Most likely provincial finalists

[seafoid]

Leinster

The non Dublin half of the draw has Longford, Offaly, Louth , Meath, Westmeath .  Westmeath are already in the Sam Maguire..

Munster
The non Kerry side has Cork, Clare, Limerick

Connacht
One of London, Sligo, New York, Leitrim   

Ulster
Fermanagh, Derry, Tyrone, Monaghan
and
Donegal, Down, Cavan, Antrim, Fermanagh

[Armagh18]

Ffs, I was gonna say we have a great chance, but you've kicked us out already!

[Rossfan]

Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

[seafoid]

Kildare have to beat Louth on Sunday.
Louth could get to the Leinster final and be relegated.

I'd say there'll be 2 or max 3 D3/4 in the Sam. Westmeath, +  1 from Connacht and possibly one from Leinster.
D2 position 5 should be okay. Position 6 depends.

[FermGael]

Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout

[seafoid]

Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout

The groups of 4 will be seeded

[Armagh18]

Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout

Kerry and Dublin won't because they'll breeze through regardless. The 3 Connacht teams have all won it fairly recently so may have eyes on a bigger prize, although the Rossies realistically won't win Sam so should be going for silverware. Ulster championship still means something though and would be goal number one for Armagh this year I'd like to think, given our performances this past long time have been nowhere near good enough. None of the Ulster teams are realistically going to win Sam so the anglo celt is the next best thing.

[yellowcard]

Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

[weareros]

Kildare have to beat Louth on Sunday.
Louth could get to the Leinster final and be relegated.

I'd say there'll be 2 or max 3 D3/4 in the Sam. Westmeath, +  1 from Connacht and possibly one from Leinster.
D2 position 5 should be okay. Position 6 depends.

More than that.
1 from Munster guaranteed.
2 from Leinster guaranteed (though Dublin promoted)
1 from Connacht guaranteed.
1 from Ulster on current form (though Derry will be promoted). But could be 2 with some of the current form displayed by Div 1 teams.
Those not getting promoted fron Divsion 2 will be left sweating as many Div 1 teams will require the 7 ranked spots to make the group stages.

Sorry the above analysis is based on non-Div 1 teams making provincials. Only Kerry and 1 of Mayo/Galway/Ros are certain to qualify for group stages by qualifying for a provincial final.

[Eire90]

be interesting at what intensity and hype will provincials be played at  like tyrone are still going to be in the last 16 of all ireland even if they get knocked out in ulster first round but i think seeding will be important so you want to win provincial or get too final.

[Eire90]

is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.

[Smokin Joe]

is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.

In theory it is possible, although highly unlikely.
The greater number of provincial finalists that come from Div 3 or 4 the less Div 2 (and in theory, ultimately, Div 1) teams will make the Sam Maguire based on their league placings.

[seafoid]

is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.

Not this year but if the current trajectory continues, maybe next year.

[Itchy]

Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

Well if Cavan would have no choice competing for Sam and thats some sort of pre-requisite then I think we can cut down the All Ireland Series to 4/5 teams as theres only Dublin in Leinster, Kerry in Munster, Galway and Mayo in Connacht and is there even anyone in Ulster - Maybe Derry.

[Dreadnought]

Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens