General Election 2024

[marty34]

Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

Labour and SD's should be merged. Madness and egoes that they're not.

They'd have over 20 seats. Mayb more they they merged an put a plan in place.

I'd say FFG will look to solid, reliable Independent TD's, who they can trust. They'll give them a few crumbs from the table to keep them sweet.

A government will hardly be formed before Christmas. Looking at the transfers, serious high rates of transfers between the FFG party. But they gave very little to The Green Party. There's a moral to the story there!

[HiMucker]

It's understandable our Northern brethren on here have a soft spot for Sinn Fein.

The reality down south is Sinn Fein offered no opposition in the last Dail.

They were like lap-dogs to the Government. They pandered to the immigration problem.

They had No real oppinion on Covid, housing and all the woke stuff.

Outside of Mary Lou, Pearce and Matt Carthy - they had no public characters.

They are just another Globalist Party.

They are going no-where and will NEVER be in government.

Jesus thats a big statement. Wouldn't want to be putting any money on that

[naka]

It's understandable our Northern brethren on here have a soft spot for Sinn Fein.

The reality down south is Sinn Fein offered no opposition in the last Dail.

They were like lap-dogs to the Government. They pandered to the immigration problem.

They had No real oppinion on Covid, housing and all the woke stuff.

Outside of Mary Lou, Pearce and Matt Carthy - they had no public characters.

They are just another Globalist Party.

They are going no-where and will NEVER be in government.

Jesus that a big statement. Wouldn't want to be putting any money on that

Jeez some statement in respect of the party who has the second largest number of seats
As the troubles  continue to pass into history the fg/ff comments will start to lack credence 68-94 will become like the war of independence and the civil war .

[thewobbler]

It's understandable our Northern brethren on here have a soft spot for Sinn Fein.

The reality down south is Sinn Fein offered no opposition in the last Dail.

They were like lap-dogs to the Government. They pandered to the immigration problem.

They had No real oppinion on Covid, housing and all the woke stuff.

Outside of Mary Lou, Pearce and Matt Carthy - they had no public characters.

They are just another Globalist Party.

They are going no-where and will NEVER be in government.

Jesus that a big statement. Wouldn't want to be putting any money on that

Jeez some statement in respect of the party who has the second largest number of seats
As the troubles  continue to pass into history the fg/ff comments will start to lack credence 68-94 will become like the war of independence and the civil war .

If SF can continue to maintain a profile that's higher than SD or Labour, then they'll likely have the most seats by 2032. That's just demographics in action.

Whether that'll be enough to form a government or not, who knows. But by that stage one of FF or FG will be looking for coat tails to ride on, I would expect.

[Milltown Row2]

I'd say if there is a UI then the likes of FF and FG will fall way behind a SF count

[Snapchap]

The reality down south is Sinn Fein offered no opposition in the last Dail.
They are going no-where and will NEVER be in government.

Listened to a similar discussion on bbc Talkback yesterday but a selection of political "experts" from the 26 counties. The general consensus seemed to be that SFs support has absolutely evaporated, that they have no future and may as well just pack it all in. Sometimes it pays to step back and look at the bigger picture.

General Election 2007.
• Fianna Fáil - 78 seats
• Sinn Fein - 4 seats

General Election 2024.
• Fianna Fáil - 48 seats
• Sinn Fein - 39 seats

No. of seats for SF over the last 5 elections:
4 => 14 => 24 => 37 => 39

For those who prefer not to look at the bigger picture, consider how the prospects for SF looked about 6-8 weeks ago for this general election during the McMonagle/O'Donnghaille sagas. The percieved wisdom was that the election could not have come at a worse time for them, and that they were facing into disaster. Not too many on this board would have given them much cance of getting close to 39 seats. 'From the Bunker' you yourself posted an image of the Costa Concordia as a representation of the party when the election date was called. I'd take anyone's definitive long term predicions, for any party, with a big pinch of salt.

[armaghniac]

I'd say if there is a UI then the likes of FF and FG will fall way behind a SF count

Why? The only distinct thing about SF will have ended. FF and FG will suit Ireland as well then are they do now and if people people want a left option there will be real ones.

[johnnycool]

So it'll be FF/FG and 2 easily bought independents? Boxer Moran and who else?

The Healy Rae's aren't easily bought, but a few K to their off-shot companies will do it.

Let me get this right, SF had a "terrible" election yet ended up with two more seats than they did last time out?

Also in relation to a UI. With Mehole Martin as Taoiseach he'll not lift one finger to do any groundwork, the worst kind of a lick-spittle you can image.

[Saffrongael]

So it'll be FF/FG and 2 easily bought independents? Boxer Moran and who else?

The Healy Rae's aren't easily bought, but a few K to their off-shot companies will do it.

Let me get this right, SF had a "terrible" election yet ended up with two more seats than they did last time out?

Also in relation to a UI. With Mehole Martin as Taoiseach he'll not lift one finger to do any groundwork, the worst kind of a lick-spittle you can image.

The "conditions" were there for the incumbents to be booted, as has happened just about anywhere else in the last year, it didn't happen or come close to it.

Plenty of reasons for that and we can talk round the houses but it didn't happen.

This wasn't the election result Sinn Fein were expecting.

[Saffrongael]

The reality down south is Sinn Fein offered no opposition in the last Dail.
They are going no-where and will NEVER be in government.

Listened to a similar discussion on bbc Talkback yesterday but a selection of political "experts" from the 26 counties. The general consensus seemed to be that SFs support has absolutely evaporated, that they have no future and may as well just pack it all in. Sometimes it pays to step back and look at the bigger picture.

General Election 2007.
• Fianna Fáil - 78 seats
• Sinn Fein - 4 seats

General Election 2024.
• Fianna Fáil - 48 seats
• Sinn Fein - 39 seats

No. of seats for SF over the last 5 elections:
4 => 14 => 24 => 37 => 39

For those who prefer not to look at the bigger picture, consider how the prospects for SF looked about 6-8 weeks ago for this general election during the McMonagle/O'Donnghaille sagas. The percieved wisdom was that the election could not have come at a worse time for them, and that they were facing into disaster. Not too many on this board would have given them much cance of getting close to 39 seats. 'From the Bunker' you yourself posted an image of the Costa Concordia as a representation of the party when the election date was called. I'd take anyone's definitive long term predicions, for any party, with a big pinch of salt.

Did you personally think the McMonagle/O'Donnghaile issues would effect votes ?

Though O'D was a senator he would be better known up here, and wasn't an integral figure for SF. I didn't think it would matter much in the south, they were big on Twitter world but as we have seen elections aren't won or lost on Twitter.

[gallsman]

So it'll be FF/FG and 2 easily bought independents? Boxer Moran and who else?

The Healy Rae's aren't easily bought, but a few K to their off-shot companies will do it.

Let me get this right, SF had a "terrible" election yet ended up with two more seats than they did last time out?

Also in relation to a UI. With Mehole Martin as Taoiseach he'll not lift one finger to do any groundwork, the worst kind of a lick-spittle you can image.

They're very easily bought. Just expensive.

[johnnycool]

So it'll be FF/FG and 2 easily bought independents? Boxer Moran and who else?

The Healy Rae's aren't easily bought, but a few K to their off-shot companies will do it.

Let me get this right, SF had a "terrible" election yet ended up with two more seats than they did last time out?

Also in relation to a UI. With Mehole Martin as Taoiseach he'll not lift one finger to do any groundwork, the worst kind of a lick-spittle you can image.

The "conditions" were there for the incumbents to be booted, as has happened just about anywhere else in the last year, it didn't happen or come close to it.

Plenty of reasons for that and we can talk round the houses but it didn't happen.

This wasn't the election result Sinn Fein were expecting.

Everyones vote dropped, SF were rightly in the cross hairs of the media for poor internal procedures around vetting and safeguarding in the lead up to this election and yet managed to get two more seats.

I'd say Mary Lou would have taken that in a heartbeat a month ago.

[imtommygunn]

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

[Saffrongael]

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

On Twitter maybe, and that's not the real world.

You seriously thought SF were finished over the head of an unknown former press officer being suspended by SF (rightly) & a Senator from the North being a creep ?

You may have had unionists up here creaming themselves, it was never going to move the needle with voters in the south

[Snapchap]

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

On Twitter maybe, and that's not the real world.

You seriously thought SF were finished over the head of an unknown former press officer being suspended by SF (rightly) & a Senator from the North being a creep ?

You may have had unionists up here creaming themselves, it was never going to move the needle with voters in the south

I don't know anyone who thought they were finished, but the conventional wisom was that the election couldn't have come at a worse time for them. I recall reading an Irish Times column which surmised that the election was called earlier than initially planned, purely to take advantage of SF's problems at the time. If you're suggesting that the abolute feeding frenzy on SF in the weeks before the election was entirely unrelated to said election, then I've a bridge to Scotland to sell you.