, I don't enough people have at this stage. The Northern border is one thing but we've a short sea/land border to UK and Europe and it would seem very difficult to close this off. On paper it seems easy but such are the transport and work corridors in place, it's a big task to manage and enforce.

Our personal 5km border is very very suspect at present. We see the numbers happy to travel overseas are taking the €500 fine and continuing the journey, it's even more at local level with €100 fine and in most cases a chance to just turn round and try a different route to destination.

[five points]

Our personal 5km border is very very suspect at present. We see the numbers happy to travel overseas are taking the €500 fine and continuing the journey, it's even more at local level with €100 fine and in most cases a chance to just turn round and try a different route to destination.

There is neither science nor logic about the 5km limit. Most people in rural areas routinely go well outside their 5km for grocery shopping, which they are both legally permitted and well entitled to do, so it's pointless to stop people doing likewise for exercise and relaxation.

[BennyCake]

Some very good points Sid and well thought out.

I'd suffer on one area and that is our lockdown - both sides of the border. I'd not say it's by any means a hard lockdown. We haven't gone to lengths that Australia, New Zealand, China, etc have went to we strict implementation of the rules such as curfews, internal travel etc. As you'd said, most of our restrictions have been to effect of living with the Virus rather than surpressing it.

The first lockdown was much more effective and visible in its effect. Since then each time it's impact is less noticeable. Our classification of what is essential business is far looser than other nations.

And that goes before you consider compliance with the rules. As a nation, we look for loopholes rather than taking them as intended and justify them to suit own self interests.

Lockdown has not been easy for anyone and no one wants them. But seems to be reluctance to do what's right to move out of the quicker. But I don't think there is middle ground with this virus. Given chance it will quickly rise again.

At present I don't think zero covid will be an option with our borders and movement of people. With vaccine on the horizon there will be even less desire to attain this.

With the vaccine - and we all hope they are super effective and end this thing -  I fear we will run into a wall

Everybody who is getting the vaccine currently is super eager to get it - and I'd estimate that about 40-50% of the population are very eager to get it

Then I'd estimate that around another 25-30% are "soft yesses", ie. they are not against getting it, but at the same time probably aren't that bothered, they will play it by ear

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

We need probably 85% of the population at least to get vaccinated before we run into a theoretical herd immunity situation - the new variants are believed to have upped the percentage needed from 70%

I fear we'll run into a wall where we only get maybe 65-70% vaccinated

I think a lot of the soft yesses will end up not bothering to get it - "ah shure deaths are going down, this thing is fizzling out"

But that means we will still have the virus and perhaps have to continually revaccinate as he years go by, or a new super variant could emerge which evades vaccines

The more I think about it, the worldwide vaccination situation will likely turn into a shitshow as regards how it affects movement in various countries, we will be in a long period of uncertainty and it will cause huge divisions both within countries and between countries

Regarding Zero Covid/aggressive suppression, the border is a problem, but Ryan believes you can cut out around 90% of the chains of transmission even if the DUP keep doing what they're doing

The border is not a reason to not do Zero Covid

Even if it does not work as effectively as New Zealand, which it likely wouldn't, it would almost certainly work a good deal better than this current non-strategy

Anyway everybody in the Republic currently has a 5km border around them

Yes, there are millions who won't go near the vaccine, but eventually they'll have to get it, because you'll need a 'covid passport' to do anything, eg. shop, travel, go to work, go to the gym, go to mass, attend sports events, concerts etc.

I'm keeping an eye on the vaccine situation in New Zealand. Because if they remain covid free, with strict quarantine laws, then why would anyone in NZ need to get the vaccine?

[GetOverTheBar]

The Vaccine take up will be a worry when it's starts to roll out more and there will be resist to it. I also feel there will be enough good reason for the soft 20% to follow through and get it. The remaining 20% will he a hard group to target and the minority who aggressively peddle an anti-vac stance will also be more aggressive in their stance.

The take up here and abroad, with some European countries like France and Italy showing even higher levels of take up, will be key and why they are looking to global roll out and collective approach. Some
Commentary that UK moving too quick but could equally Stevie EU moving far too slow for whatever reason and their seem to be several eg delay in orders/approval, supply, roll out strategy.

On zero covid, my preferred would be to aggressively pursue it but that will take a severe hard lockdown before international travel restrictions and whatever about government having ambition for that, I don't enough people have at this stage. The Northern border is one thing but we've a short sea/land border to UK and Europe and it would seem very difficult to close this off. On paper it seems easy but such are the transport and work corridors in place, it's a big task to manage and enforce.

Our personal 5km border is very very suspect at present. We see the numbers happy to travel overseas are taking the €500 fine and continuing the journey, it's even more at local level with €100 fine and in most cases a chance to just turn round and try a different route to destination.

That is a high percentage. It can't be anywhere near that. Most people I've interacted with from many age ranges are all pretty much "If it gets it back to normal, why not".

[Louther]

Our personal 5km border is very very suspect at present. We see the numbers happy to travel overseas are taking the €500 fine and continuing the journey, it's even more at local level with €100 fine and in most cases a chance to just turn round and try a different route to destination.

There is neither science nor logic about the 5km limit. Most people in rural areas routinely go well outside their 5km for grocery shopping, which they are both legally permitted and well entitled to do, so it's pointless to stop people doing likewise for exercise and relaxation.

And that is why the Zero Covid would take the severe lockdown that I don't think Ireland could have followed previously or into the future. There are too many exceptions, rightly or wrongly, to any restrictions that have been put in place or could be. People could visit Town A one day and legitimately make a case to Town B the next. Maybe even go to Town C another day for exercise.

Any limit has always been in my eyes to restrict movement of people to a specific area. A control mechanism to limit transmission.

For zero covid, you talking curfews, leaving house only for essential shopping on limited basis etc etc.