China Coronavirus

[93-DY-SAM]

Am sick of hearing all this bollox on Facebook and elsewhere about we can keep having lockdowns and there needs to be a way we can learn to live with this and so on. Yes, we can't keep having lockdowns but there already is a way to live with it. However far too many people don't want to follow the rules and think they know better. It is those people who have put us where we are today. If they had done what was asked of them all along we wouldn't be back closing schools and businesses.

[Angelo]

Does the flu cripple the health service in the same way as Covid?

That's not the same as "Do people die from it?" Yes, they do but are they coming into hospitals in the same numbers meaning that beds and treatment aren't available to anyone else?

Statistically hospital beds come under increasing pressure every winter from the flu.

Clearly there is an acceptable level of death with the seasonal flu or everything would shut down, so I'm asking you what you deem an acceptable level of death with Covid? Or are we meant to sit on our hands until science solves it, which could be years, which could be never.

[thewobbler]

There is a conflicint argument that health services and resources are being completely consumed and focused on Covid which is having a negative impact on other health problems such as cancer.

Here we have the usual bollix being repeated again, what can the health services do with Covid only treat it? WTF do you expect them to do differently?
ALready in Belfast over 100 procedures cancelled because of the refusal to have restrictions sooner.

That's highly subjective. Over 100 procedures cancelled due to Covid arrangements, less so.

[Angelo]

Am sick of hearing all this bollox on Facebook and elsewhere about we can keep having lockdowns and there needs to be a way we can learn to live with this and so on. Yes, we can't keep having lockdowns but there already is a way to live with it. However far too many people don't want to follow the rules and think they know better. It is those people who have put us where we are today. If they had done what was asked of them all along we wouldn't be back closing schools and businesses.

A way to live with it that we all know is not going to be practical, the youngsters are primarily getting scapegoated but young people are going to be reckless  and care free as is the spirit of young people. It's grand for us to lecture on that but we never lived with those type of restrictions in that time. Many of us would have grown up during varying stages of the troubles, did we stay in on a Saturday night hiding under the bed because a loyalist murder squad might target a bar we went drinking in?

What's been asked of people is not going to be pratical in the long run really? I think government planing on both sides of the border and in the UK has been really, really poor in putting in proper measures that means we have to return to lockdown type situations. It's not just a problem here - France, Belgium, Spain, Poland, Czech Republic are all seeing huge rises in cases.

We have to plan to live in these times, the prior lockdown should have allowed governments to plan and put in place measures that meant when that was over we didn't have to go back, as far as I can see - they failed. We will see in the coming weeks the cost of that failure.

[Angelo]

There is a conflicint argument that health services and resources are being completely consumed and focused on Covid which is having a negative impact on other health problems such as cancer.

Here we have the usual bollix being repeated again, what can the health services do with Covid only treat it? WTF do you expect them to do differently?
ALready in Belfast over 100 procedures cancelled because of the refusal to have restrictions sooner.

Not become too consumed with Covid, have proper resources in place that mean other critical services are not consumed by Covid.

[thewobbler]

But HS "not enough hospital beds" is far from a new phenomenon.  Hospitals being overwhelmed is part of UK and Ireland living.

What we don't yet know about Covid is can we send most people home with paracetamol and a warm blanket, as combined with rest is often the only solution to the annual flu.

[Angelo]

Does the flu cripple the health service in the same way as Covid?

That's not the same as "Do people die from it?" Yes, they do but are they coming into hospitals in the same numbers meaning that beds and treatment aren't available to anyone else?

Statistically hospital beds come under increasing pressure every winter from the flu.

Clearly there is an acceptable level of death with the seasonal flu or everything would shut down, so I'm asking you what you deem an acceptable level of death with Covid? Or are we meant to sit on our hands until science solves it, which could be years, which could be never.

I don't think there is one. People with flu & Covid will be treated and the health service will try to save their lives. Unfortunately people will still die of both.
There is an attempt, via lockdown etc to lower Covid numbers in order to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
The flu doesn't overwhelm the hospitals in the same way therefore a lockdown is not seen to be required for it.

Maybe not in the same way but the flu does overwhelm hospitals at Winter and the health service does become strained and deaths do occur due to this and this is deemed an acceptable level.

So back to my question, what is an acceptable level of death. Lockdown has huge negative drawbacks to people's livelihoods, the economy and wider social and mental health problems so at what point do we say this lockdown and restrictions are counter-productive on a societal wide basis? That's a very important discussion those in power need to be discussing now.

We have been told again and again by scientists and the WHO that there is no silver bullet for Covid, it's going to be here for the medium to long terms so we simply have to learn to live with it. Some countries are making a much better fist of it that others.

Cases on the rise are going to be an inevitability.

There seems to be conflicting problems on both sides of the border - here it is the economic repercussions of quelling the spread, down south it's their dysfunctional health service being unable to cope. I think we probably have 4x the level of Covid transmissions up here at the minute that they have down south.

[armaghniac]

Not become too consumed with Covid, have proper resources in place that mean other critical services are not consumed by Covid.

There is a point that the summer was wasted. However, Swann is opening up the Nightingale again in Belfast. But you can only increase resources so much, you cannot magic up experienced doctors and nurses in the short, we are paying a price for unerinvestment in the longer term. Perhaps we should send to China, since they got rid of the virus by testing everyone, they may have a few doctors to spare.

But HS "not enough hospital beds" is far from a new phenomenon.  Hospitals being overwhelmed is part of UK and Ireland living.

What we don't yet know about Covid is can we send most people home with paracetamol and a warm blanket, as combined with rest is often the only solution to the annual flu.

On the RTÉ news today was a blood test pioneered by Beaumont hospital and some place in Boston which attempts to predict whether Covid is going to affect you seriously, in which case they throw the kitchen sink at it, or whether you are more in the chicken soup category. If this type of test works it would be very helpful, for instance they have the monoclonal antibodies that Trump got, but not enough to go around. A test that would predict who needed this would be good.

[seafoid]

The Tory backbenchers are anti- lockdown .
Johnson has decided to ignore the wonks and go ahead with his 3 level.plan which the wonks say won't work. And he won't do a circuit breaker

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/boris-johnson-finally-ready-challenge-sages-coronavirus-group/"We've got to learn to live with the virus and it seems at last the PM is recognising that." 

This is potentially extremely risky
And Ireland has NI and the common travel area

[Milltown Row2]

Is The flu is harder to catch than this virus?

Does it spread quicker?

I've had the flu once (I was 19) floored me for a few days, aching couldn't lift head off my pillow. Was bad, never had it since and I've been in big groups through the years, working as a teacher for many years and being out socially a lot!  I never got it again thankfully. So was I just lucky?

At present, probably. I don't know.

Some people here clearly think a flu is a headcold or general chest infection. I had the Aussie flu a couple of years back and it was the worst dose of anything I've ever had, floored me for a good week and I'd say it was three or four months before I was fully back to myself in terms of energy etc. Covid will impact people in different ways though, like the flu does.

We live with the flu though, if someone with underlying health conditions or old or in general poor health then it can have extreme consequences. There are a lot of parallels between it and the flu by the effects and the impacts, it's impossible to say if Covid is worse or not at this point. It's a novel virus so with time, you'd expect that we will be better equipped to treat it, deal with it and prevent it.

We'll have a better idea on the severity of Covid in the next few months.

So let's say the flu doesn't spread as quick, and it's harder to catch, cause I've never heard of a pandemic in the last few years for 'the flu' this virus though spreads far easier and more people get it all year round, unlike flu which is generally seasonal, thus creating an all year problem for hospitals.

Can you not see at the minute that hospitals are not ready or prepared for that? When they are ready and prepared for it I'd say yes closing everything down isn't the best solution, but until that time is it not smart to limit the admissions?

Or better I suppose to let them die?

[Angelo]

Does the flu cripple the health service in the same way as Covid?

That's not the same as "Do people die from it?" Yes, they do but are they coming into hospitals in the same numbers meaning that beds and treatment aren't available to anyone else?

Statistically hospital beds come under increasing pressure every winter from the flu.

Clearly there is an acceptable level of death with the seasonal flu or everything would shut down, so I'm asking you what you deem an acceptable level of death with Covid? Or are we meant to sit on our hands until science solves it, which could be years, which could be never.

I don't think there is one. People with flu & Covid will be treated and the health service will try to save their lives. Unfortunately people will still die of both.
There is an attempt, via lockdown etc to lower Covid numbers in order to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
The flu doesn't overwhelm the hospitals in the same way therefore a lockdown is not seen to be required for it.

Maybe not in the same way but the flu does overwhelm hospitals at Winter and the health service does become strained and deaths do occur due to this and this is deemed an acceptable level.

So back to my question, what is an acceptable level of death. Lockdown has huge negative drawbacks to people's livelihoods, the economy and wider social and mental health problems so at what point do we say this lockdown and restrictions are counter-productive on a societal wide basis? That's a very important discussion those in power need to be discussing now.

We have been told again and again by scientists and the WHO that there is no silver bullet for Covid, it's going to be here for the medium to long terms so we simply have to learn to live with it. Some countries are making a much better fist of it that others.

Cases on the rise are going to be an inevitability.

There seems to be conflicting problems on both sides of the border - here it is the economic repercussions of quelling the spread, down south it's their dysfunctional health service being unable to cope. I think we probably have 4x the level of Covid transmissions up here at the minute that they have down south.

As bad as it gets, where do you see it this winter if we let Covid run its course?

Impossible to predict.

Look we are where we are now but mistakes must not been repeated. The focus has to be not letting us be in this situation again, the problem with the political system in the O6 is that Westminister could not give a toss and you have unionism who are so subservient to them that there is not a hope they will pressure the Tories for adequate resourcing, therefore we are severly handicapped in dealing with resources for it.

Hopefully the trend that we're seeing about the virus being far, far less potent in terms of death carries out over the winter months and this will allow us to live with Covid in the long run but it's all completely speculative at the minute.

[Blowitupref]

Government has agreed on the advice to put Donegal Monaghan and Cavan into Level 4.

[GetOverTheBar]

In fairness to Angelo, he's not a million miles away from what's probably likely to happen.

This circuit breaker is a nonsense, it looks like they are buying time to try and ease up on the NHS (And as a result, a semi normal Xmas) which is fair enough. If they have to do it, let them work away. But they have ruined untold numbers of people here. I believe we'll soon start to see a revolt against this type of thing going forward if they plan another in say January.

It's not a long term solution though, by reopening in whatever weeks it is, the numbers will begin to creep up again....we'll be basically having this same conversation until if and indeed when, there is a vaccine. And even then, not many of the people reading this will see it for maybe 1 to 2 years considering worldwide demand and their age profile, if they ever do considering the vast majority will probably never even know they have / have had it.

This virus cannot be contained until there is mass testing. It's really as simple as that. Which will not happen in the West. The West is heading towards a hit and hope herd immunity via a series of "circuit breaks" but it's political suicide to utter this publicly.

[armaghniac]

In fairness to Angelo, he's not a million miles away from what's probably likely to happen.

This circuit breaker is a nonsense, it looks like they are buying time to try and ease up on the NHS (And as a result, a semi normal Xmas) which is fair enough. If they have to do it, let them work away. But they have ruined untold numbers of people here. I believe we'll soon start to see a revolt against this type of thing going forward if they plan another in say January.

People can be revolting if they want, but if they oppose this plan then they have to have another one.

It's not a long term solution though, by reopening in whatever weeks it is, the numbers will begin to creep up again....we'll be basically having this same conversation until if and indeed when, there is a vaccine. And even then, not many of the people reading this will see it for maybe 1 to 2 years considering worldwide demand and their age profile, if they ever do considering the vast majority will probably never even know they have / have had it.

No reason why a vaccine should not be distributed to all in 2021, a lot of work has been done to prime production and even to produce vaccines in advance of the approval. The first vaccine may not exterminate the virus, but it will brings things under control.

This virus cannot be contained until there is mass testing. It's really as simple as that. Which will not happen in the West. The West is heading towards a hit and hope herd immunity via a series of "circuit breaks" but it's political suicide to utter this publicly.

I very much agree that mass testing is one way forward, and might be facilitated by new testing procedures coming on stream.
The Chinese have the right idea, they used the lockdown to reduce numbers to controllable levels, then they used mass testing to mop up any remaining cases. For instance, this week they tested 9 million people because they have a few cases in one city https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54504785. You might say that this will not happen in the West, but is this to be allowed continue because of an unwillingness to test?

[ONeill]

If the bugger can be contracted more than once individually we're in for some fun.

I was talking to someone who works in ICU and surgeons operating on heart patients are seeing scarring they've never witnessed before - and are guessing that the patient has had Covid undetected previously. Added to that blood clots in the veins and arteries of the lungs, heart and brain of Covid patients are making this a 'very bad' flu for some.

Can anyone give a good reason why only Montenegro have (or had) a higher positive case rate than us recently? Bad luck or are we pure hallions?