Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 168812 times)

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2805 on: July 12, 2017, 08:06:05 AM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2806 on: July 13, 2017, 09:24:55 PM »
No surrender

https://www.ft.com/content/be2b22ce-67fc-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

Britain has for the first time explicitly acknowledged it has financial obligations to the EU after Brexit, a move that is likely to avert a full-scale clash over the exit bill in talks next week.In a written statement to parliament touching on a “financial settlement”, the government recognised on Thursday “that the UK has obligations to the EU . . . that will survive the UK’s withdrawal — and that these need to be resolved”.The text, released by Joyce Anelay, a Brexit minister, was immediately seen by Brussels as a potentially important development
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2807 on: July 13, 2017, 09:59:17 PM »
https://www.ft.com/content/bf0025aa-6720-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614
Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow
            
                     The UK government has failed to prepare for any of the necessary compromises
                     
                        Martin Wolf
                     by: Martin Wolf
               
"The UK once had a deserved reputation for pragmatic and stable politics. That will not survive the spectacular mess it is making of Brexit. Remember what has happened. In an unnecessary referendum, a small majority chose an option they could not understand, because it had not been worked out. Thereupon, a new prime minister, with no knowledge of the complexities, adopted the hardest possible interpretation of the outcome. She triggered the exit process in March 2017, before shaping a detailed negotiating position. Some 70 days later, in an unnecessary election, she lost both her majority and her authority.The Conservative party is so split over Brexit as to be no longer a coherent party of government. It is, as a result, questionable whether the compromises needed over money owed to the EU, rights of EU residents and the role of the European Court of Justice, could win approval in parliament. The Labour party will offer no relief: it wants another general election and is now about as split over Brexit as the Tories. Meanwhile, Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, patiently explains, as if to inattentive children, that “the clock is ticking”.

In late March 2019, the UK will exit the EU. If businesses are to make sensible plans, they will need to know what is going to happen no later than a year from now. If the deal is to be ratified, it must be sealed by autumn 2018. Moreover, as the EU has insisted, “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. Mr Barnier also argues that the UK must recognise that an exit deal will demand a substantial payment. This was in response to Boris Johnson, Britain’s foreign secretary, who remarked in parliament: “I think that the sums that I have seen . . . seem to me to be extortionate and I think ‘go whistle’ is an entirely appropriate expression.” If the UK sticks to this, there will certainly be no deal, be it a good one or a bad one.   
Watchdog says UK’s Brexit could collapse like ‘chocolate orange’
Audit office warns of ‘horror show’ if new customs IT system not ready by 2019
The UK government has failed to prepare the ground for any of the necessary compromises. It could probably not do so, in any case, because a significant number of Brexiters fail to understand the weakness of the UK’s hand: damage to access to the EU market would, for example, be far worse for the UK than vice versa, because the EU’s economy is some five times bigger than Britain’s.Worse, many Brexiters seem prepared for a “no deal”. But the UK would then, in the view of its most important economic partners, have defaulted on its legal obligations. The EU is a creature of law. Members would view such a violation of UK obligations as heinous.Anybody who thinks EU members would then co-operate over vital British interests, such as the flow of goods or aviation is dreaming. Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, has noted that the UK may be unable to process a vastly increased number of customs declarations after Brexit. But this underplays the risks. What will happen to the procedures on the other side?

The UK government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It will find it almost impossible to agree and implement a sensible deal on the divorce, the nature of the longer-term trading arrangement and the transition in the time available. But it would be even more impossible to fail to do so. Who knows which will win? My guess is that “no deal” is now the more likely.Sooner or later, markets will realise this, too. That could be destabilising for sterling and cause another spike in inflation. That would create a painful dilemma for the Bank of England. Jeremy Corbyn’s arrival as prime minister could also become more credible. How, after all this tomfoolery, could the Conservatives continue to claim the mantle of sober competence? What would happen then? Many Remainers still hope that, as the economy becomes still worse, the polls showing a continued rough balance between Brexiters and Remainers, will break for the latter, so causing a big shift of opinion in parliament. I see no constitutional objection to a referendum on the terms of Brexit (or the absence of such terms). Referendums are merely a (dangerous) political tool. But politically another referendum would be dynamite, further aggravating the deep splits over the European issue.The UK has become so ludicrous because the issue of the EU is so deeply felt by a significant part of the body politic. The Brexiters are the Jacobins of UK politics. Their ideological intensity has devastated the Conservative party and reduced British politics to its present shambles. There is, as a result, neither a comfortable exit from Brexit nor a plausible way of managing it smoothly.Whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. So it now is over Brexit."
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2808 on: July 14, 2017, 01:19:33 PM »
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if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

haranguerer

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2809 on: July 14, 2017, 02:08:49 PM »
Don't worry about it - Milltown said it'll be grand

seafoid

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"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

armaghniac

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2811 on: July 14, 2017, 04:15:49 PM »
Interesting piece from the Times posted elsewhere
------------------------------------------------------------------
When was the last time the UK exported more goods than it imported for an extended period — say five years or so?

The short answer is: never. Over the past 200 years this great trading nation has had a surplus in merchandise trade for fewer years than you have toes. Even during the Empire and the industrial revolution the UK invariably sucked in more goods than it pumped out.

It’s not that the UK doesn’t make anything — in fact it remains one of the world’s biggest manufacturers. But this island nation has never been self-sufficient. Indeed, the only thing preventing Britain’s balance of payments from looking truly horrendous is the services we have sold foreigners — financial, legal, consultancy, administration, retail and so on. In all but two peacetime years over the past two centuries the UK exported far more services than it imported.

Invisible stuff is difficult to count, so the scale of this phenomenon is almost certainly understated by the official figures. Even so, what they show is pretty stark. You’ll probably remember that one of Britain’s biggest goods exports in recent years was motor vehicles, of which we sold £26 billion abroad in 2015. Consider now that in the same year the UK earned more than £29 billion selling travel services and over £50 billion selling financial services overseas. We made £12 billion selling foreigners aircraft and parts thereof, but much more — £17 billion — selling air fares.

Services officially constitute 43 per cent of our exports, but much of what looks like manufacturing is actually services in disguise. Rolls-Royce’s main business model is no longer simply making and selling jet engines, it is about servicing and maintaining them for an annual subscription. Apple now makes more money from selling services (iTunes, iCloud, etc) than from selling actual computers.

How to square all this with the political debate about Brexit? Listening to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn drone on about securing “tariff-free access” to European markets, you might have assumed that all we need is a replacement for the customs union, a quick trade deal and voilà: British lorries and containers will still be able to cross the Channel.

This catastrophically misses the point. First, see above: Britain’s comparative advantage is and has always been in services. Second, as it happens, those containers already face the lowest tariffs in history. Across the rich world the average level of tariffs back in the 1980s was over 10 per cent; today it is below 5 per cent. For many goods, save things like agriculture and cars, they are at or close to zero. If all Britain wanted was low tariffs, sealing a trade deal with the US or indeed the EU would be a cinch.

These days what really matter are what economists call non-tariff barriers. That entails everything from regulations on product standards (you can’t sell your product in our country unless it conforms to our rules) to immigration rules (you can’t come here and do consulting work without our permission) and qualification rules (we won’t recognise your legal degree or medical qualification, so you can’t practise here). That may not trip off the tongue as easily, but consider this: the EU’s average tariff on manufactured goods is 2.3 per cent. The cost of non-tariff barriers is two or three times higher.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2812 on: July 15, 2017, 12:06:48 PM »
Don't worry about it - Milltown said it'll be grand

Where did I say it will be grand? I've always said wait and see, not in control of it but the amount of experts on here is embarrassing...

Flight to Orlando yesterday from Belfast was full, apparently they have tripled their flights next year from Belfast due to the high demand...
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)

clonadmad

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2813 on: July 15, 2017, 12:38:12 PM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose

seems you have more in common with Jim Alister than anyone else on here

Unionist......check
Brexiteer......check
Spends time sneering at the ROI rather than engage in serious economic debate.......check



« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 12:39:54 PM by clonadmad »

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2814 on: July 15, 2017, 12:47:36 PM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose

seems you have more in common with Jim Alister than anyone else on here

Unionist......check
Brexiteer......check
Spends time sneering at the ROI rather than engage in serious economic debate.......check

Unionist? Irish passport ......check
Brexiteer....... voted remain....check
Spends time listening to southerns moan about brexit and how better off the south is compared to everywhere else? ..... check
Engage in discussion on something that hasn't happened yet or no example of how it will pan out.... guilty
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)

seafoid

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2815 on: July 15, 2017, 01:01:05 PM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose

seems you have more in common with Jim Alister than anyone else on here

Unionist......check
Brexiteer......check
Spends time sneering at the ROI rather than engage in serious economic debate.......check

Unionist? Irish passport ......check
Brexiteer....... voted remain....check
Spends time listening to southerns moan about brexit and how better off the south is compared to everywhere else? ..... check
Engage in discussion on something that hasn't happened yet or no example of how it will pan out.... guilty

https://m.imgur.com/o8XDygi
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

clonadmad

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2816 on: July 15, 2017, 04:31:41 PM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose

seems you have more in common with Jim Alister than anyone else on here

Unionist......check
Brexiteer......check
Spends time sneering at the ROI rather than engage in serious economic debate.......check

Unionist? Irish passport ......check
Brexiteer....... voted remain....check
Spends time listening to southerns moan about brexit and how better off the south is compared to everywhere else? ..... check
Engage in discussion on something that hasn't happened yet or no example of how it will pan out.... guilty


Ian Og has an Irish passport,it doesn't make him Irish,just a flag of convenience in case he might have to queue at passport control

from your own mouth

"You are getting me confused with someone who wants to be part of country with economic failings." Jim Alister wouldn't have said it any better

There are no shortage of Business people in NI worried about the implications of Brexit,considering a third of NI's export go south but then again that's probably moaning to you as well.

Bottom line your livelihood wont be affected as a teacher,but if you owned a business or employed anyone,it damn well would,because if its one thing Business hates its uncertainty.

You need to broaden your economic metrics beyond the price to you of a bottle of faustino and flights to florida.


« Last Edit: July 15, 2017, 04:33:37 PM by clonadmad »

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2817 on: July 15, 2017, 06:25:47 PM »
Jesus you lot are a sensitive bunch.... Years of poverty will do that I suppose

seems you have more in common with Jim Alister than anyone else on here

Unionist......check
Brexiteer......check
Spends time sneering at the ROI rather than engage in serious economic debate.......check

Unionist? Irish passport ......check
Brexiteer....... voted remain....check
Spends time listening to southerns moan about brexit and how better off the south is compared to everywhere else? ..... check
Engage in discussion on something that hasn't happened yet or no example of how it will pan out.... guilty


Ian Og has an Irish passport,it doesn't make him Irish,just a flag of convenience in case he might have to queue at passport control

from your own mouth

"You are getting me confused with someone who wants to be part of country with economic failings." Jim Alister wouldn't have said it any better

There are no shortage of Business people in NI worried about the implications of Brexit,considering a third of NI's export go south but then again that's probably moaning to you as well.

Bottom line your livelihood wont be affected as a teacher,but if you owned a business or employed anyone,it damn well would,because if its one thing Business hates its uncertainty.

You need to broaden your economic metrics beyond the price to you of a bottle of faustino and flights to florida.

Not a teacher, you'd need to broaden your trolling.. private sector all my life... brexit will affect me my work and life I'm sure but I'll like most just deal with it when/if it happens...

I'm as much an Irish man than you
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)

Hardy

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2818 on: July 15, 2017, 07:22:21 PM »
Don't worry about it - Milltown said it'll be grand

Where did I say it will be grand? I've always said wait and see, not in control of it but the amount of experts on here is embarrassing...

Flight to Orlando yesterday from Belfast was full, apparently they have tripled their flights next year from Belfast due to the high demand...

You do know Brexit hasn't happened yet?
I studied deeply in the philosophies and religions, but cheerfulness kept breaking through - L.Cohen

Milltown Row2

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #2819 on: July 15, 2017, 10:51:49 PM »
Don't worry about it - Milltown said it'll be grand

Where did I say it will be grand? I've always said wait and see, not in control of it but the amount of experts on here is embarrassing...

Flight to Orlando yesterday from Belfast was full, apparently they have tripled their flights next year from Belfast due to the high demand...

You do know Brexit hasn't happened yet?

Yep, but they have tripled their flights for next year! So is it happening next year?
Anything I post is not the view of the County Board!! Nobody died in the making of this post ;-)