Middle East landscape rapidly changing

[illdecide]

World War 3 coming lads...

[seafoid]

Things heating up a bit after Turkey shoots down a Russian jet close to the Syrian border an hour ago:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates

Looks like this is spiraling out in all sorts of directions!!

Dave Cameron should be looking to keep British jets out of the airways for a while yet if he's any sense!

For me, in recent years Turkey has, to a certain degree, assumed the role of the true litmus test for what way the Muslim world is going. Recent political developments along with incidents like this do not fill me with great confidence.

Turkey is a bit of an outlier - Muslim but nato member.

[GJL]

I know quite a few people with Turkish holiday homes. 

[seafoid]

This is very good
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/43b0bb72-91f1-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html

Europeans must realise that our real enemy is not Isis; it is the state of chaos and breakdown in the Levant. Nothing they have yet proposed stands the slightest chance of ending it.

[periere]

Turkey are an outlier for the NATO reason but for other reasons as well .  Many of the usual excuses don't apply. They have much more agency over their own destiny so hopefully they will make good choices.

P.S. the ft link is behind a paywall.

[seafoid]

Turkey are an outlier for the NATO reason but for other reasons as well .  Many of the usual excuses don't apply. They have much more agency over their own destiny so hopefully they will make good choices.

P.S. the ft link is behind a paywall.

We feel Europe's fear — and need its help

Jamal Khashoggi


Europeans are scared, and so are we in Saudi Arabia, for the jihadis of Isis also threaten us. The attackers in Paris claimed to be targeting civilians in revenge for the actions of the French government. Saudi Arabia has also taken part in air strikes against the group and there can be little doubt that Isis could target civilians in Jeddah, too.

Yet in addition to Isis, Arabs are menaced by a more pervasive threat — the state of chaos and collapse that is creeping across our world — which Europeans do not see as easily. Our victims are greater in number and their murderers are more diverse. Along with Isis, the killers include the oppressive regimes that Isis says it is out to avenge.


This broader chaos is connected to the threat we confront jointly with the west; indeed, it is what has given rise to it. The seemingly endless list of Arab victims stirs a fear of the future, which jihadis have learnt to exploit. Under the banner of revenge, they recruit the people who torment us all.

Consider what lies behind these fears. There is the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, which has been killing its own people for four years. There is the Shia militia that is pouring into Syria to fight the Sunni majority's revolt against oppressive minority rule. There is the prospect that Iraq might once again be governed by a sectarian government backed by a merciless militia. There are the tens of thousands of people detained in prisons across the Arab world, the shooting of peaceful demonstrators, the broader abolition of civil rights.

Isis is the result of ignoring the hopes of the Arab people whose desire for democracy, justice and decent living conditions gave rise to the Arab spring four years ago.

This is something that must be understood if the present danger is to be tackled. Europeans still focus on Isis as the enemy. That is Russia's interpretation of the crisis, too, and many Europeans wish the US and Russia would unite to face the jihadis. Their analysis suggests a simple remedy — fight Isis — rather than a more comprehensive approach that would deal with chaos across the Middle East, tackling the cause that has unleashed the militants.


It is time for Europe to come back and to join forces with local powers to fix the Middle East

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If Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed caliph of the "Islamic State", were killed in an air strike, many would rejoice in France and beyond. But the movement is bigger than Mr Baghdadi. Isis has a large stock of men who have memorised their Koranic verses and are ready to climb the podium and declare themselves caliph.

Isis does not want democracy or freedom. But, to many whose hopes have withered in the past four years — whose present options are to live under tyranny or risk life and limb trying to reach Europe by boat — this abhorrent movement is becoming an attractive alternative. It does not deserve to.

The modern Middle East was created by Europe a century ago. It is time for Europe to come back and to join forces with local powers to fix it. We in the Middle East do not yearn for a return to imperialist times but we need to work together to end the refugee crisis and defeat the terrorists.


Our real enemy is not Isis; it is the state of chaos and breakdown in the Levant

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What is necessary is for Europe to form an alliance with the capable countries in the region to halt Isis and to halt the chaos that is breeding more jihadi fighters. No country — Saudi Arabia, France or America — wants to send its army to fight in Syria. That leaves us with Syrians from various rebel groups. An army of Muslims is armed and willing to join the fight but they need support, organisation and air power. This is a way out of the current crisis that has been overlooked.

Two local powers, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are capable and willing to intervene but, like Europe, they are waiting for America to lead. The three should stop hesitating and instead form an alliance, and there is a strong chance they could then bring the US with them. They should start by building a democratic Syria whose fighters will be the power needed to destroy Isis.

Riyadh has called for a secular, democratic Syria. That seems strange to some, since Saudi Arabia is neither democratic nor secular. The kingdom's rulers are realists, however. They know that Syria, a pluralistic country whose people have revolted for freedom, will not accept the Salafist Islamic government that some groups are calling for there. Nor will the people accept the continuation of oppressive minority rule.

Europeans must realise that our real enemy is not Isis; it is the state of chaos and breakdown in the Levant. Nothing they have yet proposed stands the slightest chance of ending it.

[seafoid]

. Bohttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b41ea92e-913c-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html

"Russia and Isis pursue a strategy that has become known as "hybrid warfare", using a mixture of deception, coercion, corruption, subversion, ideology and third-party provocation to weaken targets in all corners of society. "Hybrid warfare" is now official Russian doctrine. As we saw in Crimea and Ukraine, Russia turns to military action last of all, when the battle is already largely won. The details are different, but Isis mirrors this hybrid approach. "

[periere]

Sorry, I just don't buy it (the Khasoggi article). Eventually countries in the ME will have to take the lead in sorting out the problems in their own countries. Of course Europe, Russia and China have a role to play but it is common sense that ME countries  understand the intricacies better than anyone else and there is no point in the US being involved if their presence is so polarizing and toxic to so many. It just makes it easier to disengage. Why cant Saudi, Turkey and Iran lead the way and Europe/Russia/China can facilitate ?

I agree that Arab people desire justice and decent living however I am not sure about the desire for democracy bit ...? Is this really a true statement ?  Is their any poll data across all segments and for each country that supports this assertion ? (and yes, I know it's hard to do polls in oppressive countries but we have to start somewhere)

[muppet]

Sorry, I just don't buy it (the Khasoggi article). Eventually countries in the ME will have to take the lead in sorting out the problems in their own countries. Of course Europe, Russia and China have a role to play but it is common sense that ME countries  understand the intricacies better than anyone else and there is no point in the US being involved if their presence is so polarizing and toxic to so many. It just makes it easier to disengage. Why cant Saudi, Turkey and Iran lead the way and Europe/Russia/China can facilitate ?

I agree that Arab people desire justice and decent living however I am not sure about the desire for democracy bit ...? Is this really a true statement ?  Is their any poll data across all segments and for each country that supports this assertion ? (and yes, I know it's hard to do polls in oppressive countries but we have to start somewhere)

Exactly, it is not as if the trips to Iraq and Afghanistan were roaring successes. Also trying to impose a western style democracy in those places is nuts.

This Shia/Sunni issue seems to be similar to the Catholic/Protestant conflicts elsewhere. Straight democracy wasn't the wisest in the wee 6 for example. Once you have a winner, then you quickly have minority losers.

As for the question in bold, the answer simply seems to be because they can't see past their own interests. After Paris, much of Europe's interest in the region will have changed, and not for the better.

[seafoid]

Sorry, I just don't buy it (the Khasoggi article). Eventually countries in the ME will have to take the lead in sorting out the problems in their own countries. Of course Europe, Russia and China have a role to play but it is common sense that ME countries  understand the intricacies better than anyone else and there is no point in the US being involved if their presence is so polarizing and toxic to so many. It just makes it easier to disengage. Why cant Saudi, Turkey and Iran lead the way and Europe/Russia/China can facilitate ?

I agree that Arab people desire justice and decent living however I am not sure about the desire for democracy bit ...? Is this really a true statement ?  Is their any poll data across all segments and for each country that supports this assertion ? (and yes, I know it's hard to do polls in oppressive countries but we have to start somewhere)

Exactly, it is not as if the trips to Iraq and Afghanistan were roaring successes. Also trying to impose a western style democracy in those places is nuts.

This Shia/Sunni issue seems to be similar to the Catholic/Protestant conflicts elsewhere. Straight democracy wasn't the wisest in the wee 6 for example. Once you have a winner, then you quickly have minority losers.

As for the question in bold, the answer simply seems to be because they can't see past their own interests. After Paris, much of Europe's interest in the region will have changed, and not for the better.

The Sunni/Shia thing might quieten down if Iran makes a rapprochement with the West.

[periere]

There needs to be more details on the alternatives to "western style democracy" or "straight democracy" that would be acceptable. My feeling is that the answer you would get from the majority would not resemble anything that we would call  democracy.

..and that's fine by me... but everybody needs to be clear on what they actually want.  We need to remove the excuses. If the US is out of the picture and it ends up that the majority want some variant of theocratic or autocratic rule then people in the west need to get their heads around that. It means we will have to deal with and, crucially, trade with whatever "government" they choose. 

imo they will never achieve their socio-economic goals without western style democracy/capitalism but I'd be open to any alternative , evidence based ideas that are coming out of the ME. Are there any economists in the ME that are advocating new economic theories that are ideally suited to ME societies ?

[muppet]

There needs to be more details on the alternatives to "western style democracy" or "straight democracy" that would be acceptable. My feeling is that the answer you would get from the majority would not resemble anything that we would call  democracy.

..and that's fine by me... but everybody needs to be clear on what they actually want.  We need to remove the excuses. If the US is out of the picture and it ends up that the majority want some variant of theocratic or autocratic rule then people in the west need to get their heads around that. It means we will have to deal with and, crucially, trade with whatever "government" they choose. 

imo they will never achieve their socio-economic goals without western style democracy/capitalism but I'd be open to any alternative , evidence based ideas that are coming out of the ME. Are there any economists in the ME that are advocating new economic theories that are ideally suited to ME societies ?

The options for leadership historically only seem to be Royalty, Religious or Military. None of them are suitable in my opinion. There are so many ethnic groups and vested interested that, say, a NI type solution, of First Minister, Deputy FM, Assistant DFM etc would appear chaotic and unworkable. So it is hard to see what sort of solution could work.

Maybe the area has to be divided into many smaller regions or cantons or whatever and end the big ethnically complex states we have at the moment.

[seafoid]

There needs to be more details on the alternatives to "western style democracy" or "straight democracy" that would be acceptable. My feeling is that the answer you would get from the majority would not resemble anything that we would call  democracy.

..and that's fine by me... but everybody needs to be clear on what they actually want.  We need to remove the excuses. If the US is out of the picture and it ends up that the majority want some variant of theocratic or autocratic rule then people in the west need to get their heads around that. It means we will have to deal with and, crucially, trade with whatever "government" they choose. 

imo they will never achieve their socio-economic goals without western style democracy/capitalism but I'd be open to any alternative , evidence based ideas that are coming out of the ME. Are there any economists in the ME that are advocating new economic theories that are ideally suited to ME societies ?

The options for leadership historically only seem to be Royalty, Religious or Military. None of them are suitable in my opinion. There are so many ethnic groups and vested interested that, say, a NI type solution, of First Minister, Deputy FM, Assistant DFM etc would appear chaotic and unworkable. So it is hard to see what sort of solution could work.

Maybe the area has to be divided into many smaller regions or cantons or whatever and end the big ethnically complex states we have at the moment.

Oil revenues would have to Be divided up as well.

[omaghjoe]

Things heating up a bit after Turkey shoots down a Russian jet close to the Syrian border an hour ago:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates

Looks like this is spiraling out in all sorts of directions!!

Dave Cameron should be looking to keep British jets out of the airways for a while yet if he's any sense!

For me, in recent years Turkey has, to a certain degree, assumed the role of the true litmus test for what way the Muslim world is going. Recent political developments along with incidents like this do not fill me with great confidence.

Turkey is a bit of an outlier - Muslim but nato member.

Lads what are yis on about?

Turkey an outlier of NATO? They are one of the largest and most influential miliataries in NATO

Also if I wanted to gauge what was goin to happen in Indonesia Pakistan or Bangladesh, Turkey would not be very high on the countries I would be looking for clues

[periere]

There needs to be more details on the alternatives to "western style democracy" or "straight democracy" that would be acceptable. My feeling is that the answer you would get from the majority would not resemble anything that we would call  democracy.

..and that's fine by me... but everybody needs to be clear on what they actually want.  We need to remove the excuses. If the US is out of the picture and it ends up that the majority want some variant of theocratic or autocratic rule then people in the west need to get their heads around that. It means we will have to deal with and, crucially, trade with whatever "government" they choose. 

imo they will never achieve their socio-economic goals without western style democracy/capitalism but I'd be open to any alternative , evidence based ideas that are coming out of the ME. Are there any economists in the ME that are advocating new economic theories that are ideally suited to ME societies ?

The options for leadership historically only seem to be Royalty, Religious or Military. None of them are suitable in my opinion. There are so many ethnic groups and vested interested that, say, a NI type solution, of First Minister, Deputy FM, Assistant DFM etc would appear chaotic and unworkable. So it is hard to see what sort of solution could work.

Maybe the area has to be divided into many smaller regions or cantons or whatever and end the big ethnically complex states we have at the moment.

The problem is that if peoples primary identity is religious then the canton approach will never work. As long as whatever happens in Palestine or Syria is more important to the daily life of the average Moroccan than his failing crop or his sons employment prospects then the region is doomed.

The ME is the probably the only place where the old adage about all politics being local does not apply. This has to be addressed and only arabs/Muslims can do this.