China Coronavirus

[theticklemister]

What virus? Seen video footage of Liverpool city centre partying like it was 1999 yesterday. Thousands in Concert Sq, in the pubs and clubs.

I was in me bed

[Itchy]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

[Milltown Row2]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

Dangerous language ? How many people do you actually think take the advice of complete strangers with no real background in this, seriously?

[Solo_run]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

Dangerous language ? How many people do you actually think take the advice of complete strangers with no real background in this, seriously?

You would be surprised how many would.

There are people out there who think mental health is not a real issue.

There are people who are more likely to take advice from someone on the pub rather than a doctor.

[Maroon Manc]

The government over here are going to have to do more, don't even want to think about how many people who are renting and on zero hours contracts; They'll be let go immediately and the knock on affect financially will be staggering, its a viscous cycle that needs addressing immediately.

[theticklemister]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

Dangerous language ? How many people do you actually think take the advice of complete strangers with no real background in this, seriously?

For the last ten years I've to this board for advice and news before any media company

[armaghniac]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

China had
79932 cases on March 1
81003 cases on March 15

Officially of course  doesn't stack up.

All about the PR.

South Korea had less new cases yesterday than Australia. Is this because they have taking measures or are they just faking the stats?

[Walter Cronc]

China isn't finished. Once they release the lockdown they'll have more cases, although they'll be watching out for them this time.

You could only clear the thing by testing everyone and then by testing or quarantining arrivals at airports.

China had
79932 cases on March 1
81003 cases on March 15

Officially of course  doesn't stack up.

All about the PR.

South Korea had less new cases yesterday than Australia. Is this because they have taking measures or are they just faking the stats?

They may well be cooking the books but going by their Foreign Minister on BBC they are carrying out serious testing and tracking including the use of apps. They are much more advanced technologically than most/if not all European countries.

[Rossfan]

Itchy must think Seafóid is a right Oracle!!

[Milltown Row2]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

Dangerous language ? How many people do you actually think take the advice of complete strangers with no real background in this, seriously?

For the last ten years I've to this board for advice and news before any media company

so you'll take advice on medical issues? there are some professional medics on here and ive taken on some advice, but I'll ask a doctor

[armaghniac]

They may well be cooking the books but going by their Foreign Minister on BBC they are carrying out serious testing and tracking including the use of apps. They are much more advanced technologically than most/if not all European countries.

Apps and analytics have a role to play, but most of this hard graft,; testing and contact tracing. In Italy, in Vò, one of the first hard hit towns, they eliminated the pox from the whole town by testing everyone.

[Captain Obvious]

If these idiots can make a u-turn so can you seafoid.
https://mobile.twitter.com/newschambers/status/1240173030787211274

[RadioGAAGAA]

They may well be cooking the books but going by their Foreign Minister on BBC they are carrying out serious testing and tracking including the use of apps. They are much more advanced technologically than most/if not all European countries.

Apps and analytics have a role to play, but most of this hard graft,; testing and contact tracing. In Italy, in Vò, one of the first hard hit towns, they eliminated the pox from the whole town by testing everyone.

I think the apps etc help in contract tracing.

[theticklemister]

Relative to.the commonly accepted definition of a pandemic.
Mortality 150% of the usual.

It looks like being nowhere near that..

Obviously we need to reduce infection rates but I honestly think the level of panic is overdone.

150% of the usual what?

If mortality rate of "usual" flu is 0.1%, and COVID-19 is 1%, then that is 1000% of "the usual". Current estimates are COVID-19 has mortality rate nearer 5%, so just the 5000% of "the usual" - assuming you are using flu as your yardstick for "the usual".

Usual death rate of the population for everything.
Flu wouldn't be the top cause of death most years.

Smoking kills more people than coronavirus.

So you are defining a pandemic as something that has a significantly higher kill rate than everything else combined?

No definition of pandemic that I've seen includes such qualifications.

Pandemic is an ominous world. The issue is fear.
Proportionality goes out the window.
Maybe we need a pandemic scale similar to what exists for hurricanes.

If the Spanish flu was a 10 this might be a 3

Based on what? Spanish Flu was in a different time and place, different levels of medicine, treatment, poverty etc. That doesnt mean it was more than 3 times more potent than Covid-19. You are using very dangerous language on here down playing the seriousness of this situation. You should stop before you cause harm.

Dangerous language ? How many people do you actually think take the advice of complete strangers with no real background in this, seriously?

For the last ten years I've to this board for advice and news before any media company

so you'll take advice on medical issues? there are some professional medics on here and ive taken on some advice, but I'll ask a doctor

Ah jesus lad, tongue-in-cheek. If we don't have a clue about the inside mark on this board; then we're fucked to when it determines a sprained finger for fucksake.

[seafoid]

UK latest


Sir Patrick Vallance
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-hospitalisation-rates-revealed-80-per-cent-infected/


Up to 30 per cent of people who are hospitalised due to the coronavirus will need intensive care, a stark report has warned, as cases in the UK near 2,000

Close to five per cent of the UK population will need to be treated in hospital for an average of 10 days during the epidemic, and almost a third of these people will need intensive care.

In the new modelling, produced by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, hospitalisation rates are dramatically worse than those previously announced by the Government.
This is due to the "refinement of estimates of likely intensive care unit demand due to Covid-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK," the report says.
Previous predictions assumed that demand would be 50 per cent lower than experts now expect. But updated data from Britain and Italy - where hospitals have been overwhelmed and 2,158 people have died - have demonstrated that previous assumptions, based on experience with viral pneumonia, were far too low.
The NHS has also provided increasing certainty about the limitations of hospital surge capacity, revealing that the UK does not have nearly enough resources.
"Mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over," the study says - estimating that even under the most optimistic scenario, bed requirements will be exceeded at least eight-fold.
This could also have devastating consequences for the fatality rate. Based on data currently available, 9.3 per cent of patients 80 or over and 5.1 per cent of those aged 70-79 will die from Covid-19, even if they received hospital treatment.