Catalan Independence Movement

Started by gallsman, September 21, 2017, 10:37:37 AM

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gallsman

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 11:57:29 AM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

As regards the first one, see above about legitimising anti-constitutional action. Rajoy and Madrid shouldn't be able to stop self-determination for a nation/people/region (delete according to your viewpoint).

About the AVE, I stand corrected then.

Is it legitimised if it's not supported by a majority, even a simple majority, of the population?

OgraAnDun

Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 12:14:38 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 11:57:29 AM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

As regards the first one, see above about legitimising anti-constitutional action. Rajoy and Madrid shouldn't be able to stop self-determination for a nation/people/region (delete according to your viewpoint).

About the AVE, I stand corrected then.

Is it legitimised if it's not supported by a majority, even a simple majority, of the population?

In my opinion, yes. If not I couldn't recognise the 1916 leaders as anything other than terrorists. Besides, in Catalonia all they're doing is giving people a voice, and we'll see how big or small a minority/majority it is.

magpie seanie

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 12:20:58 PM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 12:14:38 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 11:57:29 AM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

As regards the first one, see above about legitimising anti-constitutional action. Rajoy and Madrid shouldn't be able to stop self-determination for a nation/people/region (delete according to your viewpoint).

About the AVE, I stand corrected then.

Is it legitimised if it's not supported by a majority, even a simple majority, of the population?

In my opinion, yes. If not I couldn't recognise the 1916 leaders as anything other than terrorists. Besides, in Catalonia all they're doing is giving people a voice, and we'll see how big or small a minority/majority it is.

Power is rarely ever given away peacefully. Madrid don't want to let go of the goose laying the golden eggs.

OgraAnDun

Quote from: magpie seanie on September 25, 2017, 12:51:23 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 12:20:58 PM


In my opinion, yes. If not I couldn't recognise the 1916 leaders as anything other than terrorists. Besides, in Catalonia all they're doing is giving people a voice, and we'll see how big or small a minority/majority it is.

Power is rarely ever given away peacefully. Madrid don't want to let go of the goose laying the golden eggs.

I'd have to agree Seanie, if vote goes ahead, is in favour of independence and they proceed with a declaration of independence, there will be some very interesting times ahead.

gallsman

If any sort of vote goes ahead, of course it will be in favour of independence - only one section of the population will be taking part.

CiKe

Quote from: Main Street on September 25, 2017, 11:01:16 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 24, 2017, 10:39:46 PM
Quote from: Main Street on September 24, 2017, 01:55:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 22, 2017, 05:24:07 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 21, 2017, 12:43:20 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on September 21, 2017, 12:33:40 PM
Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.
50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit
What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.

Overwhelming political mandate? They basically illegally forced through legislation to allow the referendum. Although the Catalan parliament had majority of seats in favour of independence (52 to 48, I think it was, hardly overwhelming), this did not represent a majority of the popular vote

Pro-sovereignty coalition has a majority of 20 or so in the Catalan parliament
The popular mandate for holding a referendum was overwhelming in favour of, some 75%  and that still continues.
Latest polls, despite the misleading headlines  and blatant spin in this article from El Pais, the polls still indicate an overwhelming yes vote
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/07/21/inenglish/1500633835_182589.html
"67.5% of people polled by the CEO said they will vote in the October 1 referendum if it goes ahead, with 62.4% of this group saying they would vote yes and 37.6% saying they would vote no"

QuoteThe tragedy is that the "no" vote will be split between those not voting as don't want to legitimise the referendum and those that vote no, meaning there could easily be this unilateral declaration of independence after a yes vote despite the participation rates being extremely low.
You have some crystal ball there :D  Do you have any evidence?
The CEO opinion poll indicates that  68% of those polled, will vote.

For holding a referendum yes, a legal one, as pointed out by Gallsman. It isn't just a question of semantics.
Yes as I mentioned, they won a majority of seats in the 2015 election. They did not win a majority of the votes. If it was Norn Iron in that case you would find many saying it was gerrymandering.

Regarding your poll, my math not as good as it used be and haven't gone into the article but not sure a crystal ball is needed. Unless I am reading something wrong, your supporting evidence actually backs up my assertion.

i) 67.5% is is not a high participation rate for a referendum on independence

ii) You can take it as given that virtually everybody inclined to vote yes would vote. By your poll, that means 0.62*0.67 = 42% would vote yes. Far from a majority, never mind an overwhelming majority

iii) If 38% of those voting are voting no (26% of the population), and the 32% of the population not voting, vote no (because those voting yes will vote), I would say that is pretty much the "no" vote being split.

trileacman

Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 12:20:58 PM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 12:14:38 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 11:57:29 AM
Quote from: gallsman on September 25, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on September 25, 2017, 08:19:32 AMAFAIK the majority of Catalans at least want the opportunity to vote on the issue.

Even all the AVE lines have to connect in Madrid rather than link other major cities independently, such as Barcelona-Valencia or Bilbao-Barcelona.

Good post but two key points here:

The majority of Catalans want to vote in a legal, democratic referendum on the issue, not this sham Puigdemont has put together.

There are firm plans in place for the full expansion and integration of the AVE network. The problem with it, as it has been for 10 years, is the cost. The Barcelona-Valencia line is already under construction.

As regards the first one, see above about legitimising anti-constitutional action. Rajoy and Madrid shouldn't be able to stop self-determination for a nation/people/region (delete according to your viewpoint).

About the AVE, I stand corrected then.

Is it legitimised if it's not supported by a majority, even a simple majority, of the population?

In my opinion, yes. If not I couldn't recognise the 1916 leaders as anything other than terrorists. Besides, in Catalonia all they're doing is giving people a voice, and we'll see how big or small a minority/majority it is.

That's a fraudulent analogy. You are free to recognise the 1916 leaders as you wish regardless of of what popular support says.
Fantasy Rugby World Cup Champion 2011,
Fantasy 6 Nations Champion 2014

Main Street

Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.


gallsman

Quote from: Main Street on September 26, 2017, 12:39:11 AM
Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.

So what you're saying is that in a referendum where 99% of the voters will belong to one ideology, that ideology will prevail? Congratulations.

CiKe

Quote from: Main Street on September 26, 2017, 12:39:11 AM
Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.

Did I read your original source wrong or are you now refuting my post with this new poll source? As Gallsman says, the likelihood of a yes vote is going to be very high if those who would vote no, don't vote.

bennydorano

#70
There was a great 3 part Documentary on BBC 4 about the history of Spain, after the death of Franco  King Juan Carlos played a very substantial role in trying to unify the country & bring a quick transition to democracy. Any sign of the Monarchy being wheeled out yet by Madrid? Felipe would hardly be as popular as KJC.

gallsman

Monarchy wouldn't be popular in Catalunya to begin with and given the corruption scandals surrounding it the last few years, wheeling them out would potentially be disastrous and reinforce the oppression angle.

LCohen

Quote from: Denn Forever on September 21, 2017, 11:33:24 AM
I suppose if they get separation, the Basque region will be pushing and be sorry they declared peace

Unbelievable

bennydorano


Main Street

Quote from: CiKe on September 26, 2017, 06:34:19 AM
Quote from: Main Street on September 26, 2017, 12:39:11 AM
Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.

Did I read your original source wrong or are you now refuting my post with this new poll source? As Gallsman says, the likelihood of a yes vote is going to be very high if those who would vote no, don't vote.
It's not about you, I couldn't care less about what's going through your head or others for that matter.
It's just my habit to look for intelligent neutral sources for more accurate information.