Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[yellowcard]

Predictions:
Tories narrow majority by around 10-15 seats
DUP 9 or 10 - Pengelly gone but they will win North Down from Sylvia Hermon - Dodds may lose out to Finucane will be very close
SF 6 or 7 - McCallion will lose her seat. Finucane v Dodds too close to call
SDLP 2 - Eastwood and Hanna to take a seat each from SF and DUP

So if Finucane wins North Belfast it would be 9 pro remain and 9 pro Brexit seats, otherwise pro Brexit will have a majority again.   

[magpie seanie]

Every seat the SDLP get reduces the DUP's potential "balance of power".

[magpie seanie]

We can argue that the polls are and have been inaccurate. What seems clear to me though is the direction of the momentum. Labour have undoubtedly closed the gap. Hopefully by enough and more.

[screenexile]

Can't see Finucane winning NB they've gone all out with there with voter registration drives and townhall meetings to make sure it doesn't slip. Pissing on the street while very minor wouldn't have helped!!

I think the Torys get their majority by 20 or so then who the f**k knows what happens then??!!

[screenexile]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

[Franko]

Kuenssberg with another pro-Boris 'mistake' this afternoon.  Illegally discussing postal votes (which AFAIU, she shouldn't ever have been able to even see).

Also, this morning when GMB tried to get an interview with Boris, firstly his minder swears at the reporter (on live TV) and then his aides eventually shut Boris away IN A FRIDGE.

Kuenssberg tweeted and described the incident as 'a fuss'.  Seriously. A fuss.

Imagine that had been Corbyn, Swinson or Sturgeon?

[seafoid]

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/12/the-largest-vote-swings-in-british-general-election-history-censored-out-by-the-bbc-and-mainstream-media/amp/

[HiMucker]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

I just don't buy that. Around half the UK want Brexit to happen. Those people are not going to vote for a party that doesn't endorse brexit, no matter how charismatic the party leader is. This is a single issue election for the vast majority of UK voters.

[seafoid]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

If the Tories win there will be a tax on exclamation marks.

[Kidder81]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

I just don't buy that. Around half the UK want Brexit to happen. Those people are not going to vote for a party that doesn't endorse brexit, no matter how charismatic the party leader is. This is a single issue election for the vast majority of UK voters.

The problem for Labour is they have went to the hard left under Corbyn/McDonnell, people left of centre who have been Labour all their lives are told to f**k off to the Tories if any dissent was raised about the direction of the party and Labour expect those people to hold their nose and still vote Labour ?

[HiMucker]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

I just don't buy that. Around half the UK want Brexit to happen. Those people are not going to vote for a party that doesn't endorse brexit, no matter how charismatic the party leader is. This is a single issue election for the vast majority of UK voters.

The problem for Labour is they have went to the hard left under Corbyn/McDonnell, people left of centre who have been Labour all their lives are told to f**k off to the Tories if any dissent was raised about the direction of the party and Labour expect those people to hold their nose and still vote Labour ?

If you are left of centre and vote for the Tories you should be sectioned

[Kidder81]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

I just don't buy that. Around half the UK want Brexit to happen. Those people are not going to vote for a party that doesn't endorse brexit, no matter how charismatic the party leader is. This is a single issue election for the vast majority of UK voters.

The problem for Labour is they have went to the hard left under Corbyn/McDonnell, people left of centre who have been Labour all their lives are told to f**k off to the Tories if any dissent was raised about the direction of the party and Labour expect those people to hold their nose and still vote Labour ?

If you are left of centre and vote for the Tories you should be sectioned

They will more than likely not vote but they are votes Labour should have

[seafoid]

PS. If Keir Starmer is leading that election Labour win by a landslide!!

I just don't buy that. Around half the UK want Brexit to happen. Those people are not going to vote for a party that doesn't endorse brexit, no matter how charismatic the party leader is. This is a single issue election for the vast majority of UK voters.

   https://www.ft.com/content/7a403354-1c33-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4

   "On Monday, Mr Johnson refused to look at a photo of the boy who had been forced to lie on a pile of coats in a Leeds hospital because of a lack of beds. The image served to highlight the state of the NHS, one of the few areas on which Labour is seen as somewhat more trusted than the Conservatives.

Most of the MRP survey was done before the NHS story broke. But Mr Roberts says: "Boris Johnson's actions here have done him no favours when it comes to the need to reassure Labour voters in northern marginals to back the Conservatives. Boris was on a mission to reassure Labour voters that it was OK to vote Tory. They may be reluctant to do so when seeing what they feel is his apparent heartlessness.""

Leave voters may not vote Tory because Johnson is an arsehole

[yellowcard]

Big gains for labour in latest poll just released up 3% points (only 5% behind Tories which is smallest gap since election was called) hung parliament is on the cards but who knows at this stage the polls bouncing all over the place.

[screenexile]

Big gains for labour in latest poll just released up 3% points (only 5% behind Tories which is smallest gap since election was called) hung parliament is on the cards but who knows at this stage the polls bouncing all over the place.

What polls are you reading???

I've seen anything from 13 to 8 haven't seen it as close as that though!