Brexit.

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/04/conservative-conference-2017-theresa-may-to-announce-council-house-building-programme-politics-live

2 - The Conservatives are desperate to win back young voters - but may be missing the big problem. Age, not class, has become the key divide in British politics and the few significant announcements we have had, on tuition fees, help to buy and council houses, have been aimed at the under-40s. Pensioners, by contrast, have not had a mention. But on their own they might not be enough. These are retail offers, but there is some evidence that the problem is cultural, and that young voters are turning away from the Tories because ...

3 - The Conservative party has become the Brexit party. At the time of the referendum it was a coalition, with members predominantly but not overwhelmingly pro-Brexit and the leadership predominantly but not overwhelmingly against. Now it looks like an enthusiastic pro-Brexit party. In the hall only Brexit really seems to get them going and the most popular fringe meetings have been those addressed by hardcore Brexiteers. MPs say that pro-remain members have stayed away, and that some are leaving the party altogether.

8 - Tory relations with business are strained. A party conference speech from a Conservative chancellor almost always gets a warm reception from business groups, but this year they were much more critical than usual. Big business did not want Brexit, and this to a large extent explains the problem. Philip Hammond's call for businesses not to "collaborate" with Labour also seems to have backfired.

9 - The Conservatives have abandoned the austerity narrative. Three years ago Ed Miliband was ridiculed by the Tories after failing to mention the deficit in his party conference speech. The deficit it still with us, but the Tories can see that people are fed up of anti-austerity and it has hardly had a mention all conference. Instead May is now talking about taking a "balanced approach" to the economy - whatever that means.

[seafoid]

Theresa May's speech - Snap verdict grauniad

Most party conference speeches, even those that are deemed a success on the day, are quickly forgotten. This one will be remembered for the rest of May's career. As her voice continually gave way, it was excruciating to watch and at one point it looked as if she would have to give up. The start of May's speech was strong, and she responded to the (rather puerile) protest from Simon Brodkin with a good, confident ad lib, but after that her voice sabotaged the rest of the speech. It is often overlooked how physically demanding politics is at the very top: endless early mornings, late nights, demanding schedules, and a job where you can't pull a sickie. May boasts that she is someone who doesn't give up, and she proved it today as she limped to the end of her speech. But it is hard - no, impossible - not to see this, at least to an extent, as a metaphor for premiership that is struggling and running out of things to say.

That is particularly harsh for May because, for once, she did have something to tell us. The first 15 minutes or so, as she talked about the election, and her grandmother who was in service, was good. She managed just about the right mix of determination and contrition and, although the "British dream" is a hackneyed theme, she personalised it well.

In policy terms, there were two significant announcements: on housebuilding and on an energy price cap. Both could have come straight out of an Ed Miliband speech, and in this respect the speech confirms that it is Labour that is setting the agenda. The housing announcement does not seem to live up to the billing it received overnight in the Sun, and we have had little detail on the energy price cap plan so far, and so the speech does not really fill the gap in the Conservative party's domestic policy agenda (see 10.47am). But it is a move in the right direction.

Will this be enough to reset May's fortunes? Unless having most of the nation feeling sorry for you can boost your ratings, almost certainly not. But she has got through conference without Boris Johnson resigning, or the party falling apart, and so it could have been worse.

Updated at 1.21pm BST
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[screenexile]

That speech was a car crash!!!

[seafoid]

That speech was a car crash!!!

The Tories are as bad as the Kilkenny hurlers this year.

[armaghniac]

That speech was a car crash!!!

The Tories are as bad as the Kilkenny hurlers this year.

Not a good year for the Black and Amber.

[sid waddell]

Theresa May's speech - Snap verdict grauniad

Most party conference speeches, even those that are deemed a success on the day, are quickly forgotten. This one will be remembered for the rest of May's career. As her voice continually gave way, it was excruciating to watch and at one point it looked as if she would have to give up. The start of May's speech was strong, and she responded to the (rather puerile) protest from Simon Brodkin with a good, confident ad lib, but after that her voice sabotaged the rest of the speech. It is often overlooked how physically demanding politics is at the very top: endless early mornings, late nights, demanding schedules, and a job where you can't pull a sickie. May boasts that she is someone who doesn't give up, and she proved it today as she limped to the end of her speech. But it is hard - no, impossible - not to see this, at least to an extent, as a metaphor for premiership that is struggling and running out of things to say.

That is particularly harsh for May because, for once, she did have something to tell us. The first 15 minutes or so, as she talked about the election, and her grandmother who was in service, was good. She managed just about the right mix of determination and contrition and, although the "British dream" is a hackneyed theme, she personalised it well.

In policy terms, there were two significant announcements: on housebuilding and on an energy price cap. Both could have come straight out of an Ed Miliband speech, and in this respect the speech confirms that it is Labour that is setting the agenda. The housing announcement does not seem to live up to the billing it received overnight in the Sun, and we have had little detail on the energy price cap plan so far, and so the speech does not really fill the gap in the Conservative party's domestic policy agenda (see 10.47am). But it is a move in the right direction.

Will this be enough to reset May's fortunes? Unless having most of the nation feeling sorry for you can boost your ratings, almost certainly not. But she has got through conference without Boris Johnson resigning, or the party falling apart, and so it could have been worse.

Updated at 1.21pm BST
Share

[seafoid]

Cluster f**k central

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu#img-1

Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice
that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster.

The calls for the prime minister to reveal advice from the country's top legal experts follow government statements declaring that Brexit is now unstoppable, and that MPs will have to choose between whatever deal is on offer next year – even if it is a bad one – or no deal at all.

Disquiet has been growing among pro-remain MPs, and within the legal profession and business community, about what is becoming known as the government's "kamikaze" approach. Ministers insist that stopping Brexit is not an option, as the British people made their decision in last year's referendum, and the article 50 process is now under way, however damaging the consequences might turn out to be when negotiations are concluded

Worry about lack of flexibility has intensified following the chaotic Conservative party conference in Manchester, and May's ill-fated speech. European leaders now doubt whether she has the political authority to move negotiations forward towards a satisfactory deal.

[omaghjoe]

I was wondering when this elephant was going to be tackled

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

I cant see any other way how NI would leave the customs union without customs checks. Unless the EU were fully prepared to turn a blind eye to the smuggling that would be rampant and would completely undermine the customs union. There really is no other way...

If that does transpire that would surely mean NI farmers abide with EU regulations? Would that mean they get subsidides, Cant imagine the EU is going to hand those out for free?

[johnneycool]

I was wondering when this elephant was going to be tackled

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

I cant see any other way how NI would leave the customs union without customs checks. Unless the EU were fully prepared to turn a blind eye to the smuggling that would be rampant and would completely undermine the customs union. There really is no other way...

If that does transpire that would surely mean NI farmers abide with EU regulations? Would that mean they get subsidides, Cant imagine the EU is going to hand those out for free?

NI farmers and anyone else wanting to trade with the EU will have to abide by EU regulations irrespective of hard/soft borders and tariffs.
It's a lose/lose in that regard.

Argentinian hormone filled steaks here we come......

[AQMP]

From the Guardian:

Davis insists Northern Ireland must leave customs union and single market

Davis turns to Ireland.

He says both sides are committed to avoiding physical infrastructure are the border.

The final outcome can only be agreed when the UK and the EU agree the final border.

But the UK will maintain its integrity, he says. He says it will not accept a new border between the island of Ireland and the mainland.

(He seems to be rejecting the proposal in the leaked EU document for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and the single market.)

Davis insists Northern Ireland must leave customs union and single market.

[Tubberman]

From the Guardian:

Davis insists Northern Ireland must leave customs union and single market

Davis turns to Ireland.

He says both sides are committed to avoiding physical infrastructure are the border.

The final outcome can only be agreed when the UK and the EU agree the final border.

But the UK will maintain its integrity, he says. He says it will not accept a new border between the island of Ireland and the mainland.

(He seems to be rejecting the proposal in the leaked EU document for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union and the single market.)

Davis insists Northern Ireland must leave customs union and single market.

Someone better ask the people of the north what they want!

[Farrandeelin]

I don't think the British government gave much thought to 'the Irish problem'. To me they don't know what to do about it. Does NO remain inside the common market like the rest of Ireland with a frictionless border, or outside the EU totally and with a border. After all the whole Brexit vote was to 'protect the borders' despite what everyone says. What ecactly do the DUP want? Do they even know themselves?

[AQMP]

I don't always agree with Simon Jenkins in The Guardian, but he's been pretty consistent and spot-on on Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/10/theresa-may-pay-up-clear-our-brexit-rebels-hardcore-brexiteers-minority-europe

Why does Theresa May keep telling us what we already know? She says she will not "tolerate" Brexit backsliding from rebel remainer MPs. What we actually want to know she's not tolerating is a much smaller group of flat-Earth rebels backsliding from a sensible Brexit. It is that madness she cannot fudge...

[AQMP]

I don't think the British government gave much thought to 'the Irish problem'. To me they don't know what to do about it. Does NO remain inside the common market like the rest of Ireland with a frictionless border, or outside the EU totally and with a border. After all the whole Brexit vote was to 'protect the borders' despite what everyone says. What ecactly do the DUP want? Do they even know themselves?

The DUP's motivation is to support anything that makes the divide between the two parts of Ireland wider.  I don't think they've considered, or care about, day to day consequences.

[johnneycool]

I don't think the British government gave much thought to 'the Irish problem'. To me they don't know what to do about it. Does NO remain inside the common market like the rest of Ireland with a frictionless border, or outside the EU totally and with a border. After all the whole Brexit vote was to 'protect the borders' despite what everyone says. What ecactly do the DUP want? Do they even know themselves?

The DUP's motivation is to support anything that makes the divide between the two parts of Ireland wider.  I don't think they've considered, or care about, day to day consequences.

They want to be as british as Finchley, but I'm sure the farmers in Finchley aren't shipping their meat and dairy products to processing plants in the South of Ireland.