China Coronavirus

[marty34]

"So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless.

Look - the likelihood of a mutation for vaccine escape is a direct function of the number of mutations, which is itself a direct function of the number of virus in existence, which is of course, dependent on the number of people infected and the number of people they infect etc etc.

That's why the behaviours of the likes of the USA, Brazil and UK have been so utterly irresponsible. The latter two have proved fertile breeding grounds for the virus to the point significant mutations were almost inevitable. The former? Well, their public health organisations have been effectively neutered (until last Wednesday), so there is no idea how many strains have developed in the USA.

The developing world is another problem, the South African health system (and its far from the worst) would never be able to cope - the same is true elsewhere - so it was incumbent on the strong nations of the world to manage their own houses to the point they could help those that couldn't help themselves.


Anyway, point being, when the vaccines start to drive down infection rates, they also drive down the very numbers that would otherwise lead to a more likely vaccine escape.

Its a global problem, and that will - in the end - need a global solution - otherwise the amount of virus reproducing will lead to vaccine escape at some point.

A couple of pieces of potential very positive news in the last few days. First a company in America has a designed a way to produce a vaccine in a pill. It has to go through the usual human trials but initial results were very good. That would be a total game changer in terms of getting a population vaccinated. It'll be towards the end of 2021 before it would be in general use if all goes well. Today I read of a nasal spray which is 99.9% effective in stopping the virus. You use it every second day. It could be ready by the summer. If people were able to use that it would go a long way to getting us back to some kind of normality.

In all these discussions, the small print is always looking 6 months down the line.

Positive I know but a good way away.

[JoG2]

The same way they told us once the top 4 priority groups are vaccinated things would return to normal
Oh wait
Lockdown until the summer
The narrative keeps changing
15th of February is the day top 4 vaccinated once then a 14 day wait
Nothing will be lifted in the next date
It's a one fit suits all
Why can't the government be a bit more sensible
Like so
Do outdoor sports transmit the virus. HIGHLY UNLIKELY . Ok let's open plus it helps health and well-being
Do pubs transmit. YES. Ok keep those close until after Easter
Do school kids. Well a bit. Right let's go for after St Patrick's Day
What about gyms? Not likely. OK let's open strict protocols in all gyms
What about retail. Well let's say any you can enter straight from the street. Let's open them April
Right let's look at indoor gatherings. Yes likely. Ok let's keep that restriction in place no visitors

But no

It's all lockdown continues

The first 2 phases aren't 100% complete yet Smurfy.
Once we get down to starting in the over 60s, we should be in a much better place

[imtommygunn]

433 cases in the north. Down a good bit but less testing at weekends. The inpatients number looks to be dropping and is below 800 for the first time in a long time. 14 more deaths

Smurfy it will be a long time before we see normality again. The tail end of the year before some normality I would expect. That is some and not all. I doubt many of us will see the inside of a bar for the guts of this year.

[lenny]

"So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless.

Look - the likelihood of a mutation for vaccine escape is a direct function of the number of mutations, which is itself a direct function of the number of virus in existence, which is of course, dependent on the number of people infected and the number of people they infect etc etc.

That's why the behaviours of the likes of the USA, Brazil and UK have been so utterly irresponsible. The latter two have proved fertile breeding grounds for the virus to the point significant mutations were almost inevitable. The former? Well, their public health organisations have been effectively neutered (until last Wednesday), so there is no idea how many strains have developed in the USA.

The developing world is another problem, the South African health system (and its far from the worst) would never be able to cope - the same is true elsewhere - so it was incumbent on the strong nations of the world to manage their own houses to the point they could help those that couldn't help themselves.


Anyway, point being, when the vaccines start to drive down infection rates, they also drive down the very numbers that would otherwise lead to a more likely vaccine escape.

Its a global problem, and that will - in the end - need a global solution - otherwise the amount of virus reproducing will lead to vaccine escape at some point.

A couple of pieces of potential very positive news in the last few days. First a company in America has a designed a way to produce a vaccine in a pill. It has to go through the usual human trials but initial results were very good. That would be a total game changer in terms of getting a population vaccinated. It'll be towards the end of 2021 before it would be in general use if all goes well. Today I read of a nasal spray which is 99.9% effective in stopping the virus. You use it every second day. It could be ready by the summer. If people were able to use that it would go a long way to getting us back to some kind of normality.

In all these discussions, the small print is always looking 6 months down the line.

Positive I know but a good way away.

I'm not gonna disagree. It's very disappointing that it's all so slow. We'd all love to have an end date when we could look forward to getting back to the pub or out for a meal. The way I view it though is that the more people comply the quicker we get back to normal. It's a while away yet though.

[Smurfy123]

Tommygun why do you think that?

The whole point of the vaccination is to protect lives and allow people to live theirs

There is no point vaccination if society doesn't start to reopen

What is the point of vaccination if we don't start the road to recover?

I'm not saying open all up

Slowly release us

House arrest

[JoG2]

"So we may be in a place where we may need a new vaccine."  The current crop, despite their remarkable development speed and efficacy, are vulnerable to being rendered useless.

Look - the likelihood of a mutation for vaccine escape is a direct function of the number of mutations, which is itself a direct function of the number of virus in existence, which is of course, dependent on the number of people infected and the number of people they infect etc etc.

That's why the behaviours of the likes of the USA, Brazil and UK have been so utterly irresponsible. The latter two have proved fertile breeding grounds for the virus to the point significant mutations were almost inevitable. The former? Well, their public health organisations have been effectively neutered (until last Wednesday), so there is no idea how many strains have developed in the USA.

The developing world is another problem, the South African health system (and its far from the worst) would never be able to cope - the same is true elsewhere - so it was incumbent on the strong nations of the world to manage their own houses to the point they could help those that couldn't help themselves.


Anyway, point being, when the vaccines start to drive down infection rates, they also drive down the very numbers that would otherwise lead to a more likely vaccine escape.

Its a global problem, and that will - in the end - need a global solution - otherwise the amount of virus reproducing will lead to vaccine escape at some point.

A couple of pieces of potential very positive news in the last few days. First a company in America has a designed a way to produce a vaccine in a pill. It has to go through the usual human trials but initial results were very good. That would be a total game changer in terms of getting a population vaccinated. It'll be towards the end of 2021 before it would be in general use if all goes well. Today I read of a nasal spray which is 99.9% effective in stopping the virus. You use it every second day. It could be ready by the summer. If people were able to use that it would go a long way to getting us back to some kind of normality.

In all these discussions, the small print is always looking 6 months down the line.

Positive I know but a good way away.

I'm not gonna disagree. It's very disappointing that it's all so slow. We'd all love to have an end date when we could look forward to getting back to the pub or out for a meal. The way I view it though is that the more people comply the quicker we get back to normal. It's a while away yet though.

Agreed Lenny. Was out at the mini supermarket earlier. A couple of complete hallions walking about without masks on glaring at any body that looked at them. I walked out behind them and they got into a Foyle Prevention Team vehicle. You couldn't make it up

[Smurfy123]

But we keep changing the narrative
3 months ago it was the vaccine
Now a magic tablet
The cases are as low as they have been for months
Hospital beds have dropped almost 200 in 10 days
Yes we have people who still fuk the rules
But 95% of people don't
Roads are basically empty compared to normal
We will always get someone firing out a picture of cars on roads
Embarrassing really

[imtommygunn]

It isn't going to happen overnight smurfy plus I don't think a good decision has been made on the gap between the two vaccines and there is going to have to be some revisiting.

Our health service is under serious pressure currently. I don't think going back to normality can even be considered until there is some level of control there.

Also with new variants and being unsure how a vaccine will work with them then caution will need to be exercised.

There are still just too many unknowns. How long till the vaccine gets rolled out. Then how many demographics get it before relaxing restrictions. How long will there be immunity etc.

The government keeps changing the narrative. There are plenty of ones who didn't change from the start and what they said is playing out.

Cases are not low. When below 1000 is a win you are in a bad place.

What do you open first though. Basically the thing is still out of control with too many unknowns.

Stuff will open up over the next month or two at current rate but it is just whether opening it up will keep it in check. If it doesn't it will just be back to square one.

[South Laois man]

Smurfy, I wouldn't be as pessimistic as Tommygun. Vaccines will get us out of this. We'll be in a lot better place by May/June. Maybe back to normal by September.

[imtommygunn]

I don't mean to come across too pessimistic sorry lol. We'll be in a much better place September but I couldn't see it being right back to normal.

North and south the health services are still in dire straits. I don't see how anything can change until that does. (Which it *should*soon hopefully)

[Jim Bob]

Last week in the north they were predicting that admissions to hospital would double by this weekend. This doesn't appear to have happened or have I got it wrong ?

[Smurfy123]

Tommy I agree I don't see things bein back to normal until maybe March 2021 but when I say normal I mean having 50000 at a match, I do think that's a year away but what I am saying is some stuff have to start reopening
Outdoor sports
Schools
Gyms
Retail

All above has to be in the conversation

Pubs
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Packed grounds

Al those can wait

That's what I can't understand too. They said this weekend was to be record admissions to hospitals yet we are 200 down? Better methods of treatment??

[whitegoodman]

Last week in the north they were predicting that admissions to hospital would double by this weekend. This doesn't appear to have happened or have I got it wrong ?

That would look to be right, hospital numbers are below 800 for the first time in a while and ICU numbers are going up slightly but not as much as they had anticipated thankfully.

[imtommygunn]

I think probably April / post Easter based on rumblings but I would generally agree with considering those things for when they lift lockdowns and bars etc later smurfy.

I wasn't sure why they predicted a surge this weekend tbh.

[Smurfy123]

The north all but stopped vaccinating
1700 today out of a total of almost 500000 in the uk