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Messages - Never beat the deeler

#1
GAA Discussion / Re: Power Rankings
June 21, 2024, 01:48:52 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 20, 2024, 10:32:50 AM
Quote from: Never beat the deeler on June 20, 2024, 09:39:20 AMthis appears to overvalue div2 results, consequently overstating Armagh's position

No, as the previous post said you get little or nothing for beating a team below you. Armagh got nothing for most of their games in Div 2, as Armagh came into the ranking pretty high and Meath, Fermanagh etc were far lower. In the group stages,  Armagh played Derry who were fairly similar then and a big margin of victory sent Armagh up and Derry down. Earlier in the championship Donegal also had a big boost by beating Derry, while Armagh got nothing for beating Fermanagh. Donegal are lower than Armagh now because they were beaten by Cork. 

No system is perfect and in this system a one point victory can have an excessive effect and progression on penalties can mean that the progressing team ends up lower, e.g. Monaghan progressed last year and got beat in the semi final, they only got a small bonus from the draw (as Armagh were higher then) and a bigger drop from the defeat.

Thanks for the explanation, I think that makes sense. So wins over Galway last year and Derry this year partly responsible for where Armagh are as by deinition they can't get much for the D2 wins (and didnt beat either of Cork or Donegal) and all other wins in the last couple of years seem to be per 'expected' results based on table position.

Not having a go at Armagh btw, just the position that seemed most glaring at a quick glance
#2
GAA Discussion / Re: Power Rankings
June 20, 2024, 09:39:20 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 18, 2024, 05:01:24 PMLaoisman11's ranking on Boardsie
Basically you have Dublin and Kerry and Armagh, Galway, Mayo and Donegal much the same and Tyrone not far behind. One of Dublin or Kerry will likely win out, but one could fall to one of the next five if they met. In this system Galway are expected to beat Monaghan and won't go up much for doing so, Mayo might go up a bit if they beat Derry. However, the QFs would see changes in the positions.



this appears to overvalue div2 results, consequently overstating Armagh's position
#3
Quote from: yellowcard on June 19, 2024, 10:22:47 AM
Quote from: Never beat the deeler on June 19, 2024, 01:03:21 AM
Quote from: WhoDat on June 18, 2024, 08:48:28 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on June 18, 2024, 08:08:10 PM
Quote from: WhoDat on June 18, 2024, 01:19:52 PM
Quote from: Truthsayer on June 17, 2024, 01:52:23 PM
Quote from: WhoDat on June 17, 2024, 11:45:57 AMderry will beat mayo
I seen nothing at the weekend that shows Derry have sorted the mess out. Against very middling opposition they were lucky not to cough up another few ridiculous goals, the confidence was on the floor and only a late goal saw them to safety. McStay seemed very focused on the next challenge after drawing with the Dubs while Harte is going over nonsense about critics and empty vessels.. a tactic he uses to employ a siege mentality. Can't see  Derry win...

it's the perfect draw for derry. if they'd drawn someone else like a tyrone or a louth, i actually wouldn't be surprised to see them limp out. i just think it would be impossible for a game like this against opposition like mayo to not get the blood pumping for a team of derry's type, no matter what's going on behind the scenes. perfect opportunity to get the heads together and develop a siege mentality. they're going to be dismissed all week and it's just setting the stage.

further, mayo looked very dejected at the end of their game against dublin. i think they were really, really disappointed to not win that game and showed incredible naivety in the last 20 seconds. there's still an element of the flake in mayo, i wouldn't trust them at all to get the job done even against a team that is supposedly in a shambles in the dressing room.

Jez, you are talking up and talking down a fair bit there. Personally I think that both will be goosed for their game the following week against a rested Kerry/Dublin/Armagh/Donegal. So Saturdays result is of little consequence in the scheme of things. Derry have been flat now for 2 months.

didn't say either would do anything the following week. in fact i don't think any of the teams in the prelims will get a sniff of an all ireland final to be quite honest. i just think derry have a kick in them yet, there was some fighting talk from their camp last weekend post-match, and i don't think mayo are the type of team that effectively puts the opposition away early and firmly enough and once derry get a sniff of blood, they could easily grow into the game.

My thoughts on this when I heard the draw. Derry are the type of team that Mayo have struggled against. This is the perfect draw for Derry to get their season back on track. All I am hearing everywhere is how Derry are a beaten docket.
What better man than Mickey Harte to create a siege in the camp.

This could go any way

A siege mentality only works when it's your own county, He can't exactly stand up and beat the chest and point to the badge, it just wouldn't look or sound right.   

BS. Everyone outside these four walls thinks we're going out today, yada, yada, yada. Your choice.... Prove them right or prove them wrong..... well I for one believe in the [insert training regime]. They've forgotten we were league champions a few months ago


etc
#4
Quote from: WhoDat on June 18, 2024, 08:48:28 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on June 18, 2024, 08:08:10 PM
Quote from: WhoDat on June 18, 2024, 01:19:52 PM
Quote from: Truthsayer on June 17, 2024, 01:52:23 PM
Quote from: WhoDat on June 17, 2024, 11:45:57 AMderry will beat mayo
I seen nothing at the weekend that shows Derry have sorted the mess out. Against very middling opposition they were lucky not to cough up another few ridiculous goals, the confidence was on the floor and only a late goal saw them to safety. McStay seemed very focused on the next challenge after drawing with the Dubs while Harte is going over nonsense about critics and empty vessels.. a tactic he uses to employ a siege mentality. Can't see  Derry win...

it's the perfect draw for derry. if they'd drawn someone else like a tyrone or a louth, i actually wouldn't be surprised to see them limp out. i just think it would be impossible for a game like this against opposition like mayo to not get the blood pumping for a team of derry's type, no matter what's going on behind the scenes. perfect opportunity to get the heads together and develop a siege mentality. they're going to be dismissed all week and it's just setting the stage.

further, mayo looked very dejected at the end of their game against dublin. i think they were really, really disappointed to not win that game and showed incredible naivety in the last 20 seconds. there's still an element of the flake in mayo, i wouldn't trust them at all to get the job done even against a team that is supposedly in a shambles in the dressing room.

Jez, you are talking up and talking down a fair bit there. Personally I think that both will be goosed for their game the following week against a rested Kerry/Dublin/Armagh/Donegal. So Saturdays result is of little consequence in the scheme of things. Derry have been flat now for 2 months.

didn't say either would do anything the following week. in fact i don't think any of the teams in the prelims will get a sniff of an all ireland final to be quite honest. i just think derry have a kick in them yet, there was some fighting talk from their camp last weekend post-match, and i don't think mayo are the type of team that effectively puts the opposition away early and firmly enough and once derry get a sniff of blood, they could easily grow into the game.

My thoughts on this when I heard the draw. Derry are the type of team that Mayo have struggled against. This is the perfect draw for Derry to get their season back on track. All I am hearing everywhere is how Derry are a beaten docket.
What better man than Mickey Harte to create a siege in the camp.

This could go any way
#5
Quote from: Manning18 on June 18, 2024, 12:29:21 AMIf not me so then maybe a fully neutral voice and somewhat qualified (past backroom analysis man for multiple high level teams)

https://x.com/somearagaa/status/1802350857981231219?t=loSHH52xcFLYcXz7QiwL1A&s=19

Videos can get a bit convoluted but still well worth a watch

It's all a moot point in anycase. Armagh got the draw they needed and probably won't even have to improve on that somewhat down performance to beat the likely opposition they'll face in a QF. A semi with Dub or Kerry will obviously be a different story

That is interesting, and maybe someone with a better knowledge of xscores can tell me.
The stats show that Armagh and Galway each had an identical conversion rate of 54%, but Galway's expected score was 15.7 versus Armagh's 15.0. As far as I can tell, that is because the expected score per shot for Galway was lower at 54% than Armagh's 62% (so Galway did better relative to their expected conversion rate)

Is this because of position the Galway players were shooting from was slightly poorer than the position of the Armagh chances? Or is this stat a historic shot conversion rate for each team? I think the former, but not 100% sure
#6
GAA Discussion / Re: All Ireland prelim QFs
June 17, 2024, 12:51:34 AM
Not sure its been said on here but why in the name of God would you hide this draw away on a Monday morning.
Do it live on the Sunday game! There'd be loads of interest

Generate a bit of talk about the games instead of just watching highlights, and everyone goes away not knowing what's going to happen next
#7
Bowl 1:  England, Italy, France, Germany

Bowl 2: Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium

Bowl 3: Turkey, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark

Bowl 4: Czech Republic, Scotland, Ukraine, Croatia

Bowl 5: Serbia, Poland, Hungary, Romania

Bowl 6: Slovakia, Slovenia, Georgia, Albania

England beat Portugal
#8
GAA Discussion / Re: Joe Brolly
June 06, 2024, 02:55:21 AM
Quote from: Olly on June 05, 2024, 10:17:19 PMI heard a boy talking about Frank Mitchell talking about Joe Brolly talking about Mickey Harte.

I read a post by Olly, dreamt up by ONeill talking about a boy talking about Frank Mitchell talking about Joe Brolly talking about Mickey Harte
#9
General discussion / Re: Ticket sellers....
May 29, 2024, 01:18:13 AM
Quote from: LC on May 28, 2024, 06:55:55 PMThe Armagh draw popped up on my Facebook feed the other day, £25 per ticket for a chance to win a house in Downings is good value compared to regularly paying £20 where max prize is £10k.

Seems to good to be true?

If you're comparing 'value' you need to factor in the total number of tickets sold.

When the prize is $10k and tickets are $20, only 500 tickets need to be sold to break even. So say they sell 600, you pay $20 and your ticket is worth $10k x 1/600 = $16.67

For a $250k prize and $25 tickets, they need to sell 10,000 tickets so the same deal. If they sell 11,000, your ticket is worth $250k x 1/11,000 = $22.72


(obv value of prizes is not always the same as cost of prizes, but for simplicity)
#10
General discussion / Re: Man Utd Thread:
May 27, 2024, 12:20:32 AM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on May 26, 2024, 10:16:34 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on May 26, 2024, 09:27:40 PMI think Ten Hags main job was to make progress in the premier league and in Europe. He failed abysmally at that task, getting knocked out of Europe completely at the first hurdle and dropping to a poor 8th in the premier league. Does the fa cup win make up for that. I don't think so. He was lucky to face an off form City in the final.

The only question to be answered is who replaces him.

Didn't Arteta in his first two seasons with Arsenal finish 8th in the Premier League and winning the FA Cup was deemed a success?  As for luck Manchester City were average club until they were lucky that their current billionaire owners chose them.

Average club is being extremely kind. They finished 14th in the PL the last full season before they approved an approach from Thaksin Shinawatra - a guy who was already in exile after getting overthrown due to corruption!
#11
General discussion / Re: The far right
May 24, 2024, 04:45:50 AM
Disaffected 'youth' sees a way to get involved in a bit of aggro and doesn't pass it up.
Had no idea what was going on, doesn't follow politics but someone says "Get angry" and the impressionable lap it up
#12
This article about Richard Martin (1754 - 1834)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Martin_(Irish_politician)

QuoteActive life
Martin also had a very eventful life. He was a colonel of the County Galway Volunteers.[29] He survived two shipwrecks.[30] He fought over a hundred duels with sword and pistol and earned the nickname "Hairtrigger Dick".[31] He travelled extensively in Europe and the Americas during the 1770s and was in New England when the American Revolutionary War began.[32] He initiated Galway's first theatre in 1783.[33]

Martin was on a first-name basis with many of the famous names of his age, including King George IV (who gave him the nickname "Humanity Dick"), Henry Flood, Henry Grattan, William Pitt, Queen Caroline, and Daniel O'Connell.[34] Despite his nickname he was considered a very harsh landlord in Ireland.[35]

On his death in 1834 his son Thomas became his heir.[36] A workhouse was built on his estate during the Irish famine. Although the workhouse was an apparent pledge to help the poor suffering from starvation, it is agreed that Thomas and his family did little to help and approximately 150,000 people died on their land during this period from starvation and fever.[36] Most of Martin's estate (approx. 200,000 acres (809 km2)) was in the west of Ireland and this area had one of the highest death tolls during the Famine.

You'd want to be a serious operator to be considered a harsh landlord at the time. Though 150,000 dead would do it
#13
If you want the whole list, I think that's my lot.

Australia
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Czech Republic
England
Germany
Indonesia
Ireland
Japan
Malta
New Zealand
Poland
Qatar
Scotland
Slovakia
South Korea
Spain
United Arab Emirates
United States of America
Wales
#14
Australia
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
#15
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 07, 2024, 07:59:20 PM
Quote from: Main Street on April 06, 2024, 11:02:28 PM
Quote from: Angus MacGyver on April 06, 2024, 09:30:42 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on April 06, 2024, 06:51:29 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 06, 2024, 02:40:10 PMHandy win for Monaghan tomorrow?

If Cavan are as poor as they finished the league it will be handy win for Monaghan. However this is championship playing the neighbours and live on BBC and RTE if no kick and competitive showing from Cavan it will speak volumes about them.

Cavan were pretty bad in the league but still were hard to beat. Meath for example should have had them beat out the gate by half time in Breffni but by the 60th minute Cavan were ahead.
Monaghan are brittle and low on confidence, plus they are missing their big attacking threats.

Best value bet is Monaghan ahead at HT but Cavan by a couple at the end.
I hope you go ahead and put a shít load of money on that one.
Anyway that's enough talk about other teams in Ulster, let's get back to chat about the AI Final Derry ('the second coming') V the Dubs
Hopefully he had the house on it! Some bet lol

Fair play! And stated before the game, not like some of the more prolific bet proclaimers on here