China Coronavirus

[Rossfan]

Hindsight is a great yoke.

[Smurfy123]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

[Milltown Row2]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

No one on this site hasn't disagreed that the government and the government scientists fucked up. You keep harping on about that and everyone is in agreement! So no more on that please.

The question is how do YOU see this pan out now? How do we go back to normal again?

You said kids don't get the virus
If they don't get it they can't pass it on

Can you give me proof of this?

[Rossfan]

Come on Professor Smurf, step up to the plate and give us mere mortals the benefit of  your expertise.

[five points]

Keir Starmer has just destroyed Boris in the Commons.

[RadioGAAGAA]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

Any sign of the proof that kids don't get it or spread it smurfy?

Or are you now admitting they can do both?

[larryin89]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

Any sign of the proof that kids don't get it or spread it smurfy?

Or are you now admitting they can do both?

What are kids  0-18 years ?

1300 odd deaths in 26 ,  around 1100 had underlying health condition .  Houlahan said it yesterday obviously with exact numbers .

How many deaths in them 1300 were even under 40 years old ? Pretty sure I heard a figure last week when death toll was around 1000 that it was a total of 14 people under the age of 40 .

Every life matters no matter what but these stats we are hearing from all over all indicates that nursing homes should of been priority. Over 700 of death toll were in nursing homes .

We need to see more statistics, for example how many hospital admissions are healthy and lets say under 55 ?

[GetOverTheBar]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

Any sign of the proof that kids don't get it or spread it smurfy?

Or are you now admitting they can do both?

What are kids  0-18 years ?

1300 odd deaths in 26 ,  around 1100 had underlying health condition .  Houlahan said it yesterday obviously with exact numbers .

How many deaths in them 1300 were even under 40 years old ? Pretty sure I heard a figure last week when death toll was around 1000 that it was a total of 14 people under the age of 40 .

Every life matters no matter what but these stats we are hearing from all over all indicates that nursing homes should of been priority. Over 700 of death toll were in nursing homes .

We need to see more statistics, for example how many hospital admissions are healthy and lets say under 55 ?

I want the smoking statistics, of any country at this stage will do.

[GiveItToTheShooters]

Children obviously can get it and spread it. Claiming otherwise is just moronic.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Every life matters no matter what but these stats we are hearing from all over all indicates that nursing homes should of been priority. Over 700 of death toll were in nursing homes .

We need to see more statistics, for example how many hospital admissions are healthy and lets say under 55 ?

The context of this is that the resident mensa branch were saying kids can't get it, therefore they cannot spread it and as a result schools should never have shut.

i.e. According to them its impossible for wee Jimmy to have got it off wee Johnny in P3 and taken it home to granny & granda.

[Main Street]

What particular research is all that based upon?
The only legitimate research I have come across maintains that transmission of corona virus  in primary schools/pre schools  to be very low or absent.
And in two countries South Korea and Iceland, which kept pre-school and primary schools open in this time of covid-19, nothing has happened to deviate from that research opinion. And this is in two countries which have test, trace and quarantine down to an art form. If something happened, it would have been discovered.

Its a pragmatic call based on schools being a transmission centre for other viruses passing through the population.

Yes, there are some studies indicating that it has little effect on death rates, but even those note it can have a substantial effect on ICU admissions:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

....

Really, ICL should have presented sensitivities to their assumptions. Not great quality work.

Nope not great work, in fact the Imperial College report is a stand out discredited report which was not peer reviewed.

There are studies on SARS that indicate they may only have a small effect.

But - I'd want to be very sure of that before reopening. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. For instance, you have this:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article

]We found a sharply increasing proportion of infected children (from 2% before January 24 to 13% for January 25–February 5; p<0.001), implying that increased exposure for children and intrafamily transmission might contribute substantially to the epidemic.

A summary quote from a short report  which says   "might contribute to"   is indeed very weak.

Ireland has a grossly inefficient test program (test & result).  Though Fine Gael are seamlessly very good at imposing martial law on the plebs,  they are at a convincing loss persuading how a society can gradually proceed out of a full lock down. So yes I can appreciate there are genuine public confidence issues when it comes to opening schools in a continued atmosphere of inefficiency and new infections.
In a real world experiment.
Finland, a country in lock down allowed kindergartens to be open as well as  primary 1st 2nd and 3rd grade,  But attendance is voluntary.
https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/corona-has-been-found-in-18-kindergartens-in-helsinki/20200421191343005422.html
Some infections were found with teachers (contracted outside school),  but in general it went well.  At all times, teachers/carers were advised to follow the social distancing. Unlike Ireland and UK, Finland are  pro-active with testing and same day results for such employees. There was no deviation from the general consensus in Finland that children were not at threat in school and were not a source of contagion outside and at home.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Ireland has a grossly inefficient test program (test & result). 

In which case our best option is to observe a country better setup and let them lead the way and learn from their experience rather than make our own mistakes.


Post #4763 link 2 was probably a bit more conclusive:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/04/science.abb8001

We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40-60% and delay the epidemic.

[omaghjoe]

Found this website to have some useful graphing of the epidemic

This graph especially to compare different countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+USA+GBR+KOR+DEU+IRL

[Maroon Manc]

No we wouldn't have been fine but we would have saved thousands of life's
Hindsight? Did you not see what was happening in Italy? We were basically given a 3 week window
From the very start the word was it will ravage the elderly and people with underlying health issues.
That was everywhere you looked on tv
Hindsight doesn't work for this one I'm afraid as everyone knew what was coming over the hill

Any sign of the proof that kids don't get it or spread it smurfy?

Or are you now admitting they can do both?

What are kids  0-18 years ?

1300 odd deaths in 26 ,  around 1100 had underlying health condition .  Houlahan said it yesterday obviously with exact numbers .

How many deaths in them 1300 were even under 40 years old ? Pretty sure I heard a figure last week when death toll was around 1000 that it was a total of 14 people under the age of 40 .

Every life matters no matter what but these stats we are hearing from all over all indicates that nursing homes should of been priority. Over 700 of death toll were in nursing homes .

We need to see more statistics, for example how many hospital admissions are healthy and lets say under 55 ?

The Italians a while ago were excellent at releasing stats on those who died, haven't seen anything from the UK or Ireland like this apart from the average of someone dying to be 84 in Ireland. I think there's been one death of someone under 18 who apparenlty had no underlying health issues in the UK. They estimate that somewhere between 5-10% of the population in the UK have it but if for arguments sake we say its 5% then equate that to 21% of the population who are under 18 then you're looking at one person under 18 out of nearly 700,000 who've likely contracted it has died whom had no underlying health issues.

Its fairly damm obvious that its not an issue for the youth.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Its fairly damm obvious that its not an issue for the youth.

That is entirely irrelevant! Its beyond clear at this point that the risk to younger folks is much reduced.

The problem is them getting it and then bringing it home to someone who is affected much more drastically. Whether to parents or to grandparents.

That is why schools are closed - to mostly protect the teachers and parents/grandparents of the kids, not the kids themselves.