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Messages - Maiden1

#1
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
November 05, 2020, 01:00:40 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on November 05, 2020, 12:47:16 PM
Biden us 1/5 to win on Oddschecker, that looks fairly solid.
Saw that.  Surely has to be as close to a cert as can get.  Half tempted to cash all my imaginary ISAs and stick everything on Biden.
#2
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
November 04, 2020, 09:50:06 AM
Trump 4/6 now.  Was 2/5 15 min ago.
#3
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
November 04, 2020, 08:12:43 AM
Trump 1/2
Biden 2/1

Flip of odds from last night
#4
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
October 22, 2020, 11:37:58 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on October 22, 2020, 10:17:13 AM
But this isn't the case

Even in the hypothetical event that there turned out to be no vaccine - and this seems very unlikely - there are effective strategies available, and there are countries that have already put them into practice and are successfully suppressing the virus while opening up their societies

From what I can make out you are proposing to lift all restrictions, with no suppression strategy

This is a right-wing American anarcho-capitalist talking point pushed by the likes of the Koch Brother(s)

The people proposing this are some of the worst people in the world

You are the person with all the questions to answer here because you are the person proposing that the population of Ireland and the population of the world becomes the subject of a grotesque experiment
Anarcho-capitalist talking point made me LOL (then google to try to figure out what it is).

I think you are giving people too much credit calling out fascists on multiple threads.  In this example people want to work to be able to pay their mortgage they don't have Mein Kampf in the drawer beside the bed.  I'd be interested in the make up of the jobs of the people on this board, what percentage have an income linked to the public sector and therefore have their income protected verses those that rely on a somewhat functioning economy and how strongly that influences their views.
#5
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
October 19, 2020, 11:56:44 PM
Quote from: ballinaman on October 19, 2020, 10:10:31 PM
So Micheál Martin confirmed its the suppress and release strategy until "a safe vaccine is found".

Ouch...that's a serous roll of the dice .
3 weeks in lockdown then 3 weeks off then back in for an arbitrary amount of time is the worst scenario for anyone trying to run a business in the hospitality sector as no one knows whether they are coming or going so no one can confidently book a table or a room anywhere 3 weeks in advance. The business may or may not still be opened and the people who own or work in the business may or may not be entitled to some payment but they have no customers either way. Even when businesses where opened for a few weeks the rules ensured they couldn't really make a go off it. Max of 6 people, pub closed by 10, no music, nobody too drunk, only talk to person in your group, now talk of outdoor only venues in the middle of winter mean there was no appeal in going out anyhow. The same for anyone thinking of going abroad or coming to Ireland. It doesnt matter which countries are on the green or amber list or whatever.  Most people wont go anywhere as they dont want the hassle of guessing what different rules will be in place a week from now.  There are whole sectors of the economy screwed and the on off restrictions and rules that go along with it are only making it worse.
#6
Kilcoo
Saul
St Paul's
#7
Quote from: Mourne Red on September 11, 2020, 01:05:25 AM
SFC

Ballyholland vs Carryduff
CPN vs Kilcoo

IFC

Saul vs Liaotrim
Drumgath vs Annaclone

JFC

Drumaness vs St Paul
Dundrum vs Finn

SFC Relegation P/O

RGU vs Darraghcross
Glenn vs Castlewellan

IFC Relegation P/O

St Johns Bosco vs Teconnaught
#8
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 04, 2020, 08:09:52 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 04, 2020, 05:00:21 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 04:52:15 PM


BLM becomes a double edged sword when it goes along with looting and smashing up businesses.


Anyone who gets bent out of shape about a few broken windows but doesn't care about black people being slaughtered by cops needs to take a long hard look at themselves.
That's bs. If I went round my neighbourhood and started smashing windows and lifting TVs out of houses would that be ok? Woukd anyone who tried to stop me be or disagreed be a racist?
#9
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 03, 2020, 05:38:55 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 03, 2020, 05:28:10 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 04:52:15 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 03, 2020, 04:30:50 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 08:12:49 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 02, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
This is a failing strategy so the strategy now is to steal the election
If he wins it's because of cheating/fascism/.. is like a football manager yelling at the ref when they lose by 10 points. I.e. look closer to home first on why losing.

Some things I have read on here that don't ring true for me.

1) Trump is a terrible speaker.  To me he is a brilliant speaker.  His style might be WWE smackdown but he is the only politician that if I saw was on live I would tune in for 10 minutes just to see if he goes off the prepared script and says something he wasnt supposed to before the secret service get a chance to turn his mike off.
2) He has dementia. He is in his 70s and walked slowly down a gang plank and drinks a glass of water in an unusual way but has anyone who claims he has dementia watched Biden recently?

Some things that could hurt Trump that probably won't.

1) 'Grab a woman ...' would probably hurt him but it was first used by Hillary during debates with Bill squirming in the audience.
2) Ice. Ice detention policy was started before Trump.

A couple of things which it hard to say will help or hurt him.

1) COVID. Lockdowns effect jobs.
2) Black lives matter. BLM matter but not being in favour of wrecking the place doesnt make someone racist.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JoCdiCc1JoM

If they don't ring true, you may need to look into these issues a little more.

The reason the ramp/water incident at West Point was thrown in Trump's face was because his campaign made such a massive issue of Biden's supposed one-foot-in-the-nursing-home status. They also tried the same bollocks with Hillary last time out (can't remember the details, but she had a cold for a few days in late summer or something similarly trivial). If he wants to dish it out, he should expect plenty of microanalysis of his own health status in return. I expect we'll get another "healthiest human being ever!" report from his "doctor" sometime soon.

Most sensible people don't deny that lockdowns cost jobs. That is not what Trump is being judged on with respect to COVID. Similarly, current debate over indoor dining in NYC aside, it has not affected the likes of Cuomo. People understand it's a desperate time. What Trump IS being judged on is his disgraceful abdication of responsible leadership during a massive pandemic, beginning with denying its existence, all the way through undermining his own and many other public health officials, promoting conspiracy theories and quacks, bringing political pressure to bear on various aspects of the national response purely for his own, personal political benefit. That his own appalling performance has, ultimately, helped extend the outbreak and thus adversely affect the economy even further is partly why he is currently on a crusade to scare the f**k out of the citizenry about the "state" of Democratic cities. Basically anything to change the subject.

Speaking of which... BLM may or may not hurt Trump, sure. He's going all in on it saving his skin. Biden has come out and unequivocably condemned the left wing rioting and looting. He'll probably have to do so again and again over the coming weeks. Why is there no such expectation of the same from Trump? Instead he gives tacit and explicit encouragement to the far right, including outright racists, and holds up that moronic kid who killed those people in Wisconsin as some kind of hero.

ICE detention WAS started before Trump. It was not used as a political weapon by other presidents. Other presidents didn't rip wailing toddlers out of their hysterical mothers' arms and send them off f**k knows where for weeks and months. Other presidents didn't go after poor immigrants working on production lines in meat factories (same people bearing a lot of the brunt of the COVID outbreak), sweeping them up out of their lives en masse while their kids were in school.
I'm not sure this is true on ICE i.e. that they were any more compassionate pre Trump.

The economy is screwed with people being turfed out of there homes.  Depending on who people blame on this will go a long way to decide the election.

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1301345195544502274

BLM becomes a double edged sword when it goes along with looting and smashing up businesses.

Biden looks a very weak candidate given his age and recent gaffs like 'I'm Jill Biden and I .. ' don't help with regard to perception of mental decline.  To me  it seems more like banking on an anyone but Trump ticket but I am not sure it will get enough people to come out and vote for him.

If you can find records of ANY other president splitting young kids from their mothers and fathers, please post it. The Central American gang-driven influx of minors at the border one of the years under Obama (2014 I think) rightfully lead to massive criticism as some of them ended up caged due to the sheer lack of available resources at the time, but no one else had the sheer lack of humanity to countenance jailing mothers and fathers while sending their small kids off to cities across the country.

BLM seems pretty clearcut to me. You can support their cause while condemning and countering the riots, whether caused by anarchists, right wing provocateurs, idiots out looting for free stuff or simple frustration. You can support the overall mission of policing while insisting that they have been found seriously wanting when it comes to training and accountability and the need for reform. Those viewpoints are not mutually exclusive and they are the view of most intelligent people. Biden needs to make it clear that that is where he stands.

As for Biden, it is absolutely a case "anyone but Trump". That is the reason Biden won the nomination. No one thinks he is the perfect candidate or that he hasn't at least a little less vigour that he did in his prime, but he won because he is a moderate centrist and a non-threatening option to the historically appalling Trump. When it comes to the debates, as I've said here before, the way Trump has defined him down, if he gets through it without drooling or pissing his trousers, he'll be well set, in as far as the debates matter.

Ultimately, this election is going to come down to how many of those people in the middle want to endure another four years of Trump and his freakshow. He knows he's got nothing, which is why he is going all in on the scary Democratic cities and their riotous minorities. Some rural farmer might not have a nearby hospital or post office to rely on or market for his crops, but at least he's not dodging bullets in a hellscape of burnt out buildings and cars like NYC! (I live in NYC BTW).
Living in US you are more educated than me on ICE and exactly what has changed since Trump but splitting mothers and children up is ****** up. If Biden was going to change this he should come out and say strongly.

I would be tempted if polls keep going towards Trump to switch Biden and Harris. At the minute democrat party looks to me like no one at wheel and that they hoping to coast to win.
#10
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 03, 2020, 04:52:15 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 03, 2020, 04:30:50 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 08:12:49 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 02, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
This is a failing strategy so the strategy now is to steal the election
If he wins it's because of cheating/fascism/.. is like a football manager yelling at the ref when they lose by 10 points. I.e. look closer to home first on why losing.

Some things I have read on here that don't ring true for me.

1) Trump is a terrible speaker.  To me he is a brilliant speaker.  His style might be WWE smackdown but he is the only politician that if I saw was on live I would tune in for 10 minutes just to see if he goes off the prepared script and says something he wasnt supposed to before the secret service get a chance to turn his mike off.
2) He has dementia. He is in his 70s and walked slowly down a gang plank and drinks a glass of water in an unusual way but has anyone who claims he has dementia watched Biden recently?

Some things that could hurt Trump that probably won't.

1) 'Grab a woman ...' would probably hurt him but it was first used by Hillary during debates with Bill squirming in the audience.
2) Ice. Ice detention policy was started before Trump.

A couple of things which it hard to say will help or hurt him.

1) COVID. Lockdowns effect jobs.
2) Black lives matter. BLM matter but not being in favour of wrecking the place doesnt make someone racist.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JoCdiCc1JoM

If they don't ring true, you may need to look into these issues a little more.

The reason the ramp/water incident at West Point was thrown in Trump's face was because his campaign made such a massive issue of Biden's supposed one-foot-in-the-nursing-home status. They also tried the same bollocks with Hillary last time out (can't remember the details, but she had a cold for a few days in late summer or something similarly trivial). If he wants to dish it out, he should expect plenty of microanalysis of his own health status in return. I expect we'll get another "healthiest human being ever!" report from his "doctor" sometime soon.

Most sensible people don't deny that lockdowns cost jobs. That is not what Trump is being judged on with respect to COVID. Similarly, current debate over indoor dining in NYC aside, it has not affected the likes of Cuomo. People understand it's a desperate time. What Trump IS being judged on is his disgraceful abdication of responsible leadership during a massive pandemic, beginning with denying its existence, all the way through undermining his own and many other public health officials, promoting conspiracy theories and quacks, bringing political pressure to bear on various aspects of the national response purely for his own, personal political benefit. That his own appalling performance has, ultimately, helped extend the outbreak and thus adversely affect the economy even further is partly why he is currently on a crusade to scare the f**k out of the citizenry about the "state" of Democratic cities. Basically anything to change the subject.

Speaking of which... BLM may or may not hurt Trump, sure. He's going all in on it saving his skin. Biden has come out and unequivocably condemned the left wing rioting and looting. He'll probably have to do so again and again over the coming weeks. Why is there no such expectation of the same from Trump? Instead he gives tacit and explicit encouragement to the far right, including outright racists, and holds up that moronic kid who killed those people in Wisconsin as some kind of hero.

ICE detention WAS started before Trump. It was not used as a political weapon by other presidents. Other presidents didn't rip wailing toddlers out of their hysterical mothers' arms and send them off f**k knows where for weeks and months. Other presidents didn't go after poor immigrants working on production lines in meat factories (same people bearing a lot of the brunt of the COVID outbreak), sweeping them up out of their lives en masse while their kids were in school.
I'm not sure this is true on ICE i.e. that they were any more compassionate pre Trump.

The economy is screwed with people being turfed out of there homes.  Depending on who people blame on this will go a long way to decide the election.

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1301345195544502274

BLM becomes a double edged sword when it goes along with looting and smashing up businesses.

Biden looks a very weak candidate given his age and recent gaffs like 'I'm Jill Biden and I .. ' don't help with regard to perception of mental decline.  To me  it seems more like banking on an anyone but Trump ticket but I am not sure it will get enough people to come out and vote for him. 
#11
Quote from: Mourne Red on September 03, 2020, 12:53:35 PM
Next round of predictions (1/4 - Relegation Playoffs) Scores will be updated and posted once this round of predictions is done :)

SFC

BALLYHOLLAND   vs   LOUGHINISLAND   
ROSTREVOR   vs   KILCOO   
CPN      vs   CLONDUFF
BRYANSFORD   vs   CARRYDUFF   

SFC Relegation P/O

DARRAGH CROSS   vs   RGU
CASTLEWELLAN   vs   GLENN

IFC

ANNACLONE   vs   DROMARA
SAUL      vs   NEWRY SHAMROCKS   
LIATROIM   vs   AN RIOCHT   
CLANN NA BANNA   vs   DRUMGATH

IFC Relegation P/O

ATTICALL   vs   ST JOHN BOSCO GAC   
BRIGHT      vs   TECONNAUGHT

JFC

ARDGLASS   vs   AUGHLISNAFIN
DRUMANESS   vs   KILCLIEF
ST PAUL'S   vs   GLASDRUMMAN
DUNDRUM GAC   vs   MITCHELS
#12
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 03, 2020, 10:40:29 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 03, 2020, 10:31:28 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 10:23:58 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 03, 2020, 10:19:24 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 08:12:49 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 02, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
This is a failing strategy so the strategy now is to steal the election
If he wins it's because of cheating/fascism/.. is like a football manager yelling at the ref when they lose by 10 points. I.e. look closer to home first on why losing.

Sorry, you're not dealing with reality

Trump is not winning, he is losing badly
So why is he favourite to win the election then?  If you don't acknowledge that right now the election is 50/50 you are not dealing in reality.
Odds are a reflection of money placed

I said months ago when Trump was 6/4 or 7/4 that he was worth a bet because the election would be fixed

Big money bettors are aware that i) the plan is to fix the result and ii) Biden must win by a huge margin to win - a four point win nationally will likely not be enough because the electoral college system massively favours Trump

Latest polls are terrible for Trump

These are swing state polls conducted after the convention

The polls are an accurate reflection of public opinion but they are not an accurate reflection of a rigged election
The polls cannot be relied upon as has been seen many times recently.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-president-gamble/amp/
#13
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 03, 2020, 10:23:58 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 03, 2020, 10:19:24 AM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 03, 2020, 08:12:49 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 02, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
This is a failing strategy so the strategy now is to steal the election
If he wins it's because of cheating/fascism/.. is like a football manager yelling at the ref when they lose by 10 points. I.e. look closer to home first on why losing.

Sorry, you're not dealing with reality

Trump is not winning, he is losing badly
So why is he favourite to win the election then?  If you don't acknowledge that right now the election is 50/50 you are not dealing in reality.
#14
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
September 03, 2020, 08:12:49 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on September 02, 2020, 11:48:58 AM
This is a failing strategy so the strategy now is to steal the election
If he wins it's because of cheating/fascism/.. is like a football manager yelling at the ref when they lose by 10 points. I.e. look closer to home first on why losing.

Some things I have read on here that don't ring true for me.

1) Trump is a terrible speaker.  To me he is a brilliant speaker.  His style might be WWE smackdown but he is the only politician that if I saw was on live I would tune in for 10 minutes just to see if he goes off the prepared script and says something he wasnt supposed to before the secret service get a chance to turn his mike off.
2) He has dementia. He is in his 70s and walked slowly down a gang plank and drinks a glass of water in an unusual way but has anyone who claims he has dementia watched Biden recently?

Some things that could hurt Trump that probably won't.

1) 'Grab a woman ...' would probably hurt him but it was first used by Hillary during debates with Bill squirming in the audience.
2) Ice. Ice detention policy was started before Trump.

A couple of things which it hard to say will help or hurt him.

1) COVID. Lockdowns effect jobs.
2) Black lives matter. BLM matter but not being in favour of wrecking the place doesnt make someone racist.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JoCdiCc1JoM

#15
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
September 01, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on September 01, 2020, 04:08:24 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 01, 2020, 03:42:55 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on September 01, 2020, 03:22:41 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on September 01, 2020, 08:00:34 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 01, 2020, 05:26:49 AM
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/could-ireland-become-the-wayward-child-of-europe-on-covid-response-1.4343216?mode=amp

Ireland, meanwhile, having achieved one of the lowest incidences in Europe in mid-summer, is now struggling to contain fresh outbreaks. So much so that the latest ECDC figures show our figures are higher than both the UK's and Sweden's. (The death rate in Sweden is 60 per cent higher than in Ireland.)
60% higher than 0 in Ireland in the last week?
Where does anyone mention the last week?
No one mentioned any figures.  That's the point.  It is scare mongering to put % figures on death rates when people generally aren't dying of it at the minute.  If there is 1 death in the next week (from or with) and 2 the week after will there be a headline 100% increase in deaths?

Will be plenty of that tonight from journalists when a high number of cases is expected to be reported. A high figure that will include cases from the weekend.
Fair enough.  I'd like to see an article like above to at least mention that the number of deaths at the minute is low.