Scottish independence referendum thread

[general_lee]

Surely they're not Unionists then?

[ardtole]

I presume it is 30% of voters from a traditional unionist background, who see the potential benefits of a united Ireland.

[seafoid]

I presume it is 30% of voters from a traditional unionist background, who see the potential benefits of a united Ireland.
Mostly rugby fans.
Soccer fans will be harder to shift

[HiMucker]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.

[HiMucker]

Heres an example, the Welsh assembly came in to being on a vote of 50.3% on a turnout of 50.1% of registered voters in 1997.
A vote on Irish Unification either way will be respected by the overwhelming majority.

[Farrandeelin]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.

IF and a massive if repartition was on the table, where would the border be?

[HiMucker]

Round Larne likely

[AustinPowers]

Round Larne likely

There'll be hell to pay if that  big crown  on the roundabout isn't within the new boundary

[JPGJOHNNYG]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.

IF and a massive if repartition was on the table, where would the border be?

Larne and Carrick with a bit round Jamie's house in donaghdee

[seafoid]

Heres an example, the Welsh assembly came in to being on a vote of 50.3% on a turnout of 50.1% of registered voters in 1997.
A vote on Irish Unification either way will be respected by the overwhelming majority.

The Brits are not going to allow a vote at 51%. There is no point in replacing one failed sectarian domination system with  another. That is the curse of the North. So SF has started its outreach programme. Alliance is probably a big part of it.

[Hound]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.

[armaghniac]

I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.

You are of course correct that a plan is needed. However, some of these issues can be clarified in the plan. You say that anyone changing currency has big price increases, but in the ROI inflation in 2002 and 2003, after the Euro was introduced, was less than in 2000 and 2001. The Celtic Tiger was the issue, the currency change was neither here nor there.

But the main point is that the above is swings and roundabouts. In relation to Ireland, and indeed Scotland, it is the overall state of the public finances that is the issue.

[HiMucker]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.

I don't disagree with any of that. I am merely arguing against the moving of the goal posts of what % of the vote is required to win such a referendum on Unification. It is and should and will stay at 50% plus one. Of course everything should be planned for in advance. Personally I believe even with the right planning there should be at least 2 years to the vote when a referendum is called.

[seafoid]

51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.

Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

I am not debating anything. The Brit position is upthread . 50 plus 1 is not  standard referendum practice for a change of State..
Brexit was 50 plus 1 and now is a clusterfuck with less than 50% support.
The North has been unstable since day 1. I don't see the Irish Govt wanting to bring that into a UI. And I don't think much planning has been done either,