6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[trileacman]

Below is a section from Brian Feeney's column in today's Irish News re the border poll issue. As I said in this thread a few days ago, demographic changes have brought about the reality of a nationalist electoral majority and it's universally understood and accepted that this demographic shift is not just set to continue, but to actually accelerate.

Where's the hard evidence for that?

[Armagh18]

Below is a section from Brian Feeney's column in today's Irish News re the border poll issue. As I said in this thread a few days ago, demographic changes have brought about the reality of a nationalist electoral majority and it's universally understood and accepted that this demographic shift is not just set to continue, but to actually accelerate.

Where's the hard evidence for that?

We're out riding the Prods more nationalist voters are joining the register and the unionist vote is aging/dying. Any poll you see shows support for the union is highests with the 65+ and support for a UI is highest amongst 18-30, clearly only going one way

[armaghniac]

Below is a section from Brian Feeney's column in today's Irish News re the border poll issue. As I said in this thread a few days ago, demographic changes have brought about the reality of a nationalist electoral majority and it's universally understood and accepted that this demographic shift is not just set to continue, but to actually accelerate.

Where's the hard evidence for that?

Demographics is a slow process, but predictable as those entering the register in 2041 are being born this year. It is not going to "accelerate", it is going to continue at its present inexorable rate for another quarter century, it may then slow down by nats will be a majority then.

[seafoid]

Well then, what are we waiting on? 2 Strong elections from nationalism/republicans

When crunch comes to crunch the unionists will come out, and be interesting to see how many in the likes of the Falls area vote for UI

Why wouldn't they?

keeping things as they are, free housing DLA and the other benefits that have been given to them, you could put a chart up showing how much they would get in the South but it may be a case, better the devil you know....

I just don't think its as cut and dried as a numbers game will show, i.e more taigs than prods

You say "keeping things as they are" like they're good.
They aren't.

The North is a mess but for a lot of people including on the green side of the house, they are not going to make a leap into the unknown. A border poll is something that has to succeed on the first go so a lot of planning has to go into it. 51% Taig is not enough. 

[Armagh18]

Well then, what are we waiting on? 2 Strong elections from nationalism/republicans

When crunch comes to crunch the unionists will come out, and be interesting to see how many in the likes of the Falls area vote for UI

Why wouldn't they?

keeping things as they are, free housing DLA and the other benefits that have been given to them, you could put a chart up showing how much they would get in the South but it may be a case, better the devil you know....

I just don't think its as cut and dried as a numbers game will show, i.e more taigs than prods

You say "keeping things as they are" like they're good.
They aren't.

The North is a mess but for a lot of people including on the green side of the house, they are not going to make a leap into the unknown. A border poll is something that has to succeed on the first go so a lot of planning has to go into it. 51% Taig is not enough.

Unionism should probably let SF call for one asap as it would likely fail just at the minute, then they csn kick the can down the road for another generation. The way things are going though it won't be long until one would pass

[seafoid]

Milltown  doesn't seem to realise we've got Social Welfare  in the 26.

I think the angelus is going to be a hard sell in Ballymena.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS-71kaPfSo

One of the great weaknesses of the Irish nation is planning and the Northern branch seems to be just as bad as the rest. 

[trailer]

Well then, what are we waiting on? 2 Strong elections from nationalism/republicans

When crunch comes to crunch the unionists will come out, and be interesting to see how many in the likes of the Falls area vote for UI

Why wouldn't they?

keeping things as they are, free housing DLA and the other benefits that have been given to them, you could put a chart up showing how much they would get in the South but it may be a case, better the devil you know....

I just don't think its as cut and dried as a numbers game will show, i.e more taigs than prods

You say "keeping things as they are" like they're good.
They aren't.

The North is a mess but for a lot of people including on the green side of the house, they are not going to make a leap into the unknown. A border poll is something that has to succeed on the first go so a lot of planning has to go into it. 51% Taig is not enough.

Unionism should probably let SF call for one asap as it would likely fail just at the minute, then they csn kick the can down the road for another generation. The way things are going though it won't be long until one would pass

I'd be surprised if a Unity ref got more than 40%. If it failed by that margin the next one could be 50 years away. Important to get the timing right.

[Rossfan]

The 2 Health Systems seem equal anyway
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/people-waiting-over-four-and-a-half-years-for-first-outpatient-appointment-in-ni/321269583.html

But at least Unionist patients can wrap a UJ around themselves and look at a video of Charlie Windsor's Coronation.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/05/25/john-major-terms-for-uk-calling-border-poll-in-north-should-be-spelled-out/

Former UK prime minister Sir John Major said there is a case for asking the British government to set out the precise terms that would have to be met for it to call a Border poll in the North.

Speaking at the Irish embassy in Belgravia in London on Wednesday evening, he also said it would be "prudent" for the British and Irish governments to propose changes to the Belfast Agreement to prevent any one party in Northern Ireland from collapsing the Stormont Assembly.

[Nanderson]

Well then, what are we waiting on? 2 Strong elections from nationalism/republicans

When crunch comes to crunch the unionists will come out, and be interesting to see how many in the likes of the Falls area vote for UI

Why wouldn't they?

keeping things as they are, free housing DLA and the other benefits that have been given to them, you could put a chart up showing how much they would get in the South but it may be a case, better the devil you know....

I just don't think its as cut and dried as a numbers game will show, i.e more taigs than prods

You say "keeping things as they are" like they're good.
They aren't.

The North is a mess but for a lot of people including on the green side of the house, they are not going to make a leap into the unknown. A border poll is something that has to succeed on the first go so a lot of planning has to go into it. 51% Taig is not enough.

Unionism should probably let SF call for one asap as it would likely fail just at the minute, then they csn kick the can down the road for another generation. The way things are going though it won't be long until one would pass

I'd be surprised if a Unity ref got more than 40%. If it failed by that margin the next one could be 50 years away. Important to get the timing right.

The thing I find most promising about the unity ref is its probably sitting at around high 30 to low 40 percent I  favour. And that's without having any real discussion or dialogue with how exactly it would be funded and the likes of health services/government etc that is key to convincing the middle ground

[seafoid]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

[Armagh18]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

[LeoMc]

Well then, what are we waiting on? 2 Strong elections from nationalism/republicans

When crunch comes to crunch the unionists will come out, and be interesting to see how many in the likes of the Falls area vote for UI

Why wouldn't they?

keeping things as they are, free housing DLA and the other benefits that have been given to them, you could put a chart up showing how much they would get in the South but it may be a case, better the devil you know....

I just don't think its as cut and dried as a numbers game will show, i.e more taigs than prods

You say "keeping things as they are" like they're good.
They aren't.

The North is a mess but for a lot of people including on the green side of the house, they are not going to make a leap into the unknown. A border poll is something that has to succeed on the first go so a lot of planning has to go into it. 51% Taig is not enough.

Unionism should probably let SF call for one asap as it would likely fail just at the minute, then they csn kick the can down the road for another generation. The way things are going though it won't be long until one would pass

I'd be surprised if a Unity ref got more than 40%. If it failed by that margin the next one could be 50 years away. Important to get the timing right.

The thing I find most promising about the unity ref is its probably sitting at around high 30 to low 40 percent I  favour. And that's without having any real discussion or dialogue with how exactly it would be funded and the likes of health services/government etc that is key to convincing the middle ground

A bit like brexit, an UI can mean all things to all men. When plans, costs, symbols, status, etc are defined it will be easy to lose numbers from the edges.
E.g "I'm not voting for an Ireland inside the commonwealth" or "I'm not voting for an Ireland that changes the anthem and give Unionists a veto at Stormont"

[JPGJOHNNYG]

40%.  I think a lot of you guys are being pessimistic. The big unknown? What you mean like Brexit the shit show we are actually in with no plan, if anything a vote for UI will return us to more familiar ground. Unknown like what will replace the NHS? Well the the big known is the NHS isn't fit for purpose so why would you bust a gut trying to keep it. A lot of strange thinking going on. Sounds like a lot of us given the chance will be like the Scots and believe all the crap fear mongering unionism will throw at us, embarrassing. Remember the VOW before the Scots referendum from all the UK party leaders. How did that work out?ffs

[johnnycool]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

Emotion will get you so far, but it won't get a 50%+1 majority in NI at the minute.

The demographics may indeed be swinging in the right direction but not enough so the middle 15% (based on the LE votes for Alliance and the Greens) will need hard facts and figures and SF won't be able to swing these voters, it'll be a combination of a Civic forum and Irish Gov proposals as to what that UI will look like.

There's a bit of work to do yet.

41.5% voted for Nationalist or Nationalist leaning parties ( I haven't counted the independents)
38.1% voted for Unionist parties, no independents included either)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/northern-ireland/results