China Coronavirus

[sid waddell]

Sid, it would be more honest and realistic if instead of producing a figure of 1.1m in isolation - which means it is always going to look vast - perhaps  evaluating it against a relevant figure or benchmark.

Such as the one that 55 or so million people die every year across the globe. And that approximately 3 million people across the world were dying every year from respiratory infections, before Covid came along.


——

I know you're spoiling for an argument where you'll inevitably be wrong and throw out a load of nonsense garble that you recently used against someone else and thought it sounded clever, so I'm away now.

You're arguing that a demonstrable fact is a not a fact

Just accept you're wrong and are yet again talking shite, as you have done since the start of this pandemic

At least with Fulvio, sorry Angelo, he has the excuse of being not that bright

It's sadder to see somebody with at least some semblance of intelligence choosing to go down the rabbit hole you have gone down over the last while

Sort of Graham Linehan-esque

I'm quite fascinated by the mindset where seemingly reasonably smart people suddenly decide they want to reject reality and live in a world of make believe

[Angelo]

I don't think I've seen a poster make such a fool of themselves since trailer departed us.

But it makes great lunchtime reading - so keep up the good work young Angelo 

It's staggering!

Fair play to LCohen and a few others for repeatedly calling out his nonsense in a very reasonable manner. Although I think their calm reasoned logical responses are utterly pointless as nothing goes in to that head of his!

Logic or reason are a waste of time.  Tried it and failed.

Better to sit back, enjoy the meltdown and be thankful you were born with a functioning brain.

Maybe you should try using logic or reason as the only thing you contributed were hysterical assertions that flew in the face of logic and reason.

People who use logic and reason would be able to understand that making definitive statements on a novel virus is idiocy.

[Ed Ricketts]

Wasn't this dance done with Smurfy about four months ago? Angelo is just the more verbose version, with a poorer head for figures.

Attempts to enter into this discussion in good faith are pointless. Pointless because he has rigged the argument from the start. He has set parameters asserting that science knows nothing and can't be trusted. He is therefore bulletproof to any counter argument informed by research or expert opinion.

This is the post fact, post truth world. Where no one knows anything more than anyone else. Where no one can know more than anyone else. Where everyone's half baked opinions all hold equal weight. Where you just make up your own reality and refuse to let anyone tell you that you're wrong.

Fortunately, Celtic and Tyrone are back in action this weekend, so yer man should occupied arguing black is white in those threads for at least a few days.

[Angelo]

Sid, it would be more honest and realistic if instead of producing a figure of 1.1m in isolation - which means it is always going to look vast - perhaps  evaluating it against a relevant figure or benchmark.

Such as the one that 55 or so million people die every year across the globe. And that approximately 3 million people across the world were dying every year from respiratory infections, before Covid came along.


——

I know you're spoiling for an argument where you'll inevitably be wrong and throw out a load of nonsense garble that you recently used against someone else and thought it sounded clever, so I'm away now.

You're arguing that a demonstrable fact is a not a fact

Just accept you're wrong and are yet again talking shite, as you have done since the start of this pandemic

At least with Fulvio, sorry Angelo, he has the excuse of being not that bright

It's sadder to see somebody with at least some semblance of intelligence choosing to go down the rabbit hole you have gone down over the last while

Sort of Graham Linehan-esque

I'm quite fascinated by the mindset where seemingly reasonably smart people suddenly decide they want to reject reality and live in a world of make believe

I'm quite fascinated by your arrogance.

It amazes me that we have all these experts here who know so much about Covid yet cases surge all over the world. Your talents are wasted on an internet forum.

[Franko]

I don't think I've seen a poster make such a fool of themselves since trailer departed us.

But it makes great lunchtime reading - so keep up the good work young Angelo 

It's staggering!

Fair play to LCohen and a few others for repeatedly calling out his nonsense in a very reasonable manner. Although I think their calm reasoned logical responses are utterly pointless as nothing goes in to that head of his!

Logic or reason are a waste of time.  Tried it and failed.

Better to sit back, enjoy the meltdown and be thankful you were born with a functioning brain.

Maybe you should try using logic or reason as the only thing you contributed were hysterical assertions that flew in the face of logic and reason.

People who use logic and reason would be able to understand that making definitive statements on a novel virus is idiocy.

And we're away again!

Hon Angelo atta boy, you tell em 

[sid waddell]

Wasn't this dance done with Smurfy about four months ago? Angelo is just the more verbose version, with a poorer head for figures.

Attempts to enter into this discussion in good faith are pointless. Pointless because he has rigged the argument from the start. He has set parameters asserting that science knows nothing and can't be trusted. He is therefore bulletproof to any counter argument informed by research or expert opinion.

This is the post fact, post truth world. Where no one knows anything more than anyone else. Where no one can know more than anyone else. Where everyone's half baked opinions all hold equal weight. Where you just make up your own reality and refuse to let anyone tell you that you're wrong.

Fortunately, Celtic and Tyrone are back in action this weekend, so yer man should occupied arguing black is white in those threads for at least a few days.

Facts and truth are "elitist" now

Thanks Rupert Murdoch and the Koch brothers and their fellow elites that have promoted this brain rot for decades

[Angelo]

Wasn't this dance done with Smurfy about four months ago? Angelo is just the more verbose version, with a poorer head for figures.

Attempts to enter into this discussion in good faith are pointless. Pointless because he has rigged the argument from the start. He has set parameters asserting that science knows nothing and can't be trusted. He is therefore bulletproof to any counter argument informed by in research or expert opinion.

This is the post fact, post truth world. Where no one knows anything more than anyone else. Where no one can know more than anyone else. Where everyone's half baked opinions all hold equal weight. Where you just make up your own reality and refuse to let anyone tell you that you're wrong.

Fortunately, Celtic and Tyrone are back in action this weekend, so yer man should occupied arguing black is white in those threads for at least a few days.

I haven't said science knows nothing or can't be trusted.

I have said this a time sensitive matter, we are now entering a second lockdown which is going have huge economic and societal ramifications. Science seems to be at odds with each other on large elements of the virus. We can't keep entering lockdowns and restrictive measures to combat the virus, it's not feasible as a long term solution and there is no indication of a short-medium term solution from science, so the alternative is us living with the virus and what level do we say Covid is an acceptable risk, much like every winter we take the seasonal flu as an acceptable risk?

The figures coming from the second wave in terms of the potency of the virus are encouraging if they continue to fall or stabilise.

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

Still unable to offer something substantive, maybe some of the gutsier posters will give it a go for you.

[Angelo]

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/previousinfluenzaseasonssurveillancereports/20172018season/Influenza%202017-2018%20Annual%20Summary_Final.pdf

o Sentinel GP ILI consultation peak rate: 100.8/100,000
o Number of notified influenza cases: 11,889
o Number of confirmed influenza cases hospitalised: 4,713
o Number of confirmed influenza cases admitted to ICU: 191
o Number of notified influenza cases that died: 255
o Number of acute respiratory infection/influenza outbreaks: 223

So the flu season in the 26 had a fatality rate of 2.17% on notified cases.

There have been 19,178 cases in the 26 of Covid from 1 Aug to present.
78 deaths from Covid in the 26 from 1 Aug to present.

Representing a fatality rate of 0.4%.

So I come back to what is an acceptable risk for Covid?

[Franko]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

Still unable to offer something substantive, maybe some of the gutsier posters will give it a go for you.

Unsurprisingly, your maths is wrong. 

You just keep on doing it don't you?

[imtommygunn]

An acceptable risk to do what? Let it run rife?

At current growth rate hospitals in the north will not have the beds for people. It is rare that this had happened for flu to the best of my knowledge.

[Angelo]

Let's use Belgium as an example

https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/health-status/communicable-diseases/influenza-and-influenza-like-illness#:~:text=Of%20the%20hospitalized%20cases%2C%2013,average%20compared%20to%20previous%20seasons.

On average, around 600,000 people are affected by influenza-like illness (ILI) each year in Belgium, i.e., about 5% of the total population. About 50-60% of these cases are actual influenza cases.
While ILI is in most cases a benign illness, about 2% to 3% of influenza cases require hospitalization. Of the hospitalized cases, 13% develop severe complications, including 6% who die in the course of hospital stay; usually more than 80% of these deaths occur in people of 65 years and over.
The Belgian flu epidemic of the 2018-2019 season lasted 8 weeks, which was average compared to previous seasons. An estimated 506,000 Belgians consulted their GP for flu-like symptoms. The severity indicators indicated that this flu epidemic was relatively no more serious than in previous seasons.

An estimated 600k people get a flu every year.
2-3% get hospitalised - take 3% - that's 18,000
6% of those hospitalised will die - that's 1,080 deaths a year from flu in Belgium
A fatality rate of 0.17% of those est infected

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/

The second wave currently in Belgium at the minute.
165,880 positive cases from 1 Aug to present
506 deaths from 1 Aug to present
A fatality rate of 0.31% of those with positive tests

Does anyone else want to tell him?

Still unable to offer something substantive, maybe some of the gutsier posters will give it a go for you.

Unsurprisingly, your maths is wrong. 

You just keep on doing it don't you?

Those figures are fine, I think it's more a case of you suffering from an inflated sense of your own worth.

The floor is yours if you can correct them, careful though.....

[Angelo]

An acceptable risk to do what? Let it run rife?

At current growth rate hospitals in the north will not have the beds for people. It is rare that this had happened for flu to the best of my knowledge.

An acceptable risk to the the detrimental economic and societal problems that lockdown and restrictions bring.

Seasonal flu overwhelms hospitals every year and we accept that risk. Should governments not have spent the last 6 months planing for poor healthcare capacity?