Brexit.

[Sweeper 123]

so the deal looks likely to be voted down - what does that mean and what happens next - do we leave with a no deal / do we renegotiate - there is a stalemate a brewing - EU not moving and UK govt not for approving it

[imtommygunn]

She was never getting that through.

No deal / second referendum with it being more likely to be the former. If she doesn't get that through I'd say she is toast too.

[seafoid]

so the deal looks likely to be voted down - what does that mean and what happens next - do we leave with a no deal / do we renegotiate - there is a stalemate a brewing - EU not moving and UK govt not for approving it

Brexit is a complete disaster. I am so glad the DUP are up to their necks in it.

1. "The informed Brexit question is what happens after Parliament votes against the PM's deal. The answer is we don't know what the PM will do. That fact that one non-collegial PM has that power explains a lot about why we're in the mess we are
"

2. Www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-25/stocks-tumble-the-fed-won-t-bail-out-markets-this-time

Capital Economics produced a range which captured most all of them. That was the basis for the following list, to which I added a few:

   1   Parliament votes next month to ratify the agreement with the EU, as presented this month by May. Britain leaves the EU in March on schedule. Everyone lives happily ever after.

   2   Parliament votes down the deal, which seems far more likely as none of the opposition parties likes it, and they are in a majority. May goes back to Brussels, obtains some significant concessions (highly unlikely) or some cosmetic concessions that are enough to placate the Brexiteer wing of her own party (slightly less unlikely). Parliament votes in favor of the deal at a second attempt, probably after the Christmas holidays. After some brinkmanship, everyone lives happily ever after.

   3   Parliament votes down the deal twice. At that point, May is ousted. She has said that there will be no second referendum while she is prime minister. Parliament votes to put the matter to the country, in a "People's Vote" — or second referendum — which includes the option to stay in the EU and cancel Brexit. The British public decides to stay in the EU after all (nowhere near a given, but the polls that were inaccurate before do now show a lead for "Remain"). Britain's long national nightmare is over. A very large chunk of the population, having voted twice to leave the EU, feels unforgivably cheated. Note that it will scarcely be possible to organize this referendum before the exit date in March, and that this relies on May to call the referendum before she stands down, so the EU will have to agree to let the U.K. delay its leaving date. It is likely that they would do this, but not a given.

   4   Parliament votes down the deal twice, and the EU declines to give May the time to hold a referendum (or Parliament declines to pass legislation to enable a referendum). May now negotiates a wholly new deal in two months, probably based on Norway or Canada's relationship with the EU. This is possible, but not likely as it would certainly require far more flexibility on all sides than anyone has shown so far. The issue of the Irish border remains a sticking point. Neither Norway nor Canada has a land border with the U.K. to provide a precedent. A variation on this is that May falls, she is replaced by another Conservative after a few days in a way that make "House of Cards" and "Game of Thrones" look tame by comparison. Then a new leader comes in and negotiates a completely new deal in the space of barely more than a month. Some seem to think this is possible; I do not

   5   Parliament votes down the deal twice, and May accepts the inevitable. The U.K. leaves the EU without a negotiated settlement, and a brief whirlwind of activity averts a few disaster scenarios — for example, thrashing out a way for Heathrow Airport and the port at Dover to keep operating. The problem with this, as Capital Economics points out, is that if MPs agree on anything, it's that a "no-deal" exit would be a bad idea.


   6   Parliament votes down the deal twice, chaos reigns, the EU and the U.K lose all lingering respect for each other, and the U.K. crashes out of the EU with no practical agreements in place for the future. (And yes, this option is plainly the worst, but also sounds like one of the most plausible.)


   7   Having been defeated twice in Parliament, May calls a general election. Brexit is put to the country, and an incoming Labour government agrees a somewhat softer version of Brexit (having presumably been granted extra time by the EU). This assumes that Labour wins (likely but in no way a given), and that the MPs for the Conservatives and Northern Irish Unionists who stand to lose the most from an election agree to hold it.

   8   May goes to the country. The result is as inconclusive as the last one. Neither of the main parties had a clear policy on Brexit, and neither has a majority, so nobody has a mandate to negotiate anything with the EU. Britain sinks beneath the waves, much to the relief of our continental cousins.

[north_antrim_hound]

so the deal looks likely to be voted down - what does that mean and what happens next - do we leave with a no deal / do we renegotiate - there is a stalemate a brewing - EU not moving and UK govt not for approving it

How can you have a stalemate when the EU don't care what way the UK leave.
As far as the EU are concerned the more economical mayhem for the UK the better. People forget that France and Italy are watching Brexit very closely to observe the financial implications by leaving in the future.  Juncker and co will ensure any deal is going to be detrimental for the UK to act as a deterrent.
The self importance of the UKs stance as a trading super power is laughable. Only one loser here and it isn't the EU. Article 50 has been triggered leaving any negotiating harder. Calling an election and then having to snuggle up to the DUP (Brexit by our deluded no comprise demands) was the final nail. You couldn't f..k it up any more if you tried.

[BennyCake]

This is a pretty good summary:

A SHORT HISTORY OF BRITAIN AND THE EU

UK: We want a rebate on the fees.
EU: OK.

UK: We don't want to be in the Euro.
EU: OK.

UK: We don't want to be in Shengen.
EU: OK.

UK: We want a restriction on benefits until people have worked here for some time.
EU: OK.

UK: We want to stop child benefit being paid for children who aren't in the UK.
EU: OK.

UK: We want to kick out people who come here but don't work and can't afford to support themselves.
EU: That's fine, you already can.

UK: We want loads of preferential treatment that other countries don't get.
EU: Errr, we can't really give that without everyone agreeing.

UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave.
EU: That's a bit of an over-reaction, but your choice.

UK: OK we're leaving.
EU: Bye then.

UK: Now that we're leaving, we want all the things we had before.
EU: Errr, no, it doesn't work like that.

UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave with nothing.
EU: [Scratches head] OK, umm, well, yeah.

UK: We're serious, we'll walk away with nothing to teach you a lesson.
EU: Bye (again).

UK: OK Bye bye bye
EU: Bye bye bye bye bye bye bye

[seafoid]

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/alex-kane-foster-s-leadership-career-hangs-by-a-thread-1-8717819

[Walter Cronc]

Kane. The voice of reason within Unionism

[imtommygunn]

The rumours are she is not too popular and Dodds is basically running the show(though doesn't want the leadership by all accounts). The younger members seem to have a few indiscretions among them (Hamilton definitely and possibly Pengelly) which sound like they rule them out.

Salford seems the boy they might go to next. His only crime is slagging people who went to see the pope so that would make him a hero.

I have never seen another person look so much older than they actually are. He's supposed to be mid thirties.

[mouview]

This is a pretty good summary:

A SHORT HISTORY OF BRITAIN AND THE EU

UK: We want a rebate on the fees.
EU: OK.

UK: We don't want to be in the Euro.
EU: OK.

UK: We don't want to be in Shengen.
EU: OK.

UK: We want a restriction on benefits until people have worked here for some time.
EU: OK.

UK: We want to stop child benefit being paid for children who aren't in the UK.
EU: OK.

UK: We want to kick out people who come here but don't work and can't afford to support themselves.
EU: That's fine, you already can.

UK: We want loads of preferential treatment that other countries don't get.
EU: Errr, we can't really give that without everyone agreeing.

UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave.
EU: That's a bit of an over-reaction, but your choice.

UK: OK we're leaving.
EU: Bye then.

UK: Now that we're leaving, we want all the things we had before.
EU: Errr, no, it doesn't work like that.

UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave with nothing.
EU: [Scratches head] OK, umm, well, yeah.

UK: We're serious, we'll walk away with nothing to teach you a lesson.
EU: Bye (again).

UK: OK Bye bye bye
EU: Bye bye bye bye bye bye bye

UK:  Hi honey, I'm home!
EU:  What kept you? Where have you been all this time?

[seafoid]

Kane. The voice of reason within Unionism

He seems to understand the big picture. It is a very good article.
Biggest Unionist crisis since the 3rd home Rule mess. The DUP don't understand. 

[armaghniac]

His only crime is slagging people who went to see the pope.

He likely posts in here, so.

[yellowcard]

The DUP have backed themselves into such a corner that I'd bet that they wish they could wind the clock back prior to the Brexit referendum when there was a lot more certaintly and little talk of sea borders and Irish unity polls.

It is amazing to think that Arlene Foster has been at the helm throughout RHI and Brexit yet still remains as leader during a time of turmoil for her party. I think it was only by a quirke of fate that allowed them to hold the power of balance in Westminster that meant she has survived all this while. There are bound to be a lot of dissenting voices within the party though over where she has taken them and she could come under more pressure over the next few months with the RHI enquiry findings due to be published and with the outcome of Brexit far from certain.
 

[armaghniac]

The DUP have backed themselves into such a corner that I'd bet that they wish they could wind the clock back prior to the Brexit referendum when there was a lot more certaintly and little talk of sea borders and Irish unity polls.

It is amazing to think that Arlene Foster has been at the helm throughout RHI and Brexit yet still remains as leader during a time of turmoil for her party. I think it was only by a quirke of fate that allowed them to hold the power of balance in Westminster that meant she has survived all this while. There are bound to be a lot of dissenting voices within the party though over where she has taken them and she could come under more pressure over the next few months with the RHI enquiry findings due to be published and with the outcome of Brexit far from certain.

I don't think Foster was foremost in Brexit policy, although she clearly did not oppose it.
The DUP conference voted for it, any of those cannot have cause for  complaint, they should resign too.

[yellowcard]

The DUP have backed themselves into such a corner that I'd bet that they wish they could wind the clock back prior to the Brexit referendum when there was a lot more certaintly and little talk of sea borders and Irish unity polls.

It is amazing to think that Arlene Foster has been at the helm throughout RHI and Brexit yet still remains as leader during a time of turmoil for her party. I think it was only by a quirke of fate that allowed them to hold the power of balance in Westminster that meant she has survived all this while. There are bound to be a lot of dissenting voices within the party though over where she has taken them and she could come under more pressure over the next few months with the RHI enquiry findings due to be published and with the outcome of Brexit far from certain.

I don't think Foster was foremost in Brexit policy, although she clearly did not oppose it.
The DUP conference voted for it, any of those cannot have cause for  complaint, they should resign too.

She may not have been at the forefront of it but she facilitated it as leader. She probably only took a relative backseat since she is in a border constituency but there is no doubt that they went firmly in support of Brexit in order to play the SuperBrit card, without giving any great thought as to the consequences.

[yellowcard]

Meanwhile everyone else has got the blame for the predicament that they find themselves in. The Irish government, the EU, the business community, the media and Theresa May.

Everyone except themselves.