China Coronavirus

[trailer]

Can't help but notice the Swedes missing from this with their interesting approach.

That list is nonsense. And it isn't a question of what is the best approach, more what you can do with a population who can act responsibly.
Fwiw, despite the Swedes being very slow to recommend self isolation for returnees to the country, very  slow to inform close knit immigrant communities in Stockholm  in their own language about the health info,  they are doing reasonably with their approach. Ireland are just next to to Swedan in the deaths per population table, doing quite poorly and struggling despite the martial law lock down approach.
Another country I mentioned was Iceland  https://www.covid.is/data who have a similar approach to Sweden, there is no lock down,  they have detected a high rate of infections per population but have managed to contain it without a lock down, their peak is well in the past, and they they're preparing for a controlled responsible normality in the next 2 weeks. No roll of the dice as some uninformed folks like to label it.

The data in Ireland is poor, there is no table numbering the recovered. How on earth can one measure the real progress if any,  if you can't compare the numbers of recovered  to the numbers of  live infected?

Recovery doesn't sell fear presumably.

I'm also still continuing to search for data on smokers with this disease from any country, but it's not forthcoming. Why?

No argument with the point in bold, perfectly fair question to ask.

We have a limited testing capacity so can't retest everyone to prove they recovered. The number of people being released from ICU is published however.

I heard yesterday they're low on swabs in the Mayo test centres and will only be testing health care workers for the next few days at least.

This is another example of the WHO's failed strategy. Test! Test! Test!. When there isn't enough PPE, Swabs, testing kits, lab capacity. Their strategy should surely be based around what can be delivered? Developed nations haven't enough of this gear never mind other less developed nations. It really appears to be clown o'clock with these guys.

You expect the WHO to understand the supply chain around all elements of PPE? They layout what is needed, governments need to make it happen. How can Conor McGregor buy PPE and the HSE cant?

I expect them to do their f**king job. At this moment in time they aren't .They're failing miserably and yet they get millions every year. Testing for the disease now at this stage would appear pointless. Testing and isolating should've been the advice in Jan. Screening travellers, closing borders etc. Now the virus is everywhere. In all corners of the world. The only tests that now matter is the test to see if you've had the virus. That's the focus. Everything else is window dressing. WHO would be better focusing its energy on sorting out it's early warning systems and reorganising internally. Telling countries what to do now makes them look like clowns, especially when the advice is to simply test.

Seriously? That is a ridiculous statement. The more positive cases you can identify the quicker you can isolate them and stop them spreading it. I can't believe this has to be explained at this stage. Id be taking your "in-depth" criticism of WHO with a pinch of salt.

Yes. But we can't test for positive cases and therefore we can't isolate them. We're past that stage for God's sake. Long past it. The WHO should've been telling us to do that in Jan instead of telling us everything was fine and the Chinese were on top of it.

I dont agree with you at all. The WHO gave timely sound advice. Muppets like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump ignored the advise. As this is the first world wide Pandemic since the early 1900's I think it is fair to say the WHO have done quite a good job in general. We all know who has let this thing get out of control.

It's out of control in Italy, Spain, France, UK, USA, Iran and lots of other nations. It's not all Donald Trump and Boris Johnson's fault.
The WHO have been found out.

[Rossfan]

Time to put Trailer in charge of dealing with this Virus..
...or would Karen on facebook do a better job?

[Rossfan]

And talking about experts... where would we be without these pair?
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/journalists-bring-court-challenge-against-constitutionality-of-covid-19-laws-994205.html

[RadioGAAGAA]

And talking about experts... where would we be without these pair?
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/journalists-bring-court-challenge-against-constitutionality-of-covid-19-laws-994205.html

and the daft judge that didn't throw it straight out the door.

Any wonder drunk adults try and sue for falling off swings when the judiciary is full of idiots with no cop-on.

[armaghniac]

Not good. If you presume the 657 cases are people who got it fairly recently, then they got it after the measures started and some of these might be dying in a fortnight. Probably, the German cases are quite old.
But there is still more to be done.

38 more people have died from Covid-19 in the State, bringing the overall death toll to 444.

657  more cases of the coronavirus have also been diagnosed in the Republic. In addition, a further 411 cases of coronavirus were confirmed from the backlog of tests at the laboratory in Germany.

[Captain Obvious]

Not good. If you presume the 657 cases are people who got it fairly recently, then they got it after the measures started and some of these might be dying in a fortnight. Probably, the German cases are quite old.
But there is still more to be done.

38 more people have died from Covid-19 in the State, bringing the overall death toll to 444.

657  more cases of the coronavirus have also been diagnosed in the Republic. In addition, a further 411 cases of coronavirus were confirmed from the backlog of tests at the laboratory in Germany.

Any break down on the deaths per county or are they sticking to east, west and north west when reporting deaths?

The 6 counties at 140 confirmed deaths but are only counting Hospital deaths. 14,635 confirmed cases on the island of Ireland.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Not good.

Definitely not good.

I see nothing there that would signify transmission rates are dropping.

The spike on 10th April and days thereafter is due to the addition of results coming back from labs in Germany. Which indicates known infections are very much testing constrained - more tests done quicker are needed for a better picture.


There will be no lifting of the lockdown for a good while yet.

[armaghniac]

Not good.

Definitely not good.



I see nothing there that would signify transmission rates are dropping.

The spike on 10th April and days thereafter is due to the addition of results coming back from labs in Germany. Which indicates known infections are very much testing constrained - more tests done quicker are needed for a better picture.


There will be no lifting of the lockdown for a good while yet.

We need to know the time element in this. Hopefully by next week test results will be constant 2 days or whatever and we can plan on that basis. Schools have been closed for four and half weeks now.

[Milltown Row2]

So when will lockdown measures start showing an improvement? 7/8 weeks?

[J70]

So when will lockdown measures start showing an improvement? 7/8 weeks?

We're a month into it in NY and things have levelled off in the past week, albeit at a high level.

Hospitalization and intensive care rates are now starting to decline though.

[imtommygunn]

How long are we into it? I barely even know what day of the week it is any more... I think this is my fourth week working from home and it was only a week in we went into lockdown so 3 weeks?

I would expect a few extensions to this yet. I would hope to be out of it by end of June. If they go too soon it will just get worse so I would hope start of June earliest. Imo numbers should be really dropping before things open up again.

[RadioGAAGAA]

So when will lockdown measures start showing an improvement? 7/8 weeks?

Given a formal lockdown was started around 2 weeks ago and an informal lockdown was ramping up for a week or two before then, we really should have started to see some evidence of it by now.

Broadly speaking, it goes something like (after exposure to virus):
- 1st week, no symptoms, unsure of spreading potential, initial thoughts were not, now its uncertain
- early 2nd week, symptoms show, definite spreader potential from this point onward
- late 2nd, early 3rd week, hospitalisation if required
- late 3rd week to 4th week, average critical week for survival if symptoms are acute

So, we're something like 14-28 weeks into effective social distancing (depending where you deem the start line), so really should hitting the bolded line above, where I expect most testing here is done (when someone is coughing like f**k with a fever).

Of course, with testing coverage being so poor, and no doubt the positive results not being back-dated to when the tests were taken, a real picture is hard to ascertain.

If the picture is accurate, then lockdown isn't working. At which point a greater analysis of who is testing positive and how they got the virus is needed - which is where testing and contract tracing comes in.

If we can figure out how its spreading, then we can put in place measures to protect everyone.

For instance - if someone has got it and the only place they've been in the past 4 weeks is the supermarket down the road - its self-explanatory how they got it. Then is that supermarket adhering to recommendations? If so, that'd mean the recommendations are insufficient. Or what about workers at the supermarket, are they asymptomatic carriers?

[trailer]

No sign of the death figures being anywhere near what's expected in NI. We heard of "sobering" numbers. It's week 4 of the lockdown. Should people start to get ready for Schools reopening and going back to work? I know they've announced an extension but I would imagine that'll be it.

An aside. Furlough is brilliant and welcomed, but the longer the economy stagnates employees could find themselves being made redundant at the end of that 3 month scheme. Do not expect the economy to start right up again. I was shocked when someone thought the factory he worked in expected him to just take these 3 months as a holiday and that his job would be there and everything back to normal. When I pointed out this might not be the case he was kind of shocked and thought I was being stupid. 
Certainly anyone in the entertainment industry should expect to made redundant.

[imtommygunn]

Yes radiogaagaa I would be hopeful to see more tracing too. There are people being careful still getting this and it is important to know how to prevent it. I do wonder about some old people etc and where they have been to get it. Still worries me.

[armaghniac]

So when will lockdown measures start showing an improvement? 7/8 weeks?

Given a formal lockdown was started around 2 weeks ago and an informal lockdown was ramping up for a week or two before then, we really should have started to see some evidence of it by now.

Broadly speaking, it goes something like (after exposure to virus):
- 1st week, no symptoms, unsure of spreading potential, initial thoughts were not, now its uncertain
- early 2nd week, symptoms show, definite spreader potential from this point onward
- late 2nd, early 3rd week, hospitalisation if required
- late 3rd week to 4th week, average critical week for survival if symptoms are acute

So, we're something like 14-28 weeks into effective social distancing (depending where you deem the start line), so really should hitting the bolded line above, where I expect most testing here is done (when someone is coughing like f**k with a fever).

Of course, with testing coverage being so poor, and no doubt the positive results not being back-dated to when the tests were taken, a real picture is hard to ascertain.

If the picture is accurate, then lockdown isn't working. At which point a greater analysis of who is testing positive and how they got the virus is needed - which is where testing and contract tracing comes in.

If we can figure out how its spreading, then we can put in place measures to protect everyone.

For instance - if someone has got it and the only place they've been in the past 4 weeks is the supermarket down the road - its self-explanatory how they got it. Then is that supermarket adhering to recommendations? If so, that'd mean the recommendations are insufficient. Or what about workers at the supermarket, are they asymptomatic carriers?

There was a report today of study by a  Hong Kong university in China. They reckon 40% of transmission is before people get symptoms and people are more likely to transmit the virus the day before symptoms appear. This makes it very hard to deal with it.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/more-than-two-fifths-of-coronavirus-transmissions-occur-before-symptoms-show-994196.html