6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[armaghniac]

Aontú are standing a good few candiates but are a bit right-wing for a lot of people. That hard core Catholic ethos hashad little impact in Ireland recently. Not sure if they'll take many seats though but could impact where the final seat goes.

I'm sure a third of people support their views. However, social policy is not really the business of local councils, Aontú could provide an alternative to the closed shop of SF, who need a bit of competion in order not to be pure useless.

[LC]

What do these "Independent republicans" stand for?
Or are they just Not Sinn Féin?

I'm not entirely sure. I think they are dissidents. Against Stormont, attending the coronation etc. Some of them are connected to IRA volunteers who died in the troubles so there's a bit of SF are sell-outs to it all as well. They have huge pressure on SF anyway. SF had the big guns out in Mid Ulster, Mary Lou and Conor Murphy. Mo'N is on every lamppost even though she's not even running. SF will have a good day I'd imagine but this is a worry for them. The Gildernew stuff in Clogher isn't going down well at all I'm told. Same as the Martina Anderson in Derry where she seemed to appoint candidates based on who was related to her. SF cleaned house there but maybe the Gildernew name is sacrosanct?

What happened re the Gildernews?

[clarshack]

Mid Ulster could be interesting.
Real squeeze on SF by Independent Republicans
In Dungannon Barry Monteith (current councillor) and Marian Vincent are up against Dominc Molloy, (current councillor & Francie's son ) and Deirdre Varsani. Interesting to see how that goes. Molloy has a good profile and is liked.
In Clogher Gael Gildernew is trying to defend her father Phelim's seat who retired (She is also Michelle's (MP) Sister and Colm's (MLA) Brother) her along with Eugene McConnell and Sean McGuigan (current coucillor) are up against Kevin McElvogue Ind Rep. SF have 2 elected and running 3. I think they might lose a seat here.
In Torrent Michelle O'Neill's home turf, Dan Kerr Ind Rep (current councillor) has Teresa Quinn as his running mate. SF are running 4.

Some SF voters are a bit pissed with the lack of selection process and the coronation of certain candidates from certain families. While SF will probably have a very good day across the north, Mid Ulster will be interesting. Ind Republicans are running 5 cands and calling it the drive for 5. I think they will add 1 for sure with McElvogue.

One to watch.

Isee a lot of older candidates are not running again.  Across all the political parties.  The new generation and all that.

Turnout will be interesting. Will it get above 60% overall.  Weather to be decent, which might help.

Be interesting to see if Alliance make any more impact west of the Bann.  They're trying to build their base in different areas. They'll finish as the 3 rd party.

Big day for the SDLP and UUP.  They'll lose seats but will it keep Eastwood and Beattie in their jobs? 

As per usual, the final seat in a lot of areas will be interesting.  If certain parties are ahead before the final transfers, then that could see them over the line.  Alliance will be transfer friendly.

Vote as far down the ballot paper as you can, including the DUP and TUV.

A bridge too far old chap!

I understand and I knew someone would raise this:

By doing this, you are pushing them further doing the list than by not doing it.

A tricky concept but it's true.

Unless there's one candidate you absolutely don't want to see getting elected then that's the way to do it but if you consider more than one to be of equal cuntiness then it's pointless.

What do these "Independent republicans" stand for?
Or are they just Not Sinn Féin?

I'm not entirely sure. I think they are dissidents. Against Stormont, attending the coronation etc. Some of them are connected to IRA volunteers who died in the troubles so there's a bit of SF are sell-outs to it all as well. They have huge pressure on SF anyway. SF had the big guns out in Mid Ulster, Mary Lou and Conor Murphy. Mo'N is on every lamppost even though she's not even running. SF will have a good day I'd imagine but this is a worry for them. The Gildernew stuff in Clogher isn't going down well at all I'm told. Same as the Martina Anderson in Derry where she seemed to appoint candidates based on who was related to her. SF cleaned house there but maybe the Gildernew name is sacrosanct?

Just because you aren't a SF republican it doesn't make you a dissident. All of them are well known and respected within their local communities and that's why SF have the big guns out. Monteith & Kerr have been very visable and active over the last four years and could conceivably get a running mate over the line.

They aren't dissidents ffs. Anyway Kerr gets my vote as he is the only one of these folk who has ever knocked on my door in the last number of years but most importantly he also seems to get things done. Sinn Fein can get to eff.

[Feckitt]

As per usual, the final seat in a lot of areas will be interesting.  If certain parties are ahead before the final transfers, then that could see them over the line.  Alliance will be transfer friendly.

Vote as far down the ballot paper as you can, including the DUP and TUV.
[/quote]

A bridge too far old chap!
[/quote]

I understand and I knew someone would raise this:

By doing this, you are pushing them further doing the list than by not doing it.

A tricky concept but it's true.
[/quote]

Unless there's one candidate you absolutely don't want to see getting elected then that's the way to do it but if you consider more than one to be of equal cuntiness then it's pointless.





I believe the term is 'Vote til you boke'
I'm not a Unionist, but the UUP candidate will definitely get a preference from me in order to keep him ahead of the DUP.  My vote(or proportion of a vote) will only go to him once all my Higher preferences are Elected or Eliminated.
BTW, the UUP man is dacent enough. 

[marty34]

As per usual, the final seat in a lot of areas will be interesting.  If certain parties are ahead before the final transfers, then that could see them over the line.  Alliance will be transfer friendly.

Vote as far down the ballot paper as you can, including the DUP and TUV.

A bridge too far old chap!
[/quote]

I understand and I knew someone would raise this:

By doing this, you are pushing them further doing the list than by not doing it.

A tricky concept but it's true.
[/quote]

Unless there's one candidate you absolutely don't want to see getting elected then that's the way to do it but if you consider more than one to be of equal cuntiness then it's pointless.





I believe the term is 'Vote til you boke'
I'm not a Unionist, but the UUP candidate will definitely get a preference from me in order to keep him ahead of the DUP.  My vote(or proportion of a vote) will only go to him once all my Higher preferences are Elected or Eliminated.
BTW, the UUP man is dacent enough.
[/quote]

Yeah, as I said, some people won't get the concept of voting all the way down. 

Unfortunately they think you're giving a bit of a vote to the DUP or TUV etc. which you aren't.

[trailer]

Mid Ulster could be interesting.
Real squeeze on SF by Independent Republicans
In Dungannon Barry Monteith (current councillor) and Marian Vincent are up against Dominc Molloy, (current councillor & Francie's son ) and Deirdre Varsani. Interesting to see how that goes. Molloy has a good profile and is liked.
In Clogher Gael Gildernew is trying to defend her father Phelim's seat who retired (She is also Michelle's (MP) Sister and Colm's (MLA) Brother) her along with Eugene McConnell and Sean McGuigan (current coucillor) are up against Kevin McElvogue Ind Rep. SF have 2 elected and running 3. I think they might lose a seat here.
In Torrent Michelle O'Neill's home turf, Dan Kerr Ind Rep (current councillor) has Teresa Quinn as his running mate. SF are running 4.

Some SF voters are a bit pissed with the lack of selection process and the coronation of certain candidates from certain families. While SF will probably have a very good day across the north, Mid Ulster will be interesting. Ind Republicans are running 5 cands and calling it the drive for 5. I think they will add 1 for sure with McElvogue.

One to watch.

Isee a lot of older candidates are not running again.  Across all the political parties.  The new generation and all that.

Turnout will be interesting. Will it get above 60% overall.  Weather to be decent, which might help.

Be interesting to see if Alliance make any more impact west of the Bann.  They're trying to build their base in different areas. They'll finish as the 3 rd party.

Big day for the SDLP and UUP.  They'll lose seats but will it keep Eastwood and Beattie in their jobs? 

As per usual, the final seat in a lot of areas will be interesting.  If certain parties are ahead before the final transfers, then that could see them over the line.  Alliance will be transfer friendly.

Vote as far down the ballot paper as you can, including the DUP and TUV.

A bridge too far old chap!

I understand and I knew someone would raise this:

By doing this, you are pushing them further doing the list than by not doing it.

A tricky concept but it's true.

Unless there's one candidate you absolutely don't want to see getting elected then that's the way to do it but if you consider more than one to be of equal cuntiness then it's pointless.

What do these "Independent republicans" stand for?
Or are they just Not Sinn Féin?

I'm not entirely sure. I think they are dissidents. Against Stormont, attending the coronation etc. Some of them are connected to IRA volunteers who died in the troubles so there's a bit of SF are sell-outs to it all as well. They have huge pressure on SF anyway. SF had the big guns out in Mid Ulster, Mary Lou and Conor Murphy. Mo'N is on every lamppost even though she's not even running. SF will have a good day I'd imagine but this is a worry for them. The Gildernew stuff in Clogher isn't going down well at all I'm told. Same as the Martina Anderson in Derry where she seemed to appoint candidates based on who was related to her. SF cleaned house there but maybe the Gildernew name is sacrosanct?

Just because you aren't a SF republican it doesn't make you a dissident. All of them are well known and respected within their local communities and that's why SF have the big guns out. Monteith & Kerr have been very visable and active over the last four years and could conceivably get a running mate over the line.

They aren't dissidents ffs. Anyway Kerr gets my vote as he is the only one of these folk who has ever knocked on my door in the last number of years but most importantly he also seems to get things done. Sinn Fein can get to eff.

What are they then? Sinn Fein XXX?

[armaghniac]

Unfortunately they think you're giving a bit of a vote to the DUP or TUV etc. which you aren't.

THhs is not a border poll, there could be UU councillor who had some good work on cleaning up litter, getting a new park or whatever. You might absolutely want to give such a person a leg up over some out and out bigot.

[smort]

If you don't vote all the way down you are also lowering the quota for those last positions, making it easier for someone to get in

Vote all the way down!

[Eire90]

are a lot of these indepedent republicans irsp proxies

[RedHand88]

If you don't vote all the way down you are also lowering the quota for those last positions, making it easier for someone to get in

Vote all the way down!

Tried explaining this to family members who will only vote SF and then stop. I gave a transfer to Buchanan of the DUP in 2016 Assembly election because it was always going to be between him and the undoubtedly worse DUP candidate McCrea for the last seat. McCrea lost by 150 votes and hasn't ran since.

[Keyser soze]

I don't know about voting, but you know F all about quoting!!

[Rossfan]

If you don't vote all the way down you are also lowering the quota for those last positions, making it easier for someone to get in

Vote all the way down!

Tried explaining this to family members who will only vote SF and then stop. I gave a transfer to Buchanan of the DUP in 2016 Assembly election because it was always going to be between him and the undoubtedly worse DUP candidate McCrea for the last seat. McCrea lost by 150 votes and hasn't ran since.

You know exactly how to use PR!!

[Feckitt]

are a lot of these indepedent republicans irsp proxies

No but there's 1 in Strabane that you could categorise like that.

Who?  There are a lot of Independents in the Strabane area, and I can seem to work out if they are Independent Nationalists or just Independents?

[Eire90]

is eastwoods leadership at stake if they do bad.

[Eire90]

political party members should not be outside polling stations asking people questions trying to intimidate people