China Coronavirus

[trueblue1234]

Yes, read that to, the info I found most interesting was 165 dead from covid only, all other deaths had accompanying morbidities.

I'm amazed at this stage you found that interesting tbh.

why?

Where you not aware Covid affects the vulnerable more than others?

[Man Marker]

Yes, thats not what surprised me, it was the 165 number that did.

[trueblue1234]

Yes, thats not what surprised me, it was the 165 number that did.

In what way?

[David McKeown]

Can someone explain the Omicron is milder for me point please. What I mean is if you were likely to be hospitalised or die from delta are you less likely to die from Omicron. Or is it that less people who get it are likely to be hospitalised. If it's the former how is that established?

Take the following example.

If you had 100 people on a cruise ship such that there was cross contacts between everyone.

If it was delta and 5 people died, 10 were hospitalised and 10 were infected but needed no treatment. The remaining 75 not getting infected. Then the rate of those infected would be 20% (5 out of 25) and hospitalisations 40%. Etc.

If Omicron though would have given you the following results

10 deaths 20 hospitalised 45 infected but no treatment required then your death rate would be 13.3% (10 out of 75) 26% hospitalised etc.

So the virus would appear milder killing lesser percentage of those it infects but disproportionately infecting more people.

My concern is we say this is milder but absolute death and hospitalisation numbers don't seem to be falling which makes me concerned that it's actually just infecting more people who weren't particularly at risk before.  Of course it could be that Omicron is less likely to kill than Delta would have been but I've seen nothing on how that's established.

If this isn't too waffling.

[armaghniac]

Omicron infects more people, but a smaller proportion of them go to hospital and if they do they tend not to stay as long or go on to ICU. However, because Omicron infects more people it still puts hospitals under pressure.
They think that Omicron is more effective in the nose and throat, which makes it more transmissible, but not as effective in the lungs etc, which is what kills you.

[Franko]

Omicron infects more people, but a smaller proportion of them go to hospital and if they do they tend not to stay as long or go on to ICU. However, because Omicron infects more people it still puts hospitals under pressure.
They think that Omicron is more effective in the nose and throat, which makes it more transmissible, but not as effective in the lungs etc, which is what kills you.

I remember reading something early in the pandemic which basically illustrated that you may be better with something less transmissible but more lethal.  Due to the fact that transmission grows exponentially but lethality exhibits linear growth.

[RadioGAAGAA]

It's a positive (excuse the pun), but hospitalisations from omricon isn't main issue, it's general transmission and subsequent absenteeism and booster doesn't seem to be stopping that at all.

As others have pointed out.

Hospital care due to omicron is the ONLY issue in town right now.

But your not wrong as there are two sides to that - obviously how many patients are entering the doors with it - and how many staff are having to stay off because they have it.

If the thick cnuts took their jabs, pressure on critical care would roughly half. That doesn't help staffing numbers - not sure there is much can be done at that end of things to be honest as I don't see a palatable* approach to slowing the spread sufficiently in the general public right now...

*Anyone up for more school closures?

[David McKeown]

Omicron infects more people, but a smaller proportion of them go to hospital and if they do they tend not to stay as long or go on to ICU. However, because Omicron infects more people it still puts hospitals under pressure.
They think that Omicron is more effective in the nose and throat, which makes it more transmissible, but not as effective in the lungs etc, which is what kills you.

I just don't understand if it's said to be milder because it's less likely to leave someone it infects (chosen at random from amongst those effected) needing treatment or dying. Or if it's said to be milder because the risk to a specific individual is lower. Ie delta would have killed them but Omicron wouldn't.

[Captain Obvious]

Milder ultimately means you are less likely be seriously sick or die. Those are the key metrics of any virus regardless of how transmissible it may be.

[armaghniac]

Omicron infects more people, but a smaller proportion of them go to hospital and if they do they tend not to stay as long or go on to ICU. However, because Omicron infects more people it still puts hospitals under pressure.
They think that Omicron is more effective in the nose and throat, which makes it more transmissible, but not as effective in the lungs etc, which is what kills you.

I just don't understand if it's said to be milder because it's less likely to leave someone it infects (chosen at random from amongst those effected) needing treatment or dying. Or if it's said to be milder because the risk to a specific individual is lower. Ie delta would have killed them but Omicron wouldn't.

The risk to an individual is lower. The aggregate effect might not be so different owing to more people getting it.

[Armagh18]

It's a positive (excuse the pun), but hospitalisations from omricon isn't main issue, it's general transmission and subsequent absenteeism and booster doesn't seem to be stopping that at all.

As others have pointed out.

Hospital care due to omicron is the ONLY issue in town right now.

But your not wrong as there are two sides to that - obviously how many patients are entering the doors with it - and how many staff are having to stay off because they have it.

If the thick cnuts took their jabs, pressure on critical care would roughly half. That doesn't help staffing numbers - not sure there is much can be done at that end of things to be honest as I don't see a palatable* approach to slowing the spread sufficiently in the general public right now...

*Anyone up for more school closures?

Realistically vaccination is 90%+ last I saw. You couldnt ask for much more

[RadioGAAGAA]

Realistically vaccination is 90%+ last I saw. You couldnt ask for much more

When around half of ICU covid patients are the stupid fcukers that comprise the ~5% - yes I could.

[Rossfan]

Realistically vaccination is 90%+ last I saw. You couldnt ask for much more

When around half of ICU covid patients are the stupid fcukers that comprise the ~5% - yes I could.

+1.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

It's a positive (excuse the pun), but hospitalisations from omricon isn't main issue, it's general transmission and subsequent absenteeism and booster doesn't seem to be stopping that at all.

As others have pointed out.

Hospital care due to omicron is the ONLY issue in town right now.

But your not wrong as there are two sides to that - obviously how many patients are entering the doors with it - and how many staff are having to stay off because they have it.

If the thick cnuts took their jabs, pressure on critical care would roughly half. That doesn't help staffing numbers - not sure there is much can be done at that end of things to be honest as I don't see a palatable* approach to slowing the spread sufficiently in the general public right now...

*Anyone up for more school closures?

Realistically vaccination is 90%+ last I saw. You couldnt ask for much more

Remember the heady days of 70 percent vaccnated for herd immunity.
Ah well

[From the Bunker]

Remember the heady days of 70 percent vaccinated for herd immunity.
Ah well

Yeah, the two shots to freedom (or the one shot with Jansen (or Johnson & Johnson as it was known in Norway)).

Great memories.