The 140th Open Championship

[Bogball XV]

1000/1 outsider won the last time here and it may well be the same again.  The course is a funny one with all sorts of humps and hollows meaning that a good drive might not end up as such and vice versa.  If I was going to bet on this it'd be a few outsiders on betfair and I'd not worry about the top 7 or 8 places.  With the difference in prices it's mad to bet on an outsider with a bookie.

Might back mickelson at 50.0 on betfair - he has a terrible open record, but that's a tempting price.

[laoislad]

btw I have given up on the fantasy golf. I've forgotten to select a team too many times.
I would defo have won the thing if it wasn't for that.

[Rossie11]

Wobbler I'm not taking away from how good Westwood and Donald are but as muppet said its a major and they have yet to prove they can win one. That why I couldnt back either.

A huge factor this week will be the weather. The rain and wind could take out half the field depending on the draw.

I have only 1 bet done yet and that was Goosen at 85 on betfair. Massive price for a guy who has 5 top 10s in past ten years and who worst finish in that time was 32nd.

Will back 1 or 2 of the "irish" lads and a yank or 2. Will look at some of the big priced yanks like Overton @ 300/1 rather than the more obvious picks

[Bogball XV]

Wobbler I'm not taking away from how good Westwood and Donald are but as muppet said its a major and they have yet to prove they can win one. That why I couldnt back either.

A huge factor this week will be the weather. The rain and wind could take out half the field depending on the draw.

I have only 1 bet done yet and that was Goosen at 85 on betfair. Massive price for a guy who has 5 top 10s in past ten years and who worst finish in that time was 32nd.

Will back 1 or 2 of the "irish" lads and a yank or 2. Will look at some of the big priced yanks like Overton @ 300/1 rather than the more obvious picks

Don't like goosen at all, i think his major winning days are behind him (well until he hits senior status).  I like the call on overton though, that's the type of guy I'm going to back, good solid player who's won a few times and is a big big price.  Thw guy Mark Wilson has won twice in the states this year and is near 400/1.  Short hitter, but i get the feeling that short might be better on this course.

[gerrykeegan]

Wobbler I'm not taking away from how good Westwood and Donald are but as muppet said its a major and they have yet to prove they can win one. That why I couldnt back either.

A huge factor this week will be the weather. The rain and wind could take out half the field depending on the draw.

I have only 1 bet done yet and that was Goosen at 85 on betfair. Massive price for a guy who has 5 top 10s in past ten years and who worst finish in that time was 32nd.

Will back 1 or 2 of the "irish" lads and a yank or 2. Will look at some of the big priced yanks like Overton @ 300/1 rather than the more obvious picks

Not sure the weather is going to play a major part, thursday Friday look dry and calm. matt kucher is playing great golf and played well at the weekend, outsiders for me todd hamilton, simon khan, rhys davis and brian davis who was 6th in 2003, cabera looked like he was showing some interst at the weekend

[Orangemac]

Mannassero is being talked up in some places. What are his chances?

Americans also seem to do well in this. Steve Stricker is in good form.

[Rossie11]

Mannassero is being talked up in some places. What are his chances?

Americans also seem to do well in this. Steve Stricker is in good form.

Heres a preview from Bettingzone.co.uk  Bit long but worth a read.

Will it be Rory? Will it be Luke? Will it be Lee?


You can certainly give big chances to all three of the market leaders in this week's Open Championship and it's easy to quickly compile a list of their plus points.


But when I look at the odds, I see instant negatives. 12/1 about two players who have yet to win a major and 8/1 about a young man thrust into the full glare of the media spotlight who's trying to do what no male golfer has managed since the war - winning their second major immediately after capturing their first.


So if not the front three, where to begin the search?

Well, one interesting stat about previous Royal St George's winners is that 12 of the 13 had finished in the top 20 in their previous Open start. And it would have been 13 out of 13 if Thomas Bjorn (8th at Muirfield the year before) hadn't famously blown a three-shot lead with four to play in the 2003 Open at Sandwich.


So tackling the Kent course knowing that you've already performed well in Open conditions is clearly a big help.

Another confidence-booster for anyone trying to win any major is having a recent win under your belt.

Nine of the last 11 Open winners, including the 'strange' ones such at Louis Oosthuizen and Todd Hamilton, had won on the European or US Tour within the last 12 months and six of the last seven major winners had posted a victory on one of those two main Tours during the previous year (the exception, surprisingly, being McIlroy).


It's quite simple really. If you've won recently and have proven yourself on an Open layout, the chances are that you could be in for a big week.


The good news is that, although McIlroy, Donald and Westwood, meet those two criteria, so do other less heralded players whose odds are far greater.

The first of those is a man who already has a major under his belt, current Masters champion Charl Schwartzel.

The Green Jacket winner is one of the most improved major players on the planet and to prove that, how's this for a stat. For the last seven majors running, Schwartzel has produced his best ever performance in the particular major he was playing.

So having continued that streak by setting PBs of 1st at The Masters and 9th in the US Open, the trends say he'll improve on his Open best of 14th at St Andrews last year.

The 26-year-old Schwartzel, who stood by the 18th green applauding his big pal Louis Oosthuizen to victory last year, has already racked up two wins in 2011 and seven on the European Tour in all so has a massive future.

Interestingly, the last Open to be played on a hard, fast course - the expected lie of the land for Royal St George's - was Hoylake in 2006 and the tied 22nd he managed there was the only top 25 he posted in his first 13 starts in majors.

He has further good form on dry, fast running tracks so in terms of pure performance he should really be ranked right in amongst the favourites as opposed to a 50/1 hopeful.

Let's not argue though and cash in.

I like to bang this particular drum even though many remain defiantly deaf to it but, in recent years, driving accuracy has been more important in The Open than the US Open.


In the five US Opens played between 2006 and 2010 the average Driving Accuracy rank of the winner was 37th, whereas for the last five Open Champions it was 22nd. McIlroy, by theway, was 26th for DA at Congressional (again higher than the average Open winner) despite all the nonsense that was spouted about him never missing a fairway.


The most accurate driver in the US Open last month was Matteo Manassero and while (as expected!) it didn't do him much good at Congressional (he finished 54th) it should prove a much more potent weapon at fast and firm Royal St George's where having a lie in the fairway is key when trying to control your ball when firing into these hard greens.


Amateurs often do well at Opens as they've had recent experience of playing links golf and that was part of the reason why the then 16-year-old Manassero finished a superb 13th on his debut, and only Open start, at Turnberry two years ago.

Manassero played with Tom Watson that week so had a magical first taste of The Open given that his 59-year-old playing partner almost won the tournament.

Since then the young Italian has flourished and in the last year has managed two victories, making him first and second on the all-time list of youngest ever winners of a European Tour event.

The most recent came at the Malaysian Open and since then we've seen him put in another superb display in a big event by taking the 54-hole lead in the European Tour's flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, where he eventually finished seventh.


While the US Open, as it has done in recent years, suited big hitters, Manassero's lack of length off the tee is no problem at Royal St George's and so is a much better fit for him.

He's young, he's fearless and he knows how to win. Have an each-way punt at 66s.

Next up is Robert Karlsson, a player whose odds wouldn't be anything like they are now if he was English instead of Swedish.

Karlsson can boast a second place (play-off loss at St Jude) and a fifth (Colonial) in his last four starts while he beat the best in Europe when capturing the Dubai World Championship at the end of November last year.

Links form? Yes. He won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2008 (also third in 2005) and has finished seventh (Turnberry) and 14th (St Andrews) in the last two Opens.

The vastly experienced Karlsson ranked in the top 10 for Driving Accuracy in both his recent top 10s at St Jude and Colonial so has his ball under control right now. And he appears to like playing in England having finished in the top 16 in five of his last six starts on English soil.

The 42-year-old has missed just one cut in the majors since the 2007 PGA Championship so he's very comfortable at this level now having struggled early in his career and everything appears to be building towards a peak moment.

His time could come at Royal St George's.

Trying to find a player with course form here is difficult given that golf has moved on so much since 2003 but it's interesting to note that KJ Choi finished tied 22nd despite shooting a horrid first round 77.

That was one of his best major finishes up until that point but since then he's shown up well in The Open. The Korean was third at halfway at Troon in 2004, third after 54 holes at Carnoustie in 2007 and the halfway leader and second with a round to go at Royal Birkdale in 2008.

The only disappointment is that he hasn't seen his efforts though and for all the good work he's done from Thursday to Saturday his best finishes are an eighth and two 16ths.


However, it's surely a matter of time before Choi does come on strong on a Sunday and he's becoming a force in the majors now with six top eight finishes to his name, the most recent at Augusta this year.

Choi's hand is strengthened by him becoming one of the hottest players in the game coming into Royal St George's.

A runner-up in the AT&T National on his last start, Choi's form figures staring from the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill read: 6-8-3-1-12-40-22-MC-2.

A straight hitter, great bunker player and much improved putter (remember his bizarre front on croquet action putting action he tried at St Andrews last year?), Choi is brimming with confidence after his victory in the Players Championship at Sawgrass and looks a great shout at 50/1 (although we'll take the 45/1 for seven places).

Now for some really big prices.

Robert Rock is clearly in a good place after his win inthe Italian Open last month and top 25 in the US Open after a last-minute dash to Congressional.

Most recently he added a tied 31st in the Scottish Open which doesn't look that remarkable unless you take a look at his scorecard for his final 36 holes which shows three eagles and rounds of 65 and 66.

Rock is in cracking form and, what's more, he's a big fan of The Open too.

He made the cut at St Andrews on debut in 2005, was 16th at fast-runnning Hoylake in 2006 and an excellent seventh back at the Old Course in 2010.

Perhaps a sign of how far he's progressed is the fact that he seemed underwhelmed with his performance at Congressional despite finishing tied 23rd after no sort of preparation.

He fits the profile of a winner this year who finished in the top 20 on his last Open appearance so the 150/1 makes plenty of appeal, especially with seven places on offer

Hopefully this Englishman can make hay while the major media focus is on Donald and Westwood.

Would it surprise you to know that the man ranked 30th in the world is priced up at 300/1?

Yes, until you discover it's a Korean player still not on the radar of the average punter - Kyung-Tae Kim.

Japan or Asian Tour players often pop up unannounced in The Open and it's interesting to note that in 2006 when the course was playing firm, fast and fairly short both Hideto Tanihara (fifth) and SK Ho (11th) were high on the leaderboard.

Ho was also second at halfway at Royal St George's in 2003 so, if he's aware of that, Kim could be inspired by his fellow Korean's Open heroics.

Kim, 24, is starting to make his own history in the majors and has now made the cut in his last four, including a 30th at the recent US Open and a 48th at St Andrews last year.

Back in Asia, he's been in fine form of late. In May he racked up a win, a second and a third and was also 10th in the co-sanctioned Ballantines Championship.

Last time out he finished second in the Japan Tour's Mizuno Open where he ranked first in the Putting Average stats so he could just emerge as a surprise name in the top seven and land the huge odds available at Paddy Power

[whitegoodman]

Think Im going for;

Westwood - Big major player, 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 years and top 5 in 5 of the last 7 majors. Due one
Garcia - If and it a big IF he can get some sort of putting going he will be hard to beat.  Form is coming too.
McDowell - Yet to put 4 rounds together this year but good lynx course player and has the minerals for it.
Harrington - Very quiet, knows how to get the job done and came into a bit of form last wk.
Goosen - Bit like Garcia, if he can get the putter going he could be contention.  A bit of form last wk too.
Kucher - Consistent top 10 player and played well last wk.

[Hardy]

Good God!

[thebigfella]

Think Im going for;

Westwood - Big major player, 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 years and top 5 in 5 of the last 7 majors. Due one
Garcia - If and it a big IF he can get some sort of putting going he will be hard to beat.  Form is coming too.
McDowell - Yet to put 4 rounds together this year but good lynx course player and has the minerals for it.
Harrington - Very quiet, knows how to get the job done and came into a bit of form last wk.
Goosen - Bit like Garcia, if he can get the putter going he could be contention.  A bit of form last wk too.
Kucher - Consistent top 10 player and played well last wk.

Wtf is a lynx course?

[Declan]

Wtf is a lynx course?

Haven't stop laughing at that one yet!!!

[Orior]

Wtf is a lynx course?

Haven't stop laughing at that one yet!!!

That's cat.

[Stevie g 8]

harrington at 35/1 is a good price.i think boylesports are paying 8 places

[thebigfella]

Wtf is a lynx course?

Haven't stop laughing at that one yet!!!

I keep thinking of McDowell practicing with up round Portrush Ricky Bobby style, "You need to learn to drive with the fear, and there ain't nothin' more goddamn frightening than driving with live cougars on the tee box".

[whitegoodman]

a pile of cnuts